[Poll] 1 mill or 1 billion

Poll: What would you choose?
(Vote): 1 million cash
(Vote): Coin flip for a billion
(Vote): Don't know

1 million cash
bye

definitely gamble for a billion

Good question, its an hard one.

I think this is easy for really poor people, where 1 mil really changes everything.
Its also easy for people already worth a few mils, go for the gamble.

But for guys like me its a tough one. I think the smart decision would be to take the gamble, because nowadays 1 mil isn't actually that much, and it would not change my life THAT much, while 1 bil would change everything. But if i lost the flip that would be really frustrating.

How many times do I get to play the game? ;-)

On April 06 2015 23:23 HungarianGOD wrote: How many times do I get to play the game? ;-)

I don't think this matters much.

If given 2 flips, i think the first flip going to the bil is a no brainer. Then if you win, your second decision is obviously going to be the bil again. But if you lost, its the same as if u were given a single flip lol

where I am now, $1 million would pay my mortgage + another awesome house meaning I could live in the other one and rent out this one and have enough income from renting out this one that I basically wouldn't need any income beyond that. So I'd be set and never have to be concerned with money again - and I would still want to work, just maybe not a full normal week.

I don't really care for the stuff I can buy beyond that.. I'd easily take the $1mill, no question about it. I think I'd take the $1mill even if it wasn't a flip, but an 80/20. More than that, and it becomes tough.

heads for 1 billion

lol if i was wealthier ez flip but i snap take million where i am now.

On April 06 2015 23:28 Liquid`Drone wrote: where I am now, $1 million would pay my mortgage + another awesome house meaning I could live in the other one and rent out this one and have enough income from renting out this one that I basically wouldn't need any income beyond that. So I'd be set and never have to be concerned with money again - and I would still want to work, just maybe not a full normal week. I don't really care for the stuff I can buy beyond that.. I'd easily take the $1mill, no question about it. I think I'd take the $1mill even if it wasn't a flip, but an 80/20. More than that, and it becomes tough.

Donate 500 million if you win...

Im pretty shocked so many of you would take the million... come on its a thousands time the reward, unless you lived in extreme poverty in a 3rd world country where 1 mill is huge just take the flip

don't know coz im a huge nit

Close my eyes and flip.

this isnt even close

if #1 was 5 mill it would be closer

its easy to get a million. impossibly difficult to get to A billion

On April 07 2015 01:03 casinocasino wrote: its easy to get a million. impossibly difficult to get to A billion

maybe easy for you to get a million.

I guess the question depends on who you ask, where they're from/where they live, what they've seen in life, and how old they are.

I'd insta-flip a coin for $1 billion dollars, knowing that I'd be giving up an easy $1 million dollars.

$1 billion can change my life, and the lives of any future children and grandchildren I might have someday, while $1 million dollars can easily be spent during one weekend in Las Vegas.

On April 06 2015 23:58 Baalim wrote: Im pretty shocked so many of you would take the million... come on its a thousands time the reward, unless you lived in extreme poverty in a 3rd world country where 1 mill is huge just take the flip

a million dollars is still a lot of money pretty much everywhere and life-changing for most people. the most valuable resource we have is time, so let's say the average person here is 25 and has about 60 years left. even with a pretty good-paying job, it will still take most people at least 10 years to accumulate $1mln (after taxes, living expenses, etc), and a lot probably won't do it until they're close to retirement age. obviously there's jobs that can do it in less time, but they aren't attainable for most.

i don't know about any actual data on the subject, but from listening to people it seems like the vast majority don't love their jobs. they might be interested in their field and find certain aspects rewarding, but overall i'm guessing most would happily quit if they were guaranteed financial security. for someone who isn't obsessed with climbing the wealth ladder, $1mln is enough to never have to work again if they diversify it in low-risk investments to hedge against inflation. one decade++ spending the majority of your waking hours doing something you'd prefer not to be doing, during the peak physical years of your life, is a huge burden that a million dollars can lift.

i also don't think being 1000x the amount of money is a good way to look at it. what's the real utility of having $1billion vs 500 million vs 100 million? i realize the answer is different for everyone, but i think for me there wouldn't be much difference.

all that said i probably still take the flip for $1 billion, but i don't think it's ridiculous at all to take a guaranteed million.

