https://www.liquidpoker.net/


LP international Poland    Contact            Users: 190 Active, 2 Logged in - Time: 03:44

UFC FN 71: Mir vs. Duffee

New to LiquidPoker? Register here for free!
Forum Index > Sports and Betting
 1 
  2 
  3 
  4 
  > 
  Last 
  All 
PuertoRican   United States. Jul 13 2015 06:44. Posts 13023

Date: Wednesday, July 15th
Preliminary Card (UFC Fight Pass): 23:59 LP.net / 4pm PST / 7pm EST
Preliminary Card (Fox Sports 1): 1:00 LP.net / 5pm PST / 8pm EST
Main Card (Fox Sports 1): 3:00 LP.net / 7pm PST / 10pm EST
Live Streams: http://firstrowus1.eu/




Main Card (Fox Sports 1)

Frank Mir (17-9) vs. Todd Duffee (9-2) (Heavyweight)
Josh Thomson (20-7) vs. Tony Ferguson (18-3) (Lightweight)
Holly Holm (8-0) vs. Marion Reneau (6-1) (Women's Bantamweight)
Scott Jorgensen (15-10) vs. Manvel Gamburyan (14-8) (Bantamweight)
Kevin Lee (10-1) vs. James Moontasri (8-2) (Lightweight)
Alan Jouban (11-3) vs. Matt Dwyer (8-2) (Welterweight)

Preliminary Card (Fox Sports 1)

Sam Sicilia (14-5) vs. Yaotzin Meza (21-9) (Featherweight)
Jessica Andrade (12-4) vs. Sarah Moras (4-1) (Women's Bantamweight)
Rani Yahya (20-8) vs. Masanori Kanehara (25-11-5) (Bantamweight)
Igor Araujo (25-7) vs. Sean Strickland (15-1) (Welterweight)

Preliminary Card (UFC Fight Pass)

Kevin Casey (8-3) vs. Ildemar Alcantara (21-7) (Middleweight)
Andrew Craig (9-3) vs. Lyman Good (18-3) (Welterweight)

Other

• Bobby Green was expected to face Al Iaquinta at the event. However, Green pulled out of the fight on June 17 due to an ACL tear and was replaced by former WEC and Strikeforce Lightweight champion Gilbert Melendez. On July 6, it was announced that Melendez tested positive for testosterone metabolites of an exogenous origin at UFC 188. He denied using anything, but stated that he is "responsible for the products he uses and their implications." Melendez was suspended one year, effective from the date of his last bout. As a result, he was pulled from the fight against Iaquinta, who in turn, was also removed from the card.
• A featherweight bout between Rani Yahya and Masanori Kanehara initially slated for UFC Fight Night 70, was shifted to this event, as several participants on that card were unable to secure travel visas in time for that event restricting their travel to the United States.
• Edgar Garcia was expected to face Andrew Craig at the event. However, Garcia was forced from the bout with injury and replaced by promotional newcomer Lyman Good.
• Doo Ho Choi was expected to face Sam Sicilia at the event. However, Choi pulled out of the fight in late June due to broken ribs in training and was replaced by Yaotzin Meza.

Facebook Twitter
Rekrul is a newbLast edit: 16/07/2015 03:45

PuertoRican   United States. Jul 13 2015 06:51. Posts 13023

First impression of the match-ups:

• Duffee > Mir
• Ferguson > Thomson
• Reneau > Holm
• Gamburyan > Jorgensen
• Lee > Moontasri
• Jouban > Dwyer
• Sicilia > Meza
• Andrade > Moras
• Yahya > Kanehara
• Strickland > Araujo
• Casey > Alcantara
• Good > Craig

Rekrul is a newb 

alejandicto   . Jul 13 2015 20:16. Posts 865

I am betting on Duffee by KO and maybe Thompson for that odds (+165)


PuertoRican   United States. Jul 14 2015 23:35. Posts 13023

Rekrul is a newb 

Minsk   United States. Jul 15 2015 00:13. Posts 1558

Sick of them fighting. They should make peace.

