UFC FN 69: Jedrzejczyk vs. Penne

Date: Saturday, June 20th
Preliminary Card (UFC Fight Pass): 17:00 LP.net / 9am PST / 12pm EST
Main Card (UFC Fight Pass): 20:00 LP.net / 12pm PST / 3pm EST
Live Streams: http://www.vipbox.tv (All MMA events are listed under the UFC button. Press the UFC button and you'll see the event in the list.)




Main Card (UFC Fight Pass)

Joanna Jedrzejczyk (9-0) vs. Jessica Penne (12-2) (Women's Strawweight Championship)
Dennis Siver (22-10) vs. Tatsuya Kawajiri (33-8-2) (Featherweight)
Peter Sobotta (14-4-1) vs. Steve Kennedy (22-6) (Welterweight)
Nick Hein (11-2) vs. Lukasz Sajewski (13-0) (Lightweight)

Preliminary Card (UFC Fight Pass)

Makwan Amirkhani (11-2) vs. Masio Fullen (10-4) (Featherweight)
Mairbek Taisumov (23-5) vs. Alan Patrick (12-0) (Lightweight)
Alan Omer (18-4) vs. Arnold Allen (9-1) (Featherweight)
Niklas Backstrom (8-1) vs. Noad Lahat (8-1) (Featherweight)
Scott Askham (12-1) vs. Antonio dos Santos (6-2) (Middleweight)
Piotr Hallmann (15-3) vs. Magomed Mustafaev (11-1) (Lightweight)
Taylor Lapilus (9-1) vs. Ulka Sasaki (18-2-2) (Bantamweight)

Other

- The event was expected to be headlined by a light heavyweight bout between former title challengers Alexander Gustafsson and Glover Teixeira. However, Gustafsson pulled out of the bout on May 1 due to an injury. In turn, Teixeira was removed from the card entirely and was rescheduled against a different opponent at a future event. Subsequently, a UFC Women's Strawweight Championship bout between current champion Joanna Jedrzejczyk and former Invicta FC Atomweight champion Jessica Penne will now headline the event.
- Makwan Amirkhani was expected to face Diego Rivas at the event. However, shortly after the bout was announced, Rivas was pulled from the fight due to undisclosed reasons. Amirkhani is expected to remain on the card against Masio Fullen.
- A welterweight bout between Sergio Moraes and Peter Sobotta was originally booked for UFC Fight Night: Gonzaga vs. Cro Cop 2. However, the bout was cancelled due to Sobotta being injured. Moraes remained on the card against a different opponent. The fight was later rescheduled for this event. On June 9, the fight was scrapped once again as Moraes pulled out for undisclosed reasons. He was replaced by promotional newcomer Steve Kennedy.
- A light heavyweight bout between Nikita Krylov and Marcos Rogerio de Lima was briefly linked to this event. However the paring is now expected to take place a week later at The Ultimate Fighter Brazil 4 Finale.
- Derek Brunson was expected to face Krzysztof Jotko at the event. However, Brunson pulled out of the fight on June 9 citing a rib injury and was briefly replaced by Uriah Hall. Three days after the booking, Hall was removed due to due to an alleged visa issue. In turn, Jotko was removed from the card entirely.
- Mike Wilkinson was expected to face Alan Omer at the event. However, Wilkinson suffered a shoulder injury and was removed from the card. Wilkinson was replaced by promotional newcomer Arnold Allen on five days notice.

First impression of the match-ups:

• JJ > Penne
• Siver > Kawajiri
• Sobotta > Kennedy
• Hein > Sajewski
• Amirkhani > Fullen
• Taisumov > Patrick
• Omer > Allen
• Backstrom > Lahat
• Askham vs. Santos (dunno)
• Hallmann vs. Mustafaev (dunno)
• Lapilus > Sasaki (Lapilus by decision, Sasaki by submission. If Lapilus is the underdog, I like his money line mixed with Sasaki's submission prop.)

JJ by decision at +160 looks good to me to start. She's a savage but Penne has a lot more to offer than Esperza did that last SW titlefight, and can easily see Penne surviving. Maybe hedge it with a small Penne sub bet if I can get it at +1000 which is what it opened at on one site, which I think is definitely a value. JJ KO would suck for those bets and that's highly possible but I think those are the value lines I see.

