https://www.liquidpoker.net/


LP international Poland    Contact            Users: 167 Active, 0 Logged in - Time: 06:11

UFC FN 74: Holloway vs. Oliveira

New to LiquidPoker? Register here for free!
Forum Index > Sports and Betting
 1 
  2 
  3 
  4 
  > 
  Last 
  All 
PuertoRican   United States. Aug 13 2015 23:01. Posts 13023

Date: Sunday, August 23rd
Preliminary Card (UFC Fight Pass): 23:00 LP.net / 3pm PST / 6pm EST
Preliminary Card (Fox Sports 1): 23:59 LP.net / 4pm PST / 7pm EST
Main Card (Fox Sports 1): 2:00 LP.net / 6pm PST / 9pm EST
Live Streams: http://firstrowus1.eu/




Main Card (Fox Sports 1)

Max Holloway (13-3) vs. Charles Oliveira (20-4) (Featherweight)
Neil Magny (15-4) vs. Erick Silva (18-5) (Welterweight)
Patrick Cote (21-9) vs. Josh Burkman (27-11) (Welterweight)
Chad Laprise (10-0) vs. Francisco Trinaldo (17-4) (Lightweight)
Olivier Aubin-Mercier (6-1) vs. Tony Sims (12-2) (Lightweight)
Maryna Moroz (6-0) vs. Valerie Letourneau (7-3) (Women's Strawweight)

Preliminary Card (Fox Sports 1)

Sam Stout (20-11-1) vs. Frankie Perez (9-2) (Lightweight)
Yves Jabouin (20-10) vs. Felipe Arantes (16-7-1) (Bantamweight)
Marcos Rogerio de Lima (13-2-1) vs. Nikita Krylov (18-4) (Light Heavyweight)
Chris Kelades (8-2) vs. Chris Beal (10-1) (Flyweight)

Preliminary Card (UFC Fight Pass)

Shane Campbell (11-3) vs. Elias Silverio (11-1) (Lightweight)
Misha Cirkunov (9-2) vs. Daniel Jolly (5-0) (Light Heavyweight)

Other

- Two fights, Rick Story vs. Erick Silva and Marcos Rogerio de Lima vs. Nikita Krylov were originally expected to take place at UFC Fight Night: Machida vs. Romero. However, on June 19, it was announced that several bouts would be postponed and moved to other events as international fighters experienced travel restrictions due to technical issues within the Bureau of Consular Affairs division of the U.S. State Department, which produces travel visas. The two pairings were left intact and were rescheduled for this event. On August 11, an injury forced Story out of the bout and Neil Magny stepped in to take his place. Magny had previously fought only 22 days before the event, when he was defeated by Demian Maia at UFC 190.
- Chris Wade was expected to face Olivier Aubin-Mercier at the event. However, Wade pulled out of the bout in late July after sustaining an injury and was replaced by Tony Sims.
- Sean O'Connell was expected to face UFC newcomer Misha Cirkunov at the event. However, O'Connell pulled out of the bout on August 11 due to undisclosed reasons and was replaced by another UFC newcomer in Daniel Jolly.

Facebook Twitter
Rekrul is a newb 

PuertoRican   United States. Aug 13 2015 23:05. Posts 13023

First impression of the match-ups:

• Holloway > Oliveira
• Magny > Silva
• Burkman > Cote
• Laprise > Trinaldo
• Sims > Mercier
• Moroz > Letourneau
• Perez > Stout
• Jabouin > Arantes
• Lima > Krylov
• Kelades > Beal
• Campbell > Silverio
• Cirkunov vs. Kelly (dunno)

Rekrul is a newb 

northsails   Bulgaria. Aug 14 2015 00:36. Posts 410

I like Charles Oliveira very much here.


Nazgul    Netherlands. Aug 14 2015 01:32. Posts 7080

Holloway impressed me way too much last fight to go with Oliveira. It's a sick sick fight.

You almost twin-caracked his AK - JonnyCosmo 

soberstone   United States. Aug 14 2015 04:07. Posts 2662

Holloway > Oliveria
Silva - Magney - Pickem
Burkman > Cote
Laprise > Trinaldo
Sims > Mercier
Moroz > Letourneau
Perez > Stout
Arantes - Jabouin - Dunno yet, want to see weigh-ins
Lima > Krylov
Kelades > Beal
Silverio - Campbell - Pickem
Cirkunov > Kelly

Agree with Rican a lot here.


soberstone   United States. Aug 14 2015 04:28. Posts 2662

Huge on Holloway.

Chuck won't be able to fight his fight vs the guy with superior movement, output, cardio, striking, power, chin.

I'll be nervous if Chuck is getting easy body-lock takedowns and is able to play the submission game but I'm pretty sure Max will be well prepared and smart enough to stay well away from that shenanigans.

Oliveria's Jiu Jitsu is magical but anyone decent he has subbed has been a straight wrestler or grappler who engage with him for extended periods of time on the mat.

Holloway tko rds 2-4

Bets (will add as I go).

+ Show Spoiler +

 Last edit: 22/08/2015 20:45

Minsk   United States. Aug 14 2015 18:28. Posts 1558

Holloway ML
Probably Magny ML at these odds
Probably Burkman ML
Trinaldo ML

I thought Moroz was pretty good

rest I don't know.


PuertoRican   United States. Aug 15 2015 01:19. Posts 13023

If you're bored, CES MMA 30 is gonna be on AXS TV tonight (Friday the 14th) at 6pm PST/9pm EST/2:00 LP.net time.

I'm not familiar with CES, but they have some low level fighters who I know about, and since the fight is on television, there should be at least 2 or so entertaining fights.

