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UFC FN 67: Condit vs. Alves

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PuertoRican   United States. May 25 2015 05:39. Posts 13024

Date: Saturday, May 30th
Preliminary Card (UFC Fight Pass): 23:59 LP.net / 4pm PST / 7pm EST
Preliminary Card (Fox Sports 1): 1:00 LP.net / 5pm PST / 8pm EST
Main Card (PPV): 3:00 LP.net / 7pm PST / 10pm EST
Live Streams: http://www.vipbox.tv (All MMA events are listed under the UFC button. Press the UFC button and you'll see the event in the list.)




Main Card (Fox Sports 1)

Carlos Condit (29-8) vs. Thiago Alves (21-9) (Welterweight)
Nik Lentz (25-6-2) vs. Charles Oliveira (19-4) (Featherweight)
KJ Noons (13-7) vs. Alex Oliveira (10-2-1) (Welterweight)
Francimar Barroso (16-4) vs. Ryan Jimmo (19-4) (Light Heavyweight)
Norman Parke (20-3-1) vs. Francisco Trinaldo (16-4) (Lightweight)
Wendell Oliveira (24-8) vs. Darren Till (12-0) (Welterweight)

Preliminary Card (Fox Sports 1)

Rony Jason (14-5) vs. Damon Jackson (9-1) (Featherweight)
Jussier Formiga (17-3) vs. Wilson Reis (19-5) (Flyweight)
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos (14-4) vs. Nicolas Dalby (13-0) (Welterweight)
Lucas Martins (15-2) vs. Mirsad Bektic (9-0) (Featherweight)

Preliminary Card (UFC Fight Pass)

Juliana Lima (7-2) vs. Ericka Almeida (7-0) (Women's Strawweight)
Luiz Dutra (11-3-1) vs. Tom Breese (7-0) (Welterweight)

Other

- A welterweight bout between TJ Waldburger and Wendell Oliveira was originally booked for UFC Fight Night 61. However, the bout was cancelled on the day of the weigh-ins, after Waldburger passed out while cutting weight. The pairing had been rescheduled for this event, but it was scrapped yet again after Waldburger pulled out of the bout on May 19 due to undisclosed reasons. He was replaced by promotional newcomer Darren Till.
- Gilbert Burns was expected to face Norman Parke at this event. However, Burns was forced to withdraw from the event due to injury and was replaced by Francisco Trinaldo.
- Renato Moicano was expected to face Mirsad Bektic at the event. However, Moicano pulled out of the fight in late April due to a knee injury and was replaced by Lucas Martins.
- Jessica Penne was expected to face Juliana Lima at the event. However on May 1, Penne was removed from the card and placed into a UFC Women's Strawweight Championship fight against champion Joanna Jedrzejczyk on June 20, 2015 at UFC Fight Night 69. She was replaced by promotional newcomer Ericka Almeida.
- Yan Cabral was expected to face KJ Noons at the event. However on May 19, Cabral pulled out of the fight due to dengue fever. He was replaced by Alex Oliveira.

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Rekrul is a newb 

PuertoRican   United States. May 25 2015 05:42. Posts 13024

First impression of the match-ups:

• Condit > Alves
• Oliveira > Lentz
• Oliveira > Noons
• Jimmo > Barroso
• Parke > Trinaldo
• Oliveira vs. Till (dunno)
• Jason > Jackson
• Reis > Formiga
• Santos vs. Dalby (dunno)
• Bektic > Martins
• Lima > Almeida
• Dutra > Breese

Rekrul is a newb 

Raidern   Brasil. May 25 2015 15:07. Posts 4243

^
You picked a large number of foreigners. I'd just look at green-yellow flags and pick the winner. That or you already know that the foreigner is good enough to KO the BR hhueuhueh

im a regular at nl5Last edit: 25/05/2015 15:07

Floofy   Canada. May 25 2015 22:37. Posts 8708

To beat a brazilian in Brazil u almost have to KO him xD

james9994: make note dont play against floofy, ;( 

Floofy   Canada. May 26 2015 23:54. Posts 8708

I want to bet Alves for a few reasons:

Brazil: He's likely to be on peds, and could easily be gifted a decision. And the crowd will boost him.
I expect +240 odds which is good
Condit has ring rust and could still suffer from injury possibly

