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UFC on Fox 16: Dillashaw vs. Barao 2

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PuertoRican   United States. Jul 19 2015 19:21. Posts 13024

Date: Saturday, July 25th
Preliminary Card (UFC Fight Pass): 21:15 LP.net / 1:15pm PST / 4:15pm EST
Preliminary Card (FOX): 23:00 LP.net / 3pm PST / 6pm EST
Main Card (FOX): 1:00 LP.net / 5pm PST / 8pm EST
Live Streams: http://www.vipbox.tv (All MMA events are listed under the UFC button. Press the UFC button and you'll see the event in the list.)




Main Card (FOX)

T.J. Dillashaw (11-2) vs. Renan Barao (33-2) (Bantamweight Championship)
Miesha Tate (16-5) vs. Jessica Eye (11-2) (Women's Bantamweight Title Eliminator)
Edson Barboza (15-3) vs. Paul Felder (10-0) (Lightweight)
Joe Lauzon (24-10) vs. Takanori Gomi (35-10) (Lightweight)

Preliminary Card (FOX)

Gian Villante (13-5) vs. Tom Lawlor (9-5) (Light Heavyweight)
Jim Miller (24-6) vs. Danny Castillo (17-8) (Lightweight)
Kenny Robertson (15-3) vs. Ben Saunders (18-6-2) (Welterweight)
Eddie Wineland (21-10-1) vs. Bryan Caraway (19-7) (Bantamweight)

Preliminary Card (UFC Fight Pass)

Daron Cruickshank (16-6) vs. James Krause (21-7) (Lightweight)
Ramsey Nijem (9-5) vs. Andrew Holbrook (9-0) (Lightweight)
Jessamyn Duke (3-2) vs. Elizabeth Phillips (4-3) (Women's Bantamweight)
Zak Cummings (17-4) vs. Dominique Steele (13-5) (Welterweight)

Other

- The event is expected to be headlined by a UFC Bantamweight Championship rematch between current champion T.J. Dillashaw and former champion Renan Barao. Their first fight took place at UFC 173 and ended in a fifth round TKO victory for Dillashaw that won him the title. Prior to this event, the rematch had been rescheduled for two other events. The first of which was UFC 177, where Barao withdrew from the bout on the day of weigh-ins, as he had to be admitted to a hospital as a result of his attempts to cut weight. The second was UFC 186, where Dillashaw withdrew from the bout due to a broken rib.
- The co-main event is expected to feature a UFC Women's Bantamweight Championship title eliminator bout between former Strikeforce Women's Bantamweight champion Miesha Tate and Jessica Eye.
- Former UFC Lightweight champion Anthony Pettis was expected to face Myles Jury at the event. However, Pettis pulled out of the bout on May 7 due to an elbow injury and was replaced by Edson Barboza. In turn, Jury pulled out the bout on June 9 due to an injury and was replaced by Paul Felder.
- A lightweight bout between Danny Castillo and Rustam Khabilov that was previously scheduled for UFC 182 was expected to take place at this event. However, once again, Khabilov was pulled from the bout due to complications with his visa. Castillo is expected to remain on the card against Jim Miller.
- Erik Koch was expected to face Ramsey Nijem at the event. However, Koch pulled out of the bout in late June due to an injury and was replaced by promotional newcomer Andrew Holbrook.
- Antonio Braga Neto was expected to face Zak Cummings at this event. However, Neto pulled out of the bout in early July due to an injury and was replaced by promotional newcomer Dominique Steele.

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Rekrul is a newb 

PuertoRican   United States. Jul 19 2015 19:27. Posts 13024




First impression of the match-ups:

• Dillashaw > Barao
• Tate > Eye
• Felder > Barboza
• Lauzon vs. Gomi (dunno)
• Villante > Lawlor
• Castillo > Miller
• Saunders > Robertson
• Wineland > Caraway
• Krause > Cruickshank
• Nijem vs. Holbrook (dunno)
• Phillips > Duke
• Cummings > Steele

Rekrul is a newb 

soberstone   United States. Jul 19 2015 21:01. Posts 2662

Pretty sick free card.