 Last edit: 15/07/2015 00:13

Stim_Abuser   United States. Jul 15 2015 00:21. Posts 7499

How is thompson a dog to Furgeson? He could easily be on a 5 fight win streak against Noons, Gil, Nate, Bendo, and Green. His losses were all close and think he absolutely should of got the decisions against Bendo at the very least.

I haven't seen Tonys last couple fights though so I dunno.

Hey Im slinging mad volume and fat stackin benjies I dont got time for spellin n shit - skinny peteLast edit: 15/07/2015 00:30

Floofy   Canada. Jul 15 2015 01:14. Posts 8708


  On July 14 2015 23:21 Stim_Abuser wrote:
How is thompson a dog to Furgeson? He could easily be on a 5 fight win streak against Noons, Gil, Nate, Bendo, and Green. His losses were all close and think he absolutely should of got the decisions against Bendo at the very least.

I haven't seen Tonys last couple fights though so I dunno.



Ferguson will have 5 inch reach advantage, is 5 years younger, Thomson hasn't fought for a year and is getting old at 36.
And ferguson has been a monster recently.

That being said, your argument is valid, and +175 is pretty good odds.

james9994: make note dont play against floofy, ;(Last edit: 15/07/2015 01:15

PuertoRican   United States. Jul 15 2015 01:15. Posts 13023

Todd Duffee (241) vs. Frank Mir (262)
Tony Ferguson (156) vs. Josh Thomson (155.5)
Holly Holm (135) vs. Marion Reneau (134.5)
Manny Gamburyan (135) vs. Scott Jorgensen (135)
Kevin Lee (156) vs. James Moontasri (155)
Matt Dwyer (169) vs. Alan Jouban (170.5)
Yaotzin Meza (145.5) vs. Sam Sicilia (146)
Jessica Andrade (134.5) vs. Sarah Moras (135.5)
Masanori Kanehara (136) vs. Rani Yahya (135.5)
Igor Araujo (171) vs. Sean Strickland (171)
Ildemar Alcantara (185.5) vs. Kevin Casey (185.5)
Andrew Craig (170.5) vs. Lyman Good (170)


  On July 14 2015 23:21 Stim_Abuser wrote:
How is thompson a dog to Furgeson? He could easily be on a 5 fight win streak against Noons, Gil, Nate, Bendo, and Green. His losses were all close and think he absolutely should of got the decisions against Bendo at the very least.

I haven't seen Tonys last couple fights though so I dunno.



;/

Rekrul is a newb 

soberstone   United States. Jul 15 2015 01:20. Posts 2662

Running hot and up 50 units on the year so I'm gonna be a little belligerent and try and hit big on Sicilia, dropping like $290 in bets on him which isn't even close to proper bankrolling but I don't give a shit, he's in all my parlays and have a prop on him. As average as I consider Sicilia to be, I think Meza is just awful. Probably a bit spewy on my end since I haven't like re-watched fights or anything and am just going off memory, nothing technical.

As far as the real main event, Ferguson vs Thompson, I think Ferguson has far more paths to victory in terms of finishing the fight and is just at a way better point in his career arch, so I put him in some parlays but I realize Thompson is being disrespected with the moneyline itself and could craft his way to a decision so I hedged it with that prop - I don't see him finishing Ferguson.

Already have Duffee in a prop still alive from over the weekend but don't feel that great about it at -190 because it's heavyweight so I didn't put anything else down on him. He'll probably knock out Mir in the first 3 minutes of the fight.

I bet on Holm because while I do think Renaeu is really good, I think Holm looked scared of the moment and tentative in her debut even though she won, it was really underwhelming, and I think the perception of how good she is is probably pretty skewed. She should be so far superior athletically that unless she is completely gun-shy again, she should be able to fight at her pace on the outside and outstrike Renaeu in a kickboxing match, doubt she finishes a tough a girl as Renaeu though.

