question about a game

i dont see why he should have to pay a penalty. its not like he gains any advantage from missing a day (arguably he loses ev from times he has money in the jackpot from previous days and doesnt get to guess on the day he misses)

On January 13 2015 04:58 PoorUser wrote: i dont see why he should have to pay a penalty. its not like he gains any advantage from missing a day (arguably he loses ev from times he has money in the jackpot from previous days and doesnt get to guess on the day he misses)

Doesn't he though?

Day 1 : Mike,John and Sam put 3$
Day 2: Mike and John put additional 2$, Sam misses
Day 3: pot is 5$, Sam gets to play for 8$ after everyone plays, he gains value, not 2$ value, but 2$ - x$ where x is the % chance of losing the JP previous day


seems legit to me?

He should be paying some kind of a penalty, but unless he s a cheapass 1$ is okay I guess

uh if you miss a day at the casino do you gotta pay penalty for jackpots there too the next time you go?

On January 13 2015 02:00 PuertoRican wrote: If everyone puts $1 into the prize pool every day, then it shouldn't matter if someone is sick, he/she should have to put $1 into the prize pool for every day he/she missed. Example: If you Mike wins the jackpot on Thursday, but David didn't go to work that day, then David owes Mike $1 the next time he comes to work.

this doesn't make sense, david shouldn't have to add money to the jackpot if he didn't get a shot at hitting the jackpot. If nobody hit it on Thursday and David wanted to play on Friday then it's reasonable to charge him a penalty.

On January 13 2015 09:32 JohnnyBologna wrote: uh if you miss a day at the casino do you gotta pay penalty for jackpots there too the next time you go?

Indeed. The punishment for being absent is he misses the jackpot if it hits.

i know its likely incalculable, but empirically, what are the rough odds of someone hitting the jackpot?

No, there should be a penalty, as you can gain an edge by not guessing the days you don't think you can guess profitably.

So you only play the days with more quality guesses, giving you an edge.

On January 13 2015 07:30 Spitfiree wrote: Show nested quote + On January 13 2015 04:58 PoorUser wrote: i dont see why he should have to pay a penalty. its not like he gains any advantage from missing a day (arguably he loses ev from times he has money in the jackpot from previous days and doesnt get to guess on the day he misses) Doesn't he though? Day 1 : Mike,John and Sam