UFC FN 83: Cowboy vs. Cowboy

Date: Sunday, February 21st
Preliminary Card (UFC Fight Pass): 23:30 LP.net / 2:30pm PST / 5:30pm EST
Preliminary Card (Fox Sports 1): 1:00 LP.net / 4pm PST / 7pm EST
Main Card (Fox Sports 1): 3:00 LP.net / 6pm PST / 9pm EST
Live Streams: http://firstrowus1.eu/




Main Card (Fox Sports 1)

Donald Cerrone (28-7) vs. Alex Oliveira (13-3-1) (Welterweight)
Derek Brunson (14-3) vs. Roan Carneiro (20-9) (Middleweight)
Cody Garbrandt (7-0) vs. Augusto Mendes (5-0) (Bantamweight)
Dennis Bermudez (14-5) vs. Tatsuya Kawajiri (35-8-2) (Featherweight)
Chris Camozzi (22-10) vs. Joe Riggs (41-16) (Middleweight)
James Krause (22-7) vs. Shane Campbell (12-3) (Lightweight)

Preliminary Card (Fox Sports 1)

Alex Garcia (13-2) vs. Sean Strickland (16-1) (Welterweight)
Daniel Sarafian (9-5) vs. Oluwale Bamgbose (5-1) (Middleweight)
Anthony Smith (24-11) vs. Leonardo Augusto Guimaraes (11-1) (Middleweight)
Jonavin Webb (8-1) vs. Nathan Coy (14-6) (Welterweight)

Preliminary Card (UFC Fight Pass)

Marion Reneau (6-2) vs. Ashlee Evans-Smith (3-1) (Women's Bantamweight)
Kelly Faszholz (3-0) vs. Lauren Murphy (8-2) (Women's Bantamweight)
Anthony Hamilton (14-4) vs. Shamil Abdurakhimov (15-3) (Heavyweight)

Other

- It was originally expected to be headlined by a welterweight bout between former UFC Lightweight Championship challenger Donald Cerrone and Tim Means. On February 3, it was announced that Means was informed of a potential USADA anti-doping policy violation stemming from an out-of-competition sample collection. Because there was insufficient time for a full review and proper promotion before the scheduled bout, Means was pulled from the fight by the UFC. The following day, Alex Oliveira was announced as his replacement.
- Sam Alvey was expected to face Daniel Sarafian at the event. Alvey pulled out of the bout in late December after sustaining a broken jaw and was replaced by Oluwale Bamgbose.
- Bryan Barberena was briefly linked to a bout with Jonavin Webb at the event. On January 22, Barberena was pulled from that fight in favor of a match-up with Sage Northcutt on January 30 at UFC on Fox 18, replacing an injured Andrew Holbrook. He was replaced by Nathan Coy.
- A welterweight bout between Brandon Thatch and Siyar Bahadurzada, originally slated for this event was rescheduled due to Thatch's inability to gain clearance for needed medication for the event. The bout will take place two weeks later at UFC 196.

First impression of the match-ups:

• Cerrone > Oliveira
• Brunson > Carneiro
• Garbrandt > Lineker
• Bermudez > Kawajiri
• Thatch > Bahadurzada
• Krause > Campbell
• Garcia > Strickland
• Camozzi > Riggs (lmao @ this fight...)
• Sarafian > Bamgbose
• Smith vs. Guimaraes (dunno)
• Reneau > Smith
• Murphy > Moras
• Abdurakhimov > Hamilton
• Webb > Coy

Oliveira >>> Cerrone
I'm going to milk the odds until the last second.

Actually like Oliveira in this spot too

Oiveira holds his hands low iirc, which leaves himself open to the head kick. He'll also need to be prepared for Cerrone's power double-leg takedown that he uses against guys who aren't elite wrestlers.

I originally liked Oliveira, but I'd want better odds before I bet him.

On February 11 2016 05:11 Minsk wrote: Oliveira >>> Cerrone I'm going to milk the odds until the last second.

I wouldn't go as far as to say Oliveira >>> Cerrone, but i do agree he should be a good bet at +230.

Sup guys. Had to take a little break after that horrific night (atleast for me) where Cruz beat TJ and Pettis sucked dicks.

Agree with pretty much every pick.

Cerrone > Oliveria - Odds seem right to me. I could see Brown Cowboy winning because Cerrone is a slow starter and he's not, but I don't expect it. I think he's under-rated but just matches up nicely for White Cowboy, who I just think is far more seasoned and diverse with that leg game. I also think he'll look better at 70, he was such a massive LW, although Oliveira is a big LW too. I like Oliveria's game but I don't see how he's gonna deal with Cerrone at range. 29-28 Cerrone.