BUT, i have read on some sites and most pros stronlgy disagree with me, they think Condit is free money, so i'm not sure.... i might just pass that fight

james9994: make note dont play against floofy, ;( 

soberstone   United States. May 28 2015 01:02. Posts 2662

I know this is TLDR material guys, but w/e, I post a lot in these threads and if anyone values my opinion, great, if not, some good counter-points I would love to hear on the 4 fights I commented on

187 recap since I didn't post as I was watching the fights out in Norcal live with the homie traxamillion, I thought the card was fucking excellent entertainment, the best so far this year:

On the betting side however, I basically took a shot at hitting it big and being able to start betting bigger by going for massive parlays that I thought had value but would still obviously bust most of the time and throwing everything id racked up this year on bookmaker and got fucked by Uriah Hall (and to a lesser extent Travis Browne, woulda still won a ton if Hall held) - which in retrospect was a terrible bet since apparently his consistent ability to freeze-up overrides any massive edge he may have, so back to them lower variance bets I guess for now and see if I can run good for the next 6 weeks and take another shot at UFC 189 - Mcgregor v Aldo (staying at MGM :DDDDDDD)

The Browne Arlovski fight just turned into an awesome to watch bar fight once Arlovski rocked Browne and put him in instinct mode, it was apparent after about 15 seconds when Arlovski was just barely missing that Browne's head movement was worse than I realized and/or Arlovski's hands are quicker, likely both. The backfists Arlovski was landing off his missed cross in that fight were sick too, really crafty, much more effective for heavyweights with 4-oz gloves than coming back across with the wide hook because it gets to its target much quicker, doesn't leave you as exposed, and as we saw, can rock the other guy all the same. That's the sort of technique that wouldn't be advantageous at all at welterweight and below because all you are doing is wasting a movement with no potential of significant damage and still carries some risk, whereas in those weightclasses the ideal thing to do is obviously to simply re-balance and circle off/pivot off (depending on the angle) simultaneously (GSP only through straight punches like the jab or cross, but was always re-balancing and out of there before his opponent could react), but is perfect at heavyweight.

Anyway, initial thoughts - only really on 4 fights that I feel like I have a read on


Condit > Alves:
- Condit should be more likely to rack up points with superior volume, pace, accuracy, etc. so he should be the round-winner, especially 3,4, 5
- As a Condit fan, I do worry a little bit that he relies on his sick chin too much and one day that might catch up with him, but I don't think it's this fight
- Both are great strikers but Alves didn't look great against Mein before finding what I would deem a relatively fluky finish out of nowhere after getting picked apart on the feet in a surprisingly not competitive first round (Alves landed a kick to the body that was hard but didn't look like it had fight ending power, but it landed in the perfect spot in Mein's gut, was sort of a weird finish IMO).
- Both fighters are violent and should bring it so I'd be a little surprised if this didn't get finished at some point, prolly Condit via after hurting Alves in later rounds is most likely outcome
- Should be a great technical fight with flashes of awesome violence and toughness displayed by both dudes
- Will probably bet on Condit in some capacity, not sure how yet

Oliveira > Lentz:
- Oliveira is the more diverse and dangerous fighter, far better kickboxer at range, equal in the clinch, better cardio, and ofcourse far better subs from any position
- Not super confident about the pick though, they both cut too much weight so while I think Oliveira is the better all around fighter, if he has an especially bad cut and Lentz doesn't, that's a recipe for a Lentz grind-it-out type decision
- I expect them to both look bad at weigh-ins so one of them looks surprisingly spry and the other looks shitty, I'll want betting site fired up to beat the justifiable and inevitable line movement should suck a situation occur
- Odds seem correct as of now with 240 being the mean with Du-Bronx being the favorite, if there are no further developments I prolly won't touch the fight