Lee vs Moontasri is a good fight, I think Lee should outwrestle and cardio Moontasri to a decision but he good get caught with something big as Moontasri throws all kinds of heat, so I hedged with the KO prop.

My bets:

Sicilia wins In The Distance - $40.00 @+140 To win $56
Thompson via Decision - $80.00 @ +275 To win $220
Holm via Decision - $30.00 @ +155 To Win $46.5
Moontasri via TKO/KO - $10.00 @ +840 To Win $84
Jorgenson / Gamburyan Goes Distance - $26.25 @ -175 To Win $15
Ferguson + Sicilia Parlay - $100.00 @ +140 To Win $139.85
Ferguson + Sicilia + Holm Parlay - $40.00 @ +255 to Win $103.9
Holm + Lee + Sicilia + Andrade Parlay - $50.00 @ +326 to Win 163.05


PuertoRican   United States. Jul 15 2015 02:47. Posts 13023

From Dana White's Instagram:

Rekrul is a newb 

soberstone   United States. Jul 15 2015 04:41. Posts 2662

Ferguson looked bad to me and I think he's weighed below 156 before, while Thompson looked ridiculous. I'm gonna hedge that bet even harder I think.

Also thinking about betting Reneau by sub and hedging some of that action.

Just put down a parlay with Jessica Andrade (-335) > Sarah Moreas + Leon Edwards (-235) > Pawal Palak. Those fights should all be absolute locks and the Edwards line is gonna absolutely move. I've been dead on about line movement on future cards if nothing else and you can bash me if Edwards doesn't end up at -270+ by fight time as long as he looks normal at weigh ins. He should absolutely destroy Palak.

Decided to bet the under 2.5 rds +150 for $100 to win $150 in the Fergusson v Thompson fight to semi-hedge the Thompson by Decision and Fergusson SU bets. I really think something is up with Ferguson and what I've noticed with tough and offensive fighters is that when they come in under 100 percent they just go for it early and either pay or get it done and +150 is pretty good odds given that scenario with a guy as dangerous as Ferguson and a guy as crafty as Thompson is sort of in the do or die portion of his career.

 Last edit: 15/07/2015 05:25

soberstone   United States. Jul 15 2015 04:48. Posts 2662


  On July 15 2015 01:47 PuertoRican wrote:
From Dana White's Instagram:



lol wow.


PuertoRican   United States. Jul 15 2015 05:24. Posts 13023

I don't have any bets yet, but out of the current lines, I'm interested in betting:

Reneau +180
Dwyer KO/TKO +600
Kanehara -110
Casey -105

I'll place my bets sometime tomorrow. I'm keeping everything small for this event since we have 4 events this week; 2 UFC, 1 Bellator, 1 Titan FC. UFC and Titan are on Saturday at different times, and both are hosted on UFC Fight Pass.

Rekrul is a newb 

traxamillion   United States. Jul 15 2015 05:28. Posts 10468

Jouban - gamburyan - lee (Parlay)

Yahya

strickland - andrade (Parlay)

Good - Casey (Parlay)

Andrade - Sicilia - Lee - Holm (Parlay)

Thomson - Duffee (Parlay)

Andrade - Edwards (Parlay)


PuertoRican   United States. Jul 15 2015 05:33. Posts 13023


  On July 15 2015 04:28 traxamillion wrote:
Jouban - gamburyan - lee (Parlay)



Hedge this with Dwyer KO/TKO +650.

I love me some Jouban, but he gets tagged in his fights, and while Dwyer is relatively thin and tall for the weight class, he packs some power in his punches.

Rekrul is a newb 

soberstone   United States. Jul 15 2015 05:36. Posts 2662

Added Jouban by submission at +650.