Kawajiri v Siver is a pretty clear dog or pass, I don't see why you'd be laying -180 on Siver against a quality opponent at this point. I like the over 2.5 rds at -205.

Interested to see the Backstrom v Lahat line. I think Backstrom ITD is gonna be happening quite frequently in this fight, and I'd probably take the under as well if the odds were good considering Backstrom's recent chin history

Also interested to see the Taisumov v Patrick line. I think that fight goes the distance a vast majority of the time and white I favor Taisumov over Patrick like PuertoRican, I think the line should be close.

Amirkhani is a fun fighter, so that should be decent.

Other than that, don't know yet and don't give a shit about until I do, if I decide to research.

The undercard looks like a world cup of football. Anyway I'm passing this one. Nothing to see here. Maybe I'll watch the Main Event later.

-edit- oh just on 2nd reading i saw that kawajiri is in the main card. i'll probably watch his fight against siver later.

- Kawajiri is coming off of a 14 month layoff where he almost had to retire due to a detached retina. It was in the same eye that he had issues with before.

- Arnold Allen is taking this fight on 5-days notice.

- Noad Lahat's last fight was 11 months ago, and it was supposed to be his last fight for awhile because he left team AKA in San Jose, California, and went back to Israel to fight in the war that's currently going on over there. As of December 2014, Lahat was back at AKA. After looking at his Instagram page, he has been at AKA for awhile, which means he wasn't in Israel for that long.

- I'm eying u2.5 rounds for the JJ/Penne fight. Penne has better striking than Esparza, but her striking isn't good. Penne is a BJJ fighter, and her take downs and striking suck, and she's not a short fighter, so I expect JJ to easily brush off any take down attempts from Penne and counter her as they break apart. Penne is a tough chick, so she might be able to last o2.5 rounds. That being said, I expect Penne to eat A LOT of punches to the face.

- Nick Hein quit his job as a police sergeant to train full-time for 2 months at Tiger Muay Thai with several other UFC fighters. His cardio is supposedly improved.

- Information on Magomed Mustafaev: http://www.bloodyelbow.com/2014/10/28...port-2-welterweight-magomed-mustafaev

That might be the worst card ever. Siver - Kawajiri : co - main, LOL.

Penne's striking is very bad and on top of that she does not possess good takedowns. JJ will most likely embarrass and finish her.

"UFC Fight Pass adds Titan FC, first live event set for July 18 with Pat Healy vs. Mike Ricci"

Pat Healy vs. Mike Ricci
Kurt Holobaugh vs. Andre Harrison
Brett Johns vs. Anthony Gutierrez
Cody Bollinger vs. Freddy Assuncao


"UFC Fight Pass has added Titan FC and will soon feature the promotion’s past library, as well as upcoming live events.

Fight Pass now offers live events from UFC, Invicta, Shooto Brazil and now Titan FC."

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I was gonna order a 1-month Fight Pass ticket for the UFC card this weekend anyway, so this is good timing.

Just watched Penne's last fight with Markos and will definitely not be taking JJ by decision at +160 like I initially thought, Penne's striking looks worse than I remembered.... now I'm leaning towards the JJ by KO at even money if I can get it.

Penne's style of grappling is completely different than Gaudelhia and Lima's, but I still think the MMA math works here.... if they had trouble getting JJ down, Penne won't be able to.

Showcase fight for JJ, Penne should try to clinch and pull guard while they are both dry, but JJ seems very intelligent, focused, and determined, and I'm quite sure she'll be ready for those shenanigans.

Considering the level of competition at straw weight I feel like JJ will be something close to what Ronda is at the higher weight class, not as spectacular though.
Terrible card ...

What a shitty card, I am not even betting here : (

On June 17 2015 15:34 alejandicto wrote: What a shitty card, I am not even betting here : (

Random cards like these usually have some good fights. Also, a lot of underdogs usually win on these cards.

I have 2 units on Lapilus so far @ +215.

On June 17 2015 17:31 PuertoRican wrote: Show nested quote + On June 17 2015 15:34 alejandicto wrote: What a shitty card, I am not even betting here : ( Random cards like these usually have some good fights. Also, a lot of underdogs usually win on these cards. I have 2 units on Lapilus so far @ +215.

