TUF 21 Finale: Ellenberger vs. Thompson

Date: Sunday, July 12th
Preliminary Card (UFC Fight Pass): 23:30 LP.net / 3:30pm PST / 6:30pm EST
Preliminary Card (Fox Sports 1): 23:59 LP.net / 4pm PST / 7pm EST
Main Card (PPV): 2:00 LP.net / 6pm PST / 9pm EST
Live Streams: http://firstrowus1.eu/




Main Card (Fox Sports 1)

Jake Ellenberger (30-9) vs. Stephen Thompson (10-1) (Welterweight)
Kamaru Usman (5-1) vs. Hayder Hassan (6-1) (Welterweight)
Michael Graves (4-0) vs. Vicente Luque (7-4-1) (Welterweight)
Jorge Masvidal (28-9) vs. Cezar Ferreira (8-4) (Welterweight)
Angela Magana (11-7) vs. Michelle Waterson (12-4) (Women's Strawweight)
Maximo Blanco (11-6-1) vs. Mike De La Torre (13-4) (Featherweight)

Preliminary Card (Fox Sports 1)

Josh Samman (11-2) vs. Caio Magalhaes (9-1) (Middleweight)
Russell Doane (14-4) vs. Jerrod Sanders (14-3) (Bantamweight)
Dan Miller (14-7) vs. Trevor Smith (12-6) (Middleweight)
George Sullivan (16-4) vs. Dominic Waters (9-2) (Welterweight)

Preliminary Card (UFC Fight Pass)

Darrell Montague (13-4) vs. Willie Gates (11-5) (Flyweight)

Other

• A lightweight bout between former WEC & UFC Lightweight champion Benson Henderson and Michael Johnson was initially linked as the event headliner. However on May 15, a welterweight bout between Jake Ellenberger and Stephen Thompson was announced as the main event. Although never officially announced by the UFC, the bout between Henderson and Johnson will not take place at this event.
• The welterweight finals of The Ultimate Fighter: American Top Team vs. Blackzilians are expected to take place at the event.
• Marcio Alexandre Jr. was scheduled to face George Sullivan at the event. However, Alexandre pulled out of the fight during the week leading up to the event citing a rib injury and was replaced by promotional newcomer Dominic Waters.

First impression of the match-ups:

• Thompson > Ellenberger
• Usman vs. Hassan (dunno)
• Graves vs. Luque (dunno)
• Masvidal > Ferreira
• Waterson > Magana
• Blanco > Torre
• Magalhaes > Samman
• Doane > Sanders
• Miller > Smith
• Sullivan > Waters
• Gates > Montague

lol, so much hype for the Mcgregor Aldo-Mendes event that I didnt notice this was the next day. Four principal fights are pretty decent IMO.

Co-main event will be a pretty nice fight, they're really nicely matched up and are fighting for a Harley so :D

Jake Ellenberger (170.5) vs. Stephen Thompson (170.5)
Hayder Hassan (170.5) vs. Kamaru Usman (170.5) (TUF 21 welterweight tournament final)
Michael Graves (170.5) vs. Vicente Luque (171)
Cezar Ferreira (171) vs. Jorge Masvidal (172.5)*
Angela Magana (115.5) vs. Michelle Waterson (115)
Maximo Blanco (148.5)** vs. Mike De La Torre (145.5)
Caio Magalhaes (185) vs. Josh Samman (186)
Russell Doane (135.5) vs. Jerrod Sanders (136)
Dan Miller (184) vs. Trevor Smith (185.5)
George Sullivan (170.5) vs. Dom Waters (171)
Willie Gates (125.5) vs. Darrell Montague (125.5)

* Masvidal was given one hour to hit 171 pounds.
** Blanco was given one hour to hit 146 pounds.

I got nasvidal and Thompson

Shoulda listened to you puretorican on Rory vs Robbie lol, but he was gonna win a constroversial decision

On July 12 2015 19:04 Zadan wrote: I got Masvidal and Thompson Shoulda listened to you PuertoRican on Rory vs Robbie lol, but he was gonna win a controversial decision.