 Last edit: 19/07/2015 21:01

soberstone   United States. Jul 19 2015 21:33. Posts 2662

Early parlay on some lines I liked that just opened:

$20.00 $286.19 Pending 5 Team Parlay
Pending 7/25/15 10:00pm UFC Fighting 1002 T.J. Dillashaw -220* vs Renan Barao
Pending 7/25/15 9:00pm UFC Fighting 1101 Jessica Eye +130* vs Miesha Tate
Pending 7/25/15 8:00pm UFC Fighting 1302 Joe Lauzon -210* vs Takanori Gomi
Pending 7/25/15 7:30pm UFC Fighting 1402 Gian Villante -210* vs Tom Lawlor
Pending 7/25/15 7:00pm UFC Fighting 1501 Danny Castillo +110* vs Jim Miller


PuertoRican   United States. Jul 19 2015 22:04. Posts 13024


  On July 19 2015 20:33 soberstone wrote:
Early parlay on some lines I liked that just opened:

$20.00 $286.19 Pending 5 Team Parlay
Pending 7/25/15 10:00pm UFC Fighting 1002 T.J. Dillashaw -220* vs Renan Barao
Pending 7/25/15 9:00pm UFC Fighting 1101 Jessica Eye +130* vs Miesha Tate
Pending 7/25/15 8:00pm UFC Fighting 1302 Joe Lauzon -210* vs Takanori Gomi
Pending 7/25/15 7:30pm UFC Fighting 1402 Gian Villante -210* vs Tom Lawlor
Pending 7/25/15 7:00pm UFC Fighting 1501 Danny Castillo +110* vs Jim Miller



You're gonna end up sweating the Eye vs. Tate match. Eye is the better pure boxer, but not by much these days, since Tate has improved her hands. Eye goes inactive in her fights, which has cost her in the past. Also, if Tate gets Eye to the ground, which I fully expect her to, Eye won't have anything to offer.

I expect Tate to win by a decision most of the time, and a submission the rest of the time. Eye could win, too, but she needs to box consistently for 3 full rounds and defend the take down, but I don't think she'll be able to.

Rekrul is a newb 

soberstone   United States. Jul 19 2015 22:04. Posts 2662

I really like Felder and hope he has a break through performance but I can't bet him at these close odds when stylistically he is going right into Barboza's wheelhouse, a straight kickboxing match where the guys look for counters on the outside.

Barboza's flaw typically comes vs pressure I don't see Felder fighting that way. I do think Felder has the higher ceiling if he's able to up the volume and improve his straight boxing.


Minsk   United States. Jul 19 2015 22:57. Posts 1558

I think Barao should be favored in this odds-wise, I don't think one win against a sluggish Barao with a very significant punch should make Dillashaw a favorite here and it seems enough time has passed to heal Barao's nerves a little bit.


PuertoRican   United States. Jul 19 2015 23:28. Posts 13024

Rekrul is a newb 

Floofy   Canada. Jul 20 2015 04:05. Posts 8708


  On July 19 2015 21:57 Minsk wrote:
I think Barao should be favored in this odds-wise, I don't think one win against a sluggish Barao with a very significant punch should make Dillashaw a favorite here and it seems enough time has passed to heal Barao's nerves a little bit.



I'm not sure he should be favored, but +180 seems like great odds imo

james9994: make note dont play against floofy, ;( 

PuertoRican   United States. Jul 20 2015 09:04. Posts 13024

Taken from Sherdog forums:

With 5 days left to make weight, Barão is 149lbs and looking super skinny

"Barão said that he tried to lower his walkaround weight from 77kg (170lbs) to 74kgs (164lbs) with the help of a different nutricionist and he has been trying to lose as much weight as possible beforehand in order to not have further problems making the BW limit.

Now my question is... how the F do you lose another 15lbs from this body???"

Rekrul is a newb 

gebbstet   Sweden. Jul 20 2015 10:54. Posts 391

Really nice matchups on this card, alot of fights with pretty even odds and the biggest favourite is only -250.




traxamillion   United States. Jul 20 2015 20:22. Posts 10468

ok wtf so barao walks at 170 and fights at 135?

