UFC on FOX 17: dos Anjos vs. Cerrone 2

Date: Saturday, December 19th
Preliminary Card (UFC Fight Pass): 21:30 LP.net / 12:30pm PST / 3:30pm EST
Preliminary Card (Fox Sports 1): 23:00 LP.net / 2pm PST / 5pm EST
Main Card (PPV): 2:00 LP.net / 5pm PST / 8pm EST
Live Streams: http://firstrowus1.eu/





Main Card (FOX)

Rafael dos Anjos (24-7) vs. Donald Cerrone (28-6) (Lightweight Championship)
Junior dos Santos (17-3) vs. Alistair Overeem (39-14) (Heavyweight)
Michael Johnson (16-9) vs. Nate Diaz (17-10) (Lightweight)
Randa Markos (5-2) vs. Karolina Kowalkiewicz (7-0) (Women's Strawweight)

Preliminary Card (Fox Sports 1)

Charles Oliveira (20-5) vs. Myles Jury (15-1) (Featherweight)
C.B. Dollaway (15-7) vs. Nate Marquardt (33-15-2) (Middleweight)
Sarah Kaufman (17-3) vs. Valentina Shevchenko (11-1) (Women's Bantamweight)
Josh Samman (12-2) vs. Tamdan McCrory (13-3) (Middleweight)
Nik Lentz (25-7-2) vs. Danny Castillo (17-9) (Lightweight)
Cole Miller (21-9) vs. Jim Alers (13-2) (Featherweight)

Preliminary Card (UFC Fight Pass)

Leon Edwards (10-2) vs. Kamaru Usman (6-1) (Welterweight)
Hayder Hassan (6-2) vs. Vicente Luque (7-5-1) (Welterweight)
Luiz Henrique (8-1) vs. Francis Ngannou (5-1) (Heavyweight)

Other

- Germaine de Randamie was scheduled to face Sarah Kaufman at the event. However, De Randamie pulled out of the fight on December 3 citing an injury. She was replaced by Valentina Shevchenko.

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First impression of the match-ups:

• RDA > Cerrone
• Overeem > JDS
• Johnson > Diaz (would be cool if MJ didn't use his wrestling, but I doubt it.)
• Kowalkiewicz > Markos
• Oliveira > Jury
• Dollaway > Marquardt
• Kaufman vs. Shevchenko (dunno)
• McCrory > Samman
• Lentz > Castillo
• Alers > Miller
• Edwards vs. Usman (dunno)
• Hassan vs. Luque (dunno)
• Henrique vs. Ngannou (dunno)

I'm taking Cerrone on this if the odds are really good which I think they will be. No IV rule means no more roido for RDA. I have had suspicions about this guy and we'll see if I'm correct or just a retard. Plus Cerrone is just way more awesome

On December 14 2015 01:13 whamm! wrote: I'm taking Cerrone on this if the odds are really good which I think they will be. No IV rule means no more roido for RDA. I have had suspicions about this guy and we'll see if I'm correct or just a retard. Plus Cerrone is just way more awesome

https://www.instagram.com/rdosanjosmma/

He looks pretty good still.

Cerrone one time via head kick round 1 plz so we can see cerrone vs mecgregor ufc 200

On December 14 2015 02:01 LikeASet wrote: Cerrone one time via head kick round 1 plz so we can see cerrone vs mecgregor ufc 200

I wonder what odds will be if it happens, McGregor vs Cerrone

I will be all over McGregor

Both have improved a lot but the last time they fought Cerrone was not really beat up in round 3 and RDA was starting to fade a bit. I think Cerrone being more aggressive early in his recent fights (and more relentless with his strikes from distance) will give RDA more problems than people think. I'd like to bet on Cerrone here in a 5 round war.