Floofy   Canada. Jul 15 2015 05:40. Posts 8708


  On July 15 2015 00:20 soberstone wrote:
Running hot and up 50 units on the year so I'm gonna be a little belligerent and try and hit big on Sicilia, dropping like $290 in bets on him which isn't even close to proper bankrolling but I don't give a shit, he's in all my parlays and have a prop on him. As average as I consider Sicilia to be, I think Meza is just awful. Probably a bit spewy on my end since I haven't like re-watched fights or anything and am just going off memory, nothing technical.

As far as the real main event, Ferguson vs Thompson, I think Ferguson has far more paths to victory in terms of finishing the fight and is just at a way better point in his career arch, so I put him in some parlays but I realize Thompson is being disrespected with the moneyline itself and could craft his way to a decision so I hedged it with that prop - I don't see him finishing Ferguson.

Already have Duffee in a prop still alive from over the weekend but don't feel that great about it at -190 because it's heavyweight so I didn't put anything else down on him. He'll probably knock out Mir in the first 3 minutes of the fight.

I bet on Holm because while I do think Renaeu is really good, I think Holm looked scared of the moment and tentative in her debut even though she won, it was really underwhelming, and I think the perception of how good she is is probably pretty skewed. She should be so far superior athletically that unless she is completely gun-shy again, she should be able to fight at her pace on the outside and outstrike Renaeu in a kickboxing match, doubt she finishes a tough a girl as Renaeu though.

Lee vs Moontasri is a good fight, I think Lee should outwrestle and cardio Moontasri to a decision but he good get caught with something big as Moontasri throws all kinds of heat, so I hedged with the KO prop.

My bets:

Sicilia wins In The Distance - $40.00 @+140 To win $56
Thompson via Decision - $80.00 @ +275 To win $220
Holm via Decision - $30.00 @ +155 To Win $46.5
Moontasri via TKO/KO - $10.00 @ +840 To Win $84
Jorgenson / Gamburyan Goes Distance - $26.25 @ -175 To Win $15
Ferguson + Sicilia Parlay - $100.00 @ +140 To Win $139.85
Ferguson + Sicilia + Holm Parlay - $40.00 @ +255 to Win $103.9
Holm + Lee + Sicilia + Andrade Parlay - $50.00 @ +326 to Win 163.05



Hey man some comments on what you said:

agreed for ferguson, hes a monster
I bet on Mir because of the odds. Dufee looked really good, but he has fought much lower level of opposition. And its heavyweight.
Marion couldn't even stand with Andrade, i think Holm will destroy her on the feet. Imo, Marion's only path to victory is subs, which could happen, but not at +200 odds.
I also think Lee is a great bet, even tho odds arent great
I think i'm gonna go for Meza. 7 inch advantage and great odds. i liked him in his last fight

james9994: make note dont play against floofy, ;( 

traxamillion   United States. Jul 15 2015 17:11. Posts 10468


  On July 15 2015 04:33 PuertoRican wrote:
Show nested quote +



Hedge this with Dwyer KO/TKO +650.

I love me some Jouban, but he gets tagged in his fights, and while Dwyer is relatively thin and tall for the weight class, he packs some power in his punches.


right on will do. May have to make an account on a site other than Bovada in order to access the props. thanks


PuertoRican   United States. Jul 15 2015 23:33. Posts 13023

My bets pre-live betting:

+ Show Spoiler +

Rekrul is a newb 

soberstone   United States. Jul 16 2015 00:21. Posts 2662

McGregor opened at -180 vs Aldo. Some money has come in on Aldo to move it to -170.

Definitely a dog or pass situation at those odds unless McGregor looked great at weigh-ins and Aldo looked bad or something like that.

Andrew Craig is the most clear case of "I'm clearly off steroids now and it's obvious I was on them before" since Belfort. Then again, Belfort was still probably on something.

Edit: Man, props are frozen on Maker and I really want to take Thompson via sub at +1080

 Last edit: 16/07/2015 00:26

 
 1 
  2 
  3 
  4 
  > 
  Last 
  All 



Poker Streams

















Copyright © 2024. LiquidPoker.net All Rights Reserved
Contact Advertise Sitemap