Brunson > Carneiro - I'm high on Brunson and think its a great matchup for him so long as he doesn't make a huge mistake. Brunson via GnP after hurting him on the feet.

Garbrandt > Linekar - Nightmare matchup for Linekar if Garbrandt fights smart. He's got very good fightwork and plenty of reach on Linekar when you include their legs and frames. I really doubt Linekar wins a decision. I like the odds on Cody even though he under-performed last time out. He also has been training at Jackson's which is obv >>>>> Alpha Bad. Garbrandt via 29-28 decision.

Bermudez > Kawajiri - Kawajiri will probably gas and get finished unless he's able to catch Bermudez in a brawl because Bermudez can go a hard 3 and is pretty violent and despite his bad losses on paper, he hasn't looked bad in them. Bermudez via 2nd round KO.

Thatch > Siyar - They are giving Thatch a guy who is a WelterWeight slightly better Artem Lobov coming off multiple injuries and a layoff. If he loses this he's one of the bigger busts in recent memory. Thatch via 1st round KO.

Krause > Campbell - Threat of TD and all around MMA seasoning should get Krause by an equal or perhaps better pure striker. Krause via decision.

Garcia > Strickland - Can't be overly confident though even though I bet the odds will open at -350ish, Garcia looked awful vs Swick coming off the ACL and Strickland has managed to look terrible but also UFC level at the same time. Garcia via decision.

Camozzi > Riggs - Pretty big lock IMO. Camozzi isn't terrible and fights relatively intelligently, that's pretty much enough for me. Camozzi via 1st round TKO.

Bangbose > Sarafian - Just hoping. I like the crazy Jamaican. But I do think he can win if he's learned to grapple just a bit. Bangbose via 2nd round KO.

Murphy > Moraes (I can't believe she's still in the UFC) - Murphy via decision.

Reneau v Smith - Pickem

Abdurakhimov > Hamilton

Webb > Coy

Good to see u back sober. I myself had an horrible night that time (i copy most of ur bets so.....) and i actually recently stopped betting on 5dimes, only did DK teams. Seems to work better for me so far, since it prevents me from tilting xD

Randleman passed away, damn dude was only 44
RIP

On February 12 2016 04:54 drone666 wrote: Randleman passed away, damn dude was only 44 RIP

Damn. RIP Randleman. He was a troubled soul but seemed like a good enough dude.

On February 12 2016 03:35 Floofy wrote: Good to see u back sober. I myself had an horrible night that time (i copy most of ur bets so.....) and i actually recently stopped betting on 5dimes, only did DK teams. Seems to work better for me so far, since it prevents me from tilting xD

TY Floofy.... and sorry. Humbling experience. Will be more selective, less arrogant and try to do better :D although I doubt you'll be tailing me now haha.

Either way, good to have the stink of losing and over-betting gone for now at least, I completely separated from the MMA-sphere out of pure disgust with myself (only because I was so overly confident).

I'm gonna start doing DK as well - I think the fish and lack of strategy make up for the juice - conceptually its all the same but it will take a while to figure out the best way to weigh upside vs consistency, how many lineups to make and what kind of contests certain lineups fit best in (if it even matters, I suspect it does), but I doubt its hard to get ahead of the curve.

I figure while DK may suck for fantasy football because well-funded think-tanks create like 100 optimal lineups based on advanced algorithms and consistently take a lions-share of the big money, I doubt anyone is doing that for MMA. Could be wrong though.

Good do see you back, soberstone. Your posts always valuable. Take it slow and steady and you will be back on the horse in no time.

If you don't mind me asking whats your yield % guys ? PR and soberstone in particular, guessing you d share, considering you guys share pretty much every bet you make

A fist fight between two really good athletes can always surprise you with variance once in awhile no matter how much we think we know...esp if you're involved in such volume. Just kinda keep that in mind so maybe you go all in a little less and you'll be good Sober

I liked the odds on Cody too at first but I dunno. There's something about the way Cody fights and the way he is...that makes me think he won't fight the smartest plan against Lineker and will get caught a number of times if you were running this back several times. Still probably going to go with Cody but won't feel great about it

On February 12 2016 03:35 Floofy wrote: Good to see u back sober. I myself had an horrible night that time (i copy most of ur bets so.....) and i actually recently stopped betting on 5dimes, only did DK teams. Seems to work better for me so far, since it prevents me from tilting xD