Cerrone sleeping RDA via head kick in round 1 would be amazing

I must be biased but I feel like the MJ/Diaz odds should be a little closer than over 4:1. Nate's still terrible at checking leg kicks properly but that's not what MJ does. MJ's quickness and boxing is really good. Gotta guess the gameplan is to use his large quickness advantage to dart in with flurries and move out laterally to not stay on the end of Nate's length and rinse/repeat. Not thinking Nate can stop that at all at first but if MJ can't really hurt Nate with those, would like to think an actual in shape Nate, not the one who showed up for RDA, can put enough eventual pressure on more than 1 in 4 times. Guess it does hurt that it's only for three rounds

Little sad about Weidman still. Still not sure how much of being confident on him was a bit of bias. Luke was clearly better everywhere...surprisingly by a significant margin in some areas like clinch control. Though he really was starting to breathe hard before he got a burst of energy by countering what turned out to be the worst thrown kick in a title fight (based on consequences following it) I've ever seen. Don't think it would've been the craziest 'what if' outlier in MMA to have seen an eventual Weidman win on that particular night if the silly notion of that kick hadn't ever occurred in his head. People instantly forgot that the first round was pretty 50/50 (MMAfighting scored it for Chris) and that Chris was probably winning a fairly uneventful third round til the kick...mostly because Luke won Rd 2 really hard and you can't get the image of what happened after out of your head. Was pretty hard watching the replay showing Weidman trying to throw up desperate punches from the bottom while fully mounted and after having absorbed about forty direct ground head strikes...and I'm sure already badly concussed...because he had so much heart trying anything to convince the ref to let it continue to the bell as he was getting beat all to hell

bets on RDA at -210 and Overeem at +280.

I see RDA dominating Cerrone in this match up. He is better than him everywhere and looks to be improving every time he steps in the cage. Cerrone can certainly cause him problems with his kicks and knees if he is able to establish his range, but I don't see that happening. RDA is probably even better than the last time they fought and Cowboy is remaining stagnant.

The Reem vs JDS is great fight and a long time coming. I think this is a pickem fight. Overeem has every advantage in the technical aspect of the game and I think the skills to expose Junior big weakness in the clinch. Still as we know with him there is every chance he completely dominates the fight until he becomes careless and getting KO'd out of nowhere. At this odds thought - definitely value in betting him.

On a side note Nate Diaz is looking in great shape for this fight:


Still think Michael Johnson movement should cause him big trouble, as Diaz brothers are struggling with that and he will get beaten down again.

I think RDA still has to prove himself even though he destroyed Pettis, however he didn't finish him even though he landed pretty nasty shots right in the beginning that made the fight the way it went. Cerrone s a decent test considering Nurmagumedov will probably retire? and everyone else in the division s just meh.
RDA was in probably in the best shape in his life during the Pettis fight so I think he will be a bit overhyped
I just hope if RDA wins McGregor wont pussy out of his words and fight him

My biggest pre-fight bet is 5u on Tamdan +145. There's some nice money to be made on this card.

If the same RDA that fought Pettis fights Cerrone he destroys him I think. Sure he slowed down in the first fight but thats before he went super sayain. A lot of fighters haven't been looking themselves lately so I don't even know what to think.

On December 15 2015 23:44 Stim_Abuser wrote: If the same RDA that fought Pettis fights Cerrone he destroys him. A lot of fighters haven't been looking themselves lately so I don't even know what to think.

Exactly my thoughts, but i honnestly doubt he has faded enough to lose that, so ill go with RDA

Edwards +175 looked like a dream, then i checked out his opponement, and i might just pass.

What do u guys think of Oliveira a +105?

Will post bets as I makem

RDA v Cerrone - Totally depends on what version of who shows up. Bet Cerrone at +250 a long time ago after line opened because of the juice issue. If RDA looks good, I'll probably buy-out of that at a profit, if not, I'll hold strong.
JDS > Overeem - Odds seem way too wide though.
Johnson > Diaz
Jury > Oliveria
Dolloway > Marquardt
Kaufman v ?
McCorry v Samman - Dunno, need to study the barncat and see how he matches up
Castillo > Lentz
Miller > Alers
Usman v Edwards - Dunno, need to see what kind of TDD and defensive footwork Edwards is working with
Luque > Hassan
? v ?