On April 06 2015 23:27 Floofy wrote: Show nested quote + On April 06 2015 23:23 HungarianGOD wrote: How many times do I get to play the game? ;-) I don't think this matters much. If given 2 flips, i think the first flip going to the bil is a no brainer. Then if you win, your second decision is obviously going to be the bil again. But if you lost, its the same as if u were given a single flip lol

It matters a ton; in finance the risk of a decision is almost as important as the expectation of an event (and I say almost because of 1 specific exception).

Everybody always wants to maximize expectation, but people have very different ways of valuing different kinds of risks; an individual's personal function for measuring the value of a decision based on the combination of both the expectation and the different risks of that decision is an individual's "utility function". Utility functions can be drastically different from person to person.

Most people here are not particularly risk adverse... We are all poker players, and in most situations we very happy to add additional risk in order to increase expectation. As such, I'd guess most people here (myself included) would take the flip for a billion. However, most of us have lines we will not cross. I leave you with an oft cited example in finance demonstrating this, that even for those of us who are very risk adverse, we almost always have our limits

The scenario is this:


There is a game that somebody is considering letting you play. In this game, you get to flip a fair coin, and you keep flipping it until you get heads. Once you get heads, the game stops, and you walk away with whatever you have won. If you get heads on the first flip, you walk away with $1, but for every time you get tails, the amount you win doubles. The question is this: How much would YOU pay to be willing to play this game?

If you are purely trying to go with the most +EV thing to do, the answer is any finite sum of money. You would be willing to pay the entire GDP of the planet earth ^1000000 in order to play this game once, even though in the vast majority of the time you will win a paltry sum. The reason is the expected value of playing this game once if infinite.

Mathematical demonstration:
+ Show Spoiler +

On April 07 2015 01:58 HungarianGOD wrote: Show nested quote + On April 06 2015 23:27 Floofy wrote:   On April 06 2015 23:23 HungarianGOD wrote: How many times do I get to play the game? ;-) I don't think this matters much. If given 2 flips, i think the first flip going to the bil is a no brainer. Then if you win, your second decision is obviously going to be the bil again. But if you lost, its the same as if u were given a single flip lol It matters a ton; in finance the risk of a decision is almost as important as the expectation of an event (and I say almost because of 1 specific exception). Everybody always wants to maximize expectation, but people have very different ways of valuing different kinds of risks; an individual's personal function for measuring the value of a decision based on the combination of both the expectation and the different risks of that decision is an individual's "utility function". Utility functions can be drastically different from person to person. Most people here are not particularly risk adverse... We are all poker players, and in most situations we very happy to add additional risk in order to increase expectation. As such, I'd guess most people here (myself included) would take the flip for a billion. However, most of us have lines we will not cross. I leave you with an oft cited example in finance demonstrating this, that even for those of us who are very risk adverse, we almost always have our limits The scenario is this: There is a game that somebody is considering letting you play. In this game, you get to flip a fair coin, and you keep flipping it until you get heads. Once you get heads, the game stops, and you walk away with whatever you have won. If you get heads on the first flip, you walk away with $1, but for every time you get tails, the amount you win doubles. The question is this: How much would YOU pay to be willing to play this game? If you are purely trying to go with the most +EV thing to do, the answer is any finite sum of money. You would be willing to pay the entire GDP of the planet earth ^1000000 in order to play this game once, even though in the vast majority of the time you will win a paltry sum. The reason is the expected value of playing this game once if infinite. Mathematical demonstration: + Show Spoiler + let 'a' = the value of event a happening, and p(a) the probability that event 'a' happens Definition of EV: p(a) * a + p(b) *b + ... + p(n) * n + ... In this case, we get p($1) * $1 + p($2) *$2 + p($4) * $4 + ... + p($2^n)*$2^n + ... = 1/2 * $1 + 1/4 * $2 + 1/8 * $4 + ... + (1/2)^n * $2^(n-1) + ... = 1/2 + 1/2 + 1/2 + ... + 1/2 + ... = infinity So the expectation is infinite.

I don't think you've read my post??

Given 2 chances, you will surely use your first chance on the billion.
Then if you do get the bil, you will surely go for bil again.
But if it fails, then you go back to the initial question.