So if I walk at 150-155 I would for sure be 125 lb or less if i had to fight in a cage


traxamillion   United States. Jul 20 2015 20:24. Posts 10468

anyways I imagine he cuts all the water before getting on the scale and then at fight time he will be back around the size in that pic, maybe 2-3 lbs. less.

Renan looks good. I am on that Same parlay as Soberstone except I made a backup one with Tate winning. Think I am going to hedge with a straight bet on barao


traxamillion   United States. Jul 20 2015 20:26. Posts 10468

although I watched renan's last fight vs mitch; he was so nervous and scared of losing it seemed. In the fight he was getting tagged when mitch threw, he is just flat footed and not nearly as agile. Dillashaw gonna be hitting him all night just depends if renan can actually hit him back a few times this next fight,


PuertoRican   United States. Jul 20 2015 20:30. Posts 13024

Barao steps into the cage weighing about/at least 160. His coaches said so in the past.

Pretty crazy when you think about it.

Rekrul is a newb 

soberstone   United States. Jul 20 2015 21:11. Posts 2662


  On July 20 2015 19:22 traxamillion wrote:
ok wtf so barao walks at 170 and fights at 135?

So if I walk at 150-155 I would for sure be 125 lb or less if i had to fight in a cage



Barao is pretty much killing himself to make weight and had an entire UFC card cancelled because he 'hit his head passing out' the day before the last Dillashaw v Barao rematch. If you buy that I've got some real estate to sell you. The guy probably just passed out from being nearly dead. Nova Unio - the camp that he, Aldo, and a lot of other top Brazilians train at - is notorious for not knowing shit about safe training and weight cutting.

He has subsequently made weight and beat a solid top 10-15 guy - Mitch Gagnon - in unimpressive fashion, but it's ridiculous that he's still trying to hold a belt at 35. I wouldn't hedge that bet at all unless he somehow walked into the weigh-ins and looked energized and not emaciated. Dillashaw is also just a terrible stylistic match-up for him because his best asset is his top game (can't out-wrestle Dillashaw) and his power/speed in the pocket (Dillashaw won't trade with him unless he already has him hurt).

I think it will likely be a closer fight than the last time with Dillashaw taking over mid-way through the fight, but I could also see TJ dispatching of him easily. Renan is certainly dangerous and COULD finish TJ if he connects clean early, but I find it almost impossible to see Renan winning the fight on points.


soberstone   United States. Jul 20 2015 21:13. Posts 2662


  On July 20 2015 19:26 traxamillion wrote:
although I watched renan's last fight vs mitch; he was so nervous and scared of losing it seemed. In the fight he was getting tagged when mitch threw, he is just flat footed and not nearly as agile. Dillashaw gonna be hitting him all night just depends if renan can actually hit him back a few times this next fight,



This is pretty much spot-on IMO, I just don't see the flat-footed counter striking of Barao working often against Dillashaw's movement and variety.


Minsk   United States. Jul 20 2015 21:29. Posts 1558


  On July 20 2015 20:11 soberstone wrote:
Show nested quote +



Barao is pretty much killing himself to make weight and had an entire UFC card cancelled because he 'hit his head passing out' the day before the last Dillashaw v Barao rematch. If you buy that I've got some real estate to sell you. The guy probably just passed out from being nearly dead. Nova Unio - the camp that he, Aldo, and a lot of other top Brazilians train at - is notorious for not knowing shit about safe training and weight cutting.

He has subsequently made weight and beat a solid top 10-15 guy - Mitch Gagnon - in unimpressive fashion, but it's ridiculous that he's still trying to hold a belt at 35. I wouldn't hedge that bet at all unless he somehow walked into the weigh-ins and looked energized and not emaciated. Dillashaw is also just a terrible stylistic match-up for him because his best asset is his top game (can't out-wrestle Dillashaw) and his power/speed in the pocket (Dillashaw won't trade with him unless he already has him hurt).

I think it will likely be a closer fight than the last time with Dillashaw taking over mid-way through the fight, but I could also see TJ dispatching of him easily. Renan is certainly dangerous and COULD finish TJ if he connects clean early, but I find it almost impossible to see Renan winning the fight on points.