+ Show Spoiler +

On December 14 2015 16:09 Spitfiree wrote: I think RDA still has to prove himself even though he destroyed Pettis, however he didn't finish him even though he landed pretty nasty shots right in the beginning that made the fight the way it went. Cerrone s a decent test considering Nurmagumedov will probably retire? and everyone else in the division s just meh. RDA was in probably in the best shape in his life during the Pettis fight so I think he will be a bit overhyped I just hope if RDA wins McGregor wont pussy out of his words and fight him

IIRC Khabib already said he isn't retiring and is targetting..... I wanna say sometime spring 2016 for return? Can't remember. Maybe I just dreamt this tho but pretty sure.

Some thoughts on the RDA vs Cerrone rematch.

The one thing I noticed upon re-watching RDA vs Cerrone and subsequent tape is that even juice aside, RDA is a superior fighter, HOWEVER, Cerrone seems to match up with him really well relative to how good they are individually in a vacuum.

RDA's left body and occasional head kick, straight left, and unpredictable level changes or clinch initiations (followed by a great set of trips and top-game) are the crux of his offensive game.

The clinch and bottom game of Cerrone are unreal good. Equally elite are his threat of his counter-knee's vs level changing opponents, so he seemed to feel comfortable striking freely even with a guy as dangerous as RDA.

That said, in their first fight, Cerrone actually did really well in neutralizing the straight left and body kicks by being such an experienced striker and knowing how to use his range and knowledge to see it all coming and block and counter. RDA didn't seem comfortable throwing his best strikes.

But RDA still out-struck him with forward pressure, volume, and speed.

Where Cerrone actually did get caught and rattled consistently was RDA's right hook, which isn't that great but he landed for whatever reason (the fact that he was just the more durable, faster, pressuring guy is probably the reason in conjunction with Cerrone's non-existent head-movement, he relies completely on his guard and length for defense)

All of this, combined with the 5 round factor, the juicing factor, the RDA layoff factor, and the 2:1ish odds make me like Cerrone's odds, even if it's still an 80 percent RDA.

All that said, I still gotta lean RDA because at his peak, he's levels above anything Cerrone has ever even come close to. In fact, I think the RDA vs Pettis fight, that RDA on that night was the best light-weight we've ever seen in the Octagon, and may see for a while unless McGregor turns out to be even more of a God than he already is.

He was so good and so juiced vs Pettis that he was just an unstoppable robot. It was an insane performance. It really is more insane upon re-watch.

I think RDA is very good but also very overrated after he beat Pettis on a stylistic advantage. I think Cerrone is very good and underrated, and I can't see it possibly being more than 60/40 for RDA. I think there is good value on Cerrone.

RDA's main focal points are Leg Kicks, Constant Rhythmic Pressure, and Good Ground Game. None of which seem particularly great against Cerrone. It's like the things hes improved since their last fight, the things that made RDA very good shouldn't be huge advantages.

On December 16 2015 06:55 soberstone wrote: I think the RDA vs Pettis fight, that RDA on that night was the best light-weight we've ever seen in the Octagon. He was so good and so juiced vs Pettis that he was just an unstoppable robot.

Really like Cerrone and like your analysis on their matchup but ^^ is why I'm just going to pass. Some fights kinda widen your eyes because it's a crazy knockout of nowhere. That one was similar yet different where afterwards...just kinda shaking your head at how ridiculous RDA was for every minute of all five rounds.

Actually going to go small on Cerrone in hopes that the testing and layoff factors play out to be larger than I initially thought

On December 16 2015 22:46 Minsk wrote: I think RDA is very good but also very overrated after he beat Pettis on a stylistic advantage. I think Cerrone is very good and underrated, and I can't see it possibly being more than 60/40 for RDA. I think there is good value on Cerrone.

Where is Cerrone really underrated though? I think people's general opinion on him is pretty on par. Nice range of kicks with elite power. Dangerous with subs off his back and super quick at capitalizing with subs if he hurts you. Slowly improved his hands but still not the best IQ or as fluid with them in comparison to top level. Pretty susceptible to infighting on the feet if he's not moving forward with knees. Eddie Alvarez got in chains of dirty boxing uppercuts on him and Cerrone just kinda stood there taking them for awhile.

Really rooting for him though.