You know what can be tilting about DK? Finally having a nice lineup in a gpp only to go back and check and realize like 25 other people had the exact same lineup and you gotta share the monies. Yeah you still won money but fuck sharing with that many people. Fortunately this doesn't happen very often for me. I've been a loser on like 2 of every 3 MMA events like a champ for a little while now on DK

On February 12 2016 22:09 Spitfiree wrote: If you don't mind me asking whats your yield % guys ? PR and soberstone in particular, guessing you d share, considering you guys share pretty much every bet you make

I don't track my wins/loss and percentages. Since it's a hobby, I don't feel the need to keep track of any percentages, I just pay attention to how big/small my bankroll is. Also, I've had the same unit size ($10) for 3+ years, even when I lose a lot or win a lot.

If I consistently bet every UFC event and didn't take 4-6 months off from betting every year due to school, it'd probably be worth tracking my bets. (I just bet on the most recent UFC card, but I won't bet any other UFC cards until late-May 2016, aside from a few important fights like Conor vs. RDA and other title fights with good odds)

On February 12 2016 22:26 iakim322 wrote: Show nested quote + On February 12 2016 03:35 Floofy wrote: Good to see u back sober. I myself had an horrible night that time (i copy most of ur bets so.....) and i actually recently stopped betting on 5dimes, only did DK teams. Seems to work better for me so far, since it prevents me from tilting xD You know what can be tilting about DK? Finally having a nice lineup in a gpp only to go back and check and realize like 25 other people had the exact same lineup and you gotta share the monies. Yeah you still won money but fuck sharing with that many people. Fortunately this doesn't happen very often for me. I've been a loser on like 2 of every 3 MMA events like a champ for a little while now on DK

I know your pain... ...I've gotten 1st place in two different GPPs on DraftKings, and I had to share the first win with 40 people, and the second win with 30 people.

On February 12 2016 05:58 soberstone wrote: Show nested quote + On February 12 2016 03:35 Floofy wrote: Good to see u back sober. I myself had an horrible night that time (i copy most of ur bets so.....) and i actually recently stopped betting on 5dimes, only did DK teams. Seems to work better for me so far, since it prevents me from tilting xD TY Floofy.... and sorry. Humbling experience. Will be more selective, less arrogant and try to do better :D although I doubt you'll be tailing me now haha. Either way, good to have the stink of losing and over-betting gone for now at least, I completely separated from the MMA-sphere out of pure disgust with myself (only because I was so overly confident). I'm gonna start doing DK as well - I think the fish and lack of strategy make up for the juice - conceptually its all the same but it will take a while to figure out the best way to weigh upside vs consistency, how many lineups to make and what kind of contests certain lineups fit best in (if it even matters, I suspect it does), but I doubt its hard to get ahead of the curve. I figure while DK may suck for fantasy football because well-funded think-tanks create like 100 optimal lineups based on advanced algorithms and consistently take a lions-share of the big money, I doubt anyone is doing that for MMA. Could be wrong though.

There's 2 reasons i like DK
#1: Much easier to refill BR if needed.
#2 Can't tilt on DK or overbet.

I still really like 5dimes but i think ill take a break because i can't follow br management properly.

On February 12 2016 22:09 Spitfiree wrote: If you don't mind me asking whats your yield % guys ? PR and soberstone in particular, guessing you d share, considering you guys share pretty much every bet you make

i don't track the % but i can say i'm a loser so far.

On February 12 2016 22:09 Spitfiree wrote: If you don't mind me asking whats your yield % guys ? PR and soberstone in particular, guessing you d share, considering you guys share pretty much every bet you make

Last year was my first year tracking and I had an ROI of 11 % over 479 bets placed. Problem is, I am not a great gambler apparently and made my biggest bet of the year on Chris Weidman and completely broke all bankrolling rules to do it because I was at the event and let emotion overcome me - which is not an excuse, it's actually a big red flag - prior to that the ROI was much better. But if it is an excuse, I would have had a much better ROI and obviously won a lot more money.

Than this year I upped my unit sizing dramatically and did awful on the 1st card, so I decided to withdraw my initial investment, take a break, and start low and not take it as seriously. I think it actually started hurting me overthinking shit and was hurting my quality of life spending so much time researching to an unhealthy not enjoyable degree - almost like a drug, I started getting anti-social and depressed - which is pathetic to say but its true, so hopefully I'm not a degenerate gambler because that would mean I'm bound to repeat my mistakes but I think I just had/have an unhealthy addiction to MMA. Like anything though, moderation and passion are key, I lost sight of that for sure.

Anyway, bets for this card so far:

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