Reis > Formiga:
- This fight should be way higher up on the card than it is in terms of actual importance relative to division - both guys would be 1 win away from a title shot, simply because DJ will have cleaned the division after Dodson II
- No one is getting KO'd - neither guy has a single knockout in 44 combined fights.
- Formiga is more technical on his feet but not as active or powerful
- Formiga will need to either win on the feet (possible but I don't favor him there) or be able to initiate a scramble off a Reis takedown and take the back (his biggest strength) in order to win rounds or find the submission
- I think Reis matches up really well against a guy who's strongest asset is being a wet-blanket style scrambler because he's a decorated grappler himself and is bigger, stronger, and more athletic
- If the fight is on the ground, it should be because should be able to get Formiga down and play top position conservatively and avoid hairy spots and win a really low-risk, intelligent, boring decision that resembles the Jiu-Jitsu points match
- Since I'm picking Reis, I obviously see value on him as the dog - will probably bet him by decision at +190

Bektic > Martins:
- Bektic's a blue chip prospect out of a top tier camps (ATT) already really well-rounded, technical at all the major disciplines
- Has already shown heart in his fight with Chas Skelly where he got blatantly illegally kneed in the face on the ground and clearly concussed (somehow Skelly wasn't DQ'ed and just lost a point, it was absurd, and Bektic still won) and the intangibles that someone like Uriah Hall is the polar opposite of, and is a blue-chip undefeated prospect to look out for because he's so good so young (24) and is very athletic.
- Patrick Wyman from Sherdog rated him the number 1 prospect to look out for in 2015, and Wyman has been hired by Rafael Cordero to gameplan for his top students - Fabricio Werdum and RDA.
- From what I've seen of Martins, his only above average trait is his power. Other than that, decent striking offense, poor striking defense, average wrestling, average Jitsu.
- Looks like a clear victory for Bektic, even if it goes to decision, it should be dominant enough performance to avoid the feared Brazillian judging
- I like Bektic ITD at +170 and will probably parlay him with Condit seperately

 Last edit: 28/05/2015 01:11

Floofy   Canada. May 28 2015 01:20. Posts 8708


  On May 28 2015 00:02 soberstone wrote:

Condit > Alves:
- Condit should be more likely to rack up points with superior volume, pace, accuracy, etc. so he should be the round-winner, especially 3,4, 5
- As a Condit fan, I do worry a little bit that he relies on his sick chin too much and one day that might catch up with him, but I don't think it's this fight
- Both are great strikers but Alves didn't look great against Mein before finding what I would deem a relatively fluky finish out of nowhere after getting picked apart on the feet in a surprisingly not competitive first round (Alves landed a kick to the body that was hard but didn't look like it had fight ending power, but it landed in the perfect spot in Mein's gut, was sort of a weird finish IMO).
- Both fighters are violent and should bring it so I'd be a little surprised if this didn't get finished at some point, prolly Condit via after hurting Alves in later rounds is most likely outcome
- Should be a great technical fight with flashes of awesome violence and toughness displayed by both dudes
- Will probably bet on Condit in some capacity, not sure how yet



To me, this is dog or pass.
Alves could easily be on peds, he can very easily steal a decision here in brazil, he will have crowd's energy, condit could in theory still have injury issues, and condit has poor odds, lots of risks
That being said, Condit is probably the better fighter

james9994: make note dont play against floofy, ;( 

PuertoRican   United States. May 28 2015 02:59. Posts 13024


  On May 28 2015 00:02 soberstone wrote:
I didn't post as I was watching the fights out in Norcal live with the homie traxamillion.



Where at? I'm in Sunnyvale.

Rekrul is a newbLast edit: 28/05/2015 03:00

soberstone   United States. May 28 2015 03:10. Posts 2662


  On May 28 2015 01:59 PuertoRican wrote:
Show nested quote +



Where at? I'm in Sunnyvale.


The Graton casino.

Ever been? Pretty great for poker and fight combination - they show all the fights (they even said they showed the Horiguchi MM card, rofl), no cover and plenty of seating, and as for poker - super profitable 1/3 and 2/5 tables going with no pre-flop drop

 Last edit: 28/05/2015 03:11

PuertoRican   United States. May 28 2015 03:10. Posts 13024


  On May 28 2015 00:20 Floofy wrote:
Show nested quote +



To me, this is dog or pass.
Alves could easily be on peds, he can very easily steal a decision here in brazil, he will have crowd's energy, condit could in theory still have injury issues, and condit has poor odds, lots of risks
That being said, Condit is probably the better fighter





Alves wouldn't want to try and used PEDs nowadays. He's been out for so long, and he knows that the UFC does their own testing in Brazil. Vitor is a different story.