Well you are right underdogs are usually Ev+ on this cards with unknown fighters, I think I am gonna make a research and maybe bet a couple of underdogs, if I lose at least it will be a more exciting card for me.

On June 17 2015 17:31 PuertoRican wrote: Show nested quote + On June 17 2015 15:34 alejandicto wrote: What a shitty card, I am not even betting here : ( Random cards like these usually have some good fights. Also, a lot of underdogs usually win on these cards. I have 2 units on Lapilus so far @ +215.

2 Units on a decent dog. You must have a pretty good read eh?

I have no clue about either of these guys.... just heard that Sasaki is a nifty submission specialist.

In other news, if I can get Kimbo by KO at anywhere close to even money in the awesome Bellator card, which is (no offense Rican, appreciate what you do) probably what this thread should actually be titled, I will be throwing down an enormous bet.

On June 17 2015 19:39 soberstone wrote: Show nested quote + On June 17 2015 17:31 PuertoRican wrote:   On June 17 2015 15:34 alejandicto wrote: What a shitty card, I am not even betting here : ( Random cards like these usually have some good fights. Also, a lot of underdogs usually win on these cards. I have 2 units on Lapilus so far @ +215. 2 Units on a decent dog. You must have a pretty good read eh? I have no clue about either of these guys.... just heard that Sasaki is a nifty submission specialist. In other news, if I can get Kimbo by KO at anywhere close to even money in the awesome Bellator card, which is (no offense Rican, appreciate what you do) probably what this thread should actually be titled, I will be throwing down an enormous bet.

If the Shamrock vs. Kimbo card is so awesome, why don't you make a thread about it?

how big of a underdog sajewski is vs hein?

On June 18 2015 06:52 MysticJoey wrote: how big of a underdog sajewski is vs hein?

https://www.bestfightodds.com/

On June 18 2015 06:52 PuertoRican wrote: Show nested quote + On June 17 2015 19:39 soberstone wrote:   On June 17 2015 17:31 PuertoRican wrote:   On June 17 2015 15:34 alejandicto wrote: What a shitty card, I am not even betting here : ( Random cards like these usually have some good fights. Also, a lot of underdogs usually win on these cards. I have 2 units on Lapilus so far @ +215. 2 Units on a decent dog. You must have a pretty good read eh? I have no clue about either of these guys.... just heard that Sasaki is a nifty submission specialist. In other news, if I can get Kimbo by KO at anywhere close to even money in the awesome Bellator card, which is (no offense Rican, appreciate what you do) probably what this thread should actually be titled, I will be throwing down an enormous bet. If the Shamrock vs. Kimbo card is so awesome, why don't you make a thread about it?

Chill bro, sarcasm.

I appreciate these threads you make, truly.

Yea these threads are tight jons just joking with you rican. I think he just likes some of those fight better. Shit Kimbo is fighting? glad i just found out about that

On June 18 2015 16:38 soberstone wrote: Show nested quote + On June 18 2015 06:52 PuertoRican wrote:   On June 17 2015 19:39 soberstone wrote:   On June 17 2015 17:31 PuertoRican wrote:   On June 17 2015 15:34 alejandicto wrote: What a shitty card, I am not even betting here : ( Random cards like these usually have some good fights. Also, a lot of underdogs usually win on these cards. I have 2 units on Lapilus so far @ +215. 2 Units on a decent dog. You must have a pretty good read eh? I have no clue about either of these guys.... just heard that Sasaki is a nifty submission specialist. In other news, if I can get Kimbo by KO at anywhere close to even money in the awesome Bellator card, which is (no offense Rican, appreciate what you do) probably what this thread should actually be titled, I will be throwing down an enormous bet. If the Shamrock vs. Kimbo card is so awesome, why don't you make a thread about it? Chill bro, sarcasm. I appreciate these threads you make, truly.

Make the Bellator thread...

On June 13 2015 13:22 alejandicto wrote: My final bets: 10 $ Cain by KO/TKO -147 10 $ Cain/Werdum u2.5 +100 10 $ Cain + Melendez -108 3 $ Yair Rodriguez +160 I decided not betting on Pendred only because the fight is on Mexico.

I won the Yair Rodriguez and the u2.5 bets, but I am confused because I thought that meant if it got to round 3 I lose. I think it depends of the site you bet? : S?