I don't know, Dillashaw had a cakewalk last time. Renan is a proven champion with years of experience and very few leaks. All it takes is one slip up by Dillashaw, who doesn't have that extensive experience, and Barao is very good at catching people that make a mistake. Thats really what its about to me. Thats really why Barao should be favored in my opinion.


Floofy   Canada. Jul 20 2015 23:07. Posts 8708


  On July 20 2015 09:54 gebbstet wrote:
Really nice matchups on this card, alot of fights with pretty even odds and the biggest favourite is only -250.






This is great for betting =)

james9994: make note dont play against floofy, ;( 

soberstone   United States. Jul 21 2015 01:21. Posts 2662

Added two more bets. I think Eye by decision is an incredibly good bet at +250, I know a lot of people don't see it that way. Tate is a far bigger name and opened as a favorite and the odds are about where they opened. I think the late sharp money comes in on Eye after people wait for casuals to bet Tate.

I think Jessica Eye will be at a major advantage boxing, land the cleaner shots, and stuff most takedowns. If Miesha lands an early TD and can gain a dominant position I'd feel terrible about the bet, and that's a real possibility, but I think Eye will be ready to sprawl, brawl. and circle off the cage effectively. I had Eye over Davis (She got jobbed by that decision IMO but it was a good lesson for her either way) and she beat Kaufman (who beat Tate, mma math doesn't work but just saying) only to have that deemed a NC due to weed. Then she blew up Leslie Smith's ear. It's not the victories themselves, but the way her boxing, sense of distance, technique, and lateral movement is just clearly better than Miesha's to me. I think her superior lateral movement in particular will play nicely vs Miesha's sort of all or nothing entries into takedowns, striking herself into the clinch, etc. Miesha closes distance very fast but recklessly, and Eye can play matador very nicely.

She's also shown more improvements each fight than Meisha has on a per fight basis. Let's be honest, Sarah McMann blew that fucking fight against Meisha - and I had money on Meisha in that one. Props to Meisha for showing insane heart, I won't question that - if a fight comes down to heart Meisha is a good bet. Essentially, Meisha is a better all-around fighter but I think the matchup is not a good one for her and if Eye wins, it'll be a decision 9/10 times so +250 is juicy as hell to me.

Lauzon has moved a bit but I'm still liking the line, Gomi has been done forever and Lauzon has actually looked really good since his loss to Michael Johnson.

Villante could be a bad bet, I set the line I expected at -350 before the odds came out so I'm just going with it, but I do need to go back and watch some Lawler tape and see if hedges are necessary there. Villante is just a big tough guy with an iron chin, good wrestling, but questionable cardio - I think I'll be keeping a close eye on this weigh-in to see how he looks.

Miller v Castillo should go the distance, I expect a heavy dose of wrestling for Castillo and a frustrated Jim Miller at the end of 3 rounds. If Ferguson couldn't sub Castillo, I don't see Miller doing it - as crafty as he is. I think it has to do with Castillo basically training with guys that have insane guillotines all day at Alpha Male. I could maybe see some kind of Leglock from Miller, I guarantee he rolls for a few, but it's not a high-percentage enough move for me to worry about. Don't see either guy KOing each other - Castillo is chinny but Miller hasn't KO'd anyone since Mr. Chinny - Kamal Shalarous in 2011. And Castillo has 1 punch KO power but he rarely lands on target and Miller is durable and crafty enough to survive a barrage.

318802212-1 7/20/15 8:06pm $20.00 $92.42 Pending 2 Team Parlay
Pending 7/25/15 9:00pm Props Fighting 1107 Eye wins by 3 round decision +250* vs Not Eye by 3 round decision
Pending 7/25/15 7:00pm Props Fighting 1503 Castillo / Miller goes 3 round distance -165* vs Fight won't go 3 round distance

318802082-1 7/20/15 8:04pm $20.00 $121.56 Pending 3 Team Parlay
Pending 7/25/15 8:00pm UFC Fighting 1302 Joe Lauzon -250* vs Takanori Gomi
Pending 7/25/15 7:30pm UFC Fighting 1402 Gian Villante -225* vs Tom Lawlor
Pending 7/25/15 9:00pm Props Fighting 1107 Eye wins by 3 round decision +250* vs Not Eye by 3 round decision

 Last edit: 21/07/2015 01:52

 
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