#1 18,500 to win 48,000 = 38.5% is how often we need to win to break even on a call. He's risking 18,500 to win 29,500 = 62.7% of the time he needs to win the pot to break even if he's bluffing.
I'd say his value range could be AA, QQ, AQ/KQ/QJ/QT/Q9s/Qxhh, TT, KJ, possibly AK/AJ(unlikely + we have blockers)
Around 43 combos, if you include AJ into his range, 39 if not.
His bluff range could be Ax(AT/A9/A8/A7/A6/A5/A4/A3/A2), KT, K9hh, JT, all low heart draws(98/97/96/87/86/85/76/75/74/65/64/63/54/53/52/43/42/32 hh), random air sometimes
A quick look in equilab gives me 39 combos with card removal and I removed some lower Ax from his range(without reads), removed a few combos of KT and left only one combo of JT
So his range is dependent on his style and tendencies. Some people never bluff rivers, some people bluff them a lot. A typical river overbet shove is going to be for value more often than not.
If his range is 39 combos of air, 39 value, yea we should call(because we only need to win 38% of the time and we would win 50% in this example). But he might only bluff half of those combos, or worse, none.
In the end I guess it's just " opponent dependent " . Is your opponent capable of bluffing like this? Does he think you're capable of folding? What does he put you on? Does he really expect you to fold the river?
I don't know the games you are playing in, but I don't hate either calling or folding(lol). Folding is fine and most likely the best play against a standard opponent, because he has a strong hand often in his betting range. Also, we have better bluff catchers in our range. Calling is reasonable too, because play money, and he doesn't have to be bluffing all that often for it to be ok/correct. But he's probably not bluffing often enough on the river
BTW the range I used is incorrect to some degree and should be more tailored to your reads/stats/history of him |