  On May 28 2015 02:10 soberstone wrote:
Show nested quote +



The Graton casino.

Ever been? Pretty great for poker and fight combination - they show all the fights, no cover and plenty of seating, and as for poker - super profitable 1/3 and 2/5 tables going with no pre-flop drop



I've never heard of the Graton Casino. Looking at Google, it's not near where I live.

Regarding poker, I'm not really interested in it these days. Kinda funny considering I post on a poker related website.

Rekrul is a newbLast edit: 28/05/2015 03:13

Nazgul    Netherlands. May 28 2015 11:44. Posts 7080

Not really seeing any lines I like T_T

Either guys with long layoffs (Lentz 1 year StarCraft represent, Condit has fought once in two years, Alves has fought twice in three years) or fighters I haven't seen much of. I'm excited for the main event two of my favorite fighters will suck to see one of them lose. Also always looking forward to seeing Lentz on a card, but besides those two fights not too much here for me.

You almost twin-caracked his AK - JonnyCosmo 

soberstone   United States. May 29 2015 00:14. Posts 2662


  On May 28 2015 10:44 Nazgul wrote:
Not really seeing any lines I like T_T

Either guys with long layoffs (Lentz 1 year StarCraft represent, Condit has fought once in two years, Alves has fought twice in three years) or fighters I haven't seen much of. I'm excited for the main event two of my favorite fighters will suck to see one of them lose. Also always looking forward to seeing Lentz on a card, but besides those two fights not too much here for me.



Was Lentz a sick SC player?


Stim_Abuser   United States. May 29 2015 00:34. Posts 7499

Alves hasn't looked good lately. Was getting mauled by Mein and not looking great against Seth either. But if he grapples he can maybe take it. I mean Condit has the worst TDD of any top 10 fighter, and Alves takedowns and grappling are both pretty good.

Hey Im slinging mad volume and fat stackin benjies I dont got time for spellin n shit - skinny pete 

PuertoRican   United States. May 29 2015 02:01. Posts 13024




There's a good 15 seconds between the part where Jones leaves the vehicle and then comes back for the money. The person who made this should've had 5 seconds between the two shots at most. Still funny though.

Rekrul is a newbLast edit: 29/05/2015 02:04

Nazgul    Netherlands. May 29 2015 11:27. Posts 7080


  On May 28 2015 23:14 soberstone wrote:
Show nested quote +



Was Lentz a sick SC player?

Lentz is a casual player probably got up to master or something, but definitely a big esports fan. He visited a bunch of MLGs and hung out with people there. Razer sponsored him for a while as well http://www.razerzone.com/team/lifestyle/nik-lentz/

You almost twin-caracked his AK - JonnyCosmoLast edit: 29/05/2015 11:29

handbanana21   United States. May 29 2015 11:47. Posts 3037


  On May 28 2015 01:59 PuertoRican wrote:
Show nested quote +



Where at? I'm in Sunnyvale.


do you train at aka?


Nazgul    Netherlands. May 29 2015 15:59. Posts 7080

You almost twin-caracked his AK - JonnyCosmo 

PuertoRican   United States. May 29 2015 18:34. Posts 13024





  On May 29 2015 10:47 handbanana21 wrote:
Show nested quote +



do you train at aka?



No.

----------

The UFC is using a big cage for this event.

----------


Rekrul is a newbLast edit: 30/05/2015 01:01

Minsk   United States. May 30 2015 01:08. Posts 1558

What do you guys think about Fransisco Trinaldo at 3.2ML?

So far I like the Alex Olivera ML and O2.5 on Bektik/Martins,
Alves ITD @ 5.18, Condit/Alves Wont Start Round 5 @ 1.718.
Bektik Wins by Decision @ 2.2

 Last edit: 30/05/2015 01:12

soberstone   United States. May 30 2015 01:24. Posts 2662

Dude Nik Lentz looked like death.

That is the first time I've felt physically uncomfortable watching a guy trudge out. I think there's gonna be a death from guys doing what he's doing in the UFC (it's already happened on the amateur a few times). It's easily the most dangerous part of the sport doing what Lentz just did.

Def gonna bit Charles via submission at +155 if it becomes available on bookmaker. He's gonna sub him for sho.


 
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