Julian Lane vs. Luis Felix (CES Lightweight Championship)
Matt Bessette vs. Lenny Wheeler
Dinis Paiva vs. Chino Duran
Patrick Walsh vs. Jesse McElligott
Dan Lauzon vs. Chip Moraza-Pollard
Andres Jeudi vs. Leon Davis
Peggy Morgan vs. Jessica Miele
Gary Balletto Jr. vs. Anthony Giacchina
Rico DiSciullo vs. Jake Constant
Manny Bermudez vs. Mak Kelleher
Chris Caterino vs. Jacob Smith

Rekrul is a newbLast edit: 15/08/2015 01:20

soberstone   United States. Aug 15 2015 02:42. Posts 2662

Julian Lane



Edit: Love how Sam Alvey is right there and is so relevant now

 Last edit: 15/08/2015 02:43

northsails   Bulgaria. Aug 15 2015 11:10. Posts 410

While I was very impressed by him in his recent outings, I feel like Holloway will have trouble staying away from the grappling of Oliveira. He is going to be in big disadvantage there.

 Last edit: 15/08/2015 11:11

Nazgul    Netherlands. Aug 16 2015 01:47. Posts 7080

So far I have

  • Magny $30 at +155
  • Burkman vs Cote $140 at -140 on it going to decision
  • $67,50 on Burkman winning the fight at -135



I would have loved Holloway at -185, but he's around -220 now so don't think I'll go for that. Obviously small bets so not really confident in them.

You almost twin-caracked his AK - JonnyCosmoLast edit: 16/08/2015 01:52

soberstone   United States. Aug 16 2015 06:29. Posts 2662

Magny vs Silva is a really weird fight.

Nothing would surprise me.

My heart is completely sure Silva is going to win, but my head tells me that's ridiculous and that Silva should be closer to a pickem vs all decent WW, especially those with gas tanks.

I'm staying away, I think it's a really nuanced fight that really depends on whether Magny will actually have a decent gameplan or not on short notice and I have no clue.


Minsk   United States. Aug 17 2015 00:07. Posts 1558

Silva is really exploitative, he looks best against bums, and just off the fact that Magny is no bum, I like him at these odds. Although I feel the same way heart/head.


soberstone   United States. Aug 18 2015 19:27. Posts 2662

This isn't even a hedge, this is a value play:

322832574-1 8/18/15 2:25pm $25.00 $631.25 Pending 8/23/15 11:00pm Props Fighting 1045 Oliveira wins by 5 round split/maj dec +2525* vs Any other result
322832360-1 8/18/15 2:23pm $25.00 $631.25 Pending 8/23/15 11:00pm Props Fighting 1045 Oliveira wins by 5 round split/maj dec +2525* vs Any other result


PuertoRican   United States. Aug 18 2015 20:41. Posts 13023


  On August 18 2015 18:27 soberstone wrote:
This isn't even a hedge, this is a value play:

322832574-1 8/18/15 2:25pm $25.00 $631.25 Pending 8/23/15 11:00pm Props Fighting 1045 Oliveira wins by 5 round split/maj dec +2525* vs Any other result
322832360-1 8/18/15 2:23pm $25.00 $631.25 Pending 8/23/15 11:00pm Props Fighting 1045 Oliveira wins by 5 round split/maj dec +2525* vs Any other result



I wouldn't call this a value betat all. It looks like a standard prop that is priced at over +2000 because it's very unlikely it will hit.

Betting split-decision props is kinda of a fish move, especially two separate bets on the same split-decision prop.

Good luck either way.

Rekrul is a newb 

soberstone   United States. Aug 19 2015 01:19. Posts 2662

Most robberies are splits, I just looked up 2014 and 2015 biggest robberies and it was mostly splits (which makes sense considering it's a close fight where at least 1 judge sees it correctly many more times than all 3 seeing it wrong, that's just basic probability theory and if you don't understand that concept you are probably a losing gambler - although I also probably worded that very poorly).

The robbery rate on lighter-weight fights alone nearly touches 3-5 percent (more go to decision + more parody), so split that in two and that's already close to the bet itself.

I am getting the bet at 3.5 percent implied odds.

Then you take into account an arbitrary amount of times that this is a back and forth close fight that is also more than likely a split, again, basic probabilities with an odd number of judges. You think that number is less than a percent? I'd call you a fish if you thought that.

But if you want to actually explain with logic why the odds are poor, I'd be open-minded to re-evaluating my thought process, instead of just stating your opinion.

It might very well be a fish bet, but I'd like to be convinced.


 

especially two separate bets on the same split-decision prop.




PS Wtf does two separate bets matter, they were 1 minute apart and I realized I wanted to put a full unit on it instead of half - how can that possibly affect the bet itself when the odds are exactly the same, what a ridiculous statement.


Zadan   Canada. Aug 19 2015 04:27. Posts 971

think you are being too tough on soberstone there with your comments PR,
he put a small bet on an unlikely outcome yes....but with big payout, its not like he dropped huge money on it
If Oliviera does end up winning not by submission, I'd lean more towards split decision as opposed to unanimous


Minsk   United States. Aug 19 2015 05:59. Posts 1558

 Last edit: 19/08/2015 06:01

soberstone   United States. Aug 19 2015 15:57. Posts 2662

Oliveira wins by split/majority decision is now at +1685 so I guess it probably wasn't so awful at +2525.

Also, I'm a shitty speller and meant parity, not parody.


traxamillion   United States. Aug 20 2015 19:13. Posts 10468

That's a huge swing looks like that +2525 bet was def +ev. I've been betting a lot of baseball lately and movement like that doesn't exist, finding that swing would be like finding the end of a rainbow. Nice1


 
 1 
  2 
  3 
  4 
  > 
  Last 
  All 



Poker Streams

















Copyright © 2024. LiquidPoker.net All Rights Reserved
Contact Advertise Sitemap