Last night, Robbie's striking wasn't as good as it usually is, which was mostly due to the fact that he game planned around defending Rory's take down attempts, which he easily did when Rory attempted 2-3 take downs. Since Robbie was so focused on avoiding the take downs, he barely threw any kicks.

Hendricks' take downs are different from Rory's, so Robbie had to train differently, I guess.

Also, even if Robbie didn't get the knockout, his KO/TKO/DQ line was at +500 when I bet it, then got up to +600, iirc. When you see odds like that for a fighter who has finished 19 of 25 of his wins via KO/TKO, there's plenty of value on betting the line, especially when that guy is fighting in a 5-round fight and is the defending champion. He has 25 minutes to fight, and he has to do everything he can to keep his belt, because most champions say that the hardest part is not winning the title, it's defending it, especially the first title defense.

Very much think Thompson should be heavier favored.

If he wins he completes a parlay from last night to win 3 units (60.80) - WON

Parlayed Thompson + Kumaru @ 100 to win 116.28 - WON

Parlayed Thompson + Masvidal @ 100 to win 111.80 - WON

Parlayed Thompson + Kumaru + Masvidal @ 50 to win 105.16 - WON

Luque via Decision @ +185 - 30 ton win $55.50 - LOST

Thompson + Ferrera Decision @ 40 to win 318.70 - LOST

Masvidal by 3rd rd finish @ +975 - 20 to win 190 - LOST

Waterson by decision @ +111 - 20 to win 22.00 - LOST

Waterson by Sub @ +170 - 20 to win 34 - WON

Magana by Sub @+1505 - 5 to win 75.25 - LOST

Blanco ITD @ +352 - 20 to win 74.40 - WON

Samman via decision @ +434 - 20 to win 86.80 - LOST

Total - +$387.44

Weekend Total - +548

YTD - +1100 / +55 Units.

My bets pre-live betting

+ Show Spoiler +

Whoop Ass Willie Gates with the quick TKO!

xD

On July 12 2015 22:46 PuertoRican wrote: Whoop Ass Willie Gates with the quick TKO! xD

Great bet. He looked really good and powerful for a flyweight. I like his ceiling.

Sullivan looked like shit. Waters looked like a guy on 1-week notice, which he was.

And lol at 30-25 scorecard.

Sullivan the boss. Too bad he gassed. Hopefully he was just nervous cuz he was coming off of a TKO loss.

What's going on with the Maximo Blanco line. He's shifted to the dog pretty hard today, 80 point shift in last 24 hours.

Just through 30 on him to win ITD at +352. If he's hurt or something or I missed something at weigh-ins, hopefully hell just go apeshit and go for it.

On July 13 2015 01:02 soberstone wrote: What's going on with the Maximo Blanco line. He's shifted to the dog pretty hard today.

"Maximo Blanco missed weight on his first attempt at the weigh-ins, coming in at 148.5 lbs. After having made no attempts to cut further, he was fined 20 percent of his fight purse, which went to Mike De La Torre."

On July 13 2015 01:06 PuertoRican wrote: Show nested quote + On July 13 2015 01:02 soberstone wrote: What's going on with the Maximo Blanco line. He's shifted to the dog pretty hard today. "Maximo Blanco missed weight on his first attempt at the weigh-ins, coming in at 148.5 lbs. After having made no attempts to cut further, he was fined 20 percent of his fight purse, which went to Mike De La Torre."

Good, makes me like my bet more. No reason to shift the line that hard if he didn't even keep trying to cut.

Shoot it. Bad stoppage but I think he was about to get pasted anyway.

Magana.

Just watched weighins and saw Masvidal didnt make weight which makes me think he didnt even train hard for this fight.

I'm hedging with Cezar by decision at +525 parlayed with Thompson for 40 to win 318

I think there is very little chance he ever could finish a guy as good and seasoned as Jorge yet the odds on that are better than Ferreria winning a decision, doesn't jive with my reality. If Jorge doesn't perform smart and is out of shape, he could theoretically drop a decision.

Shoot it on the Waterson sub prop but fuck, sucks Magana didn't finish that deep armbar and cash that sub Rican, I had that prop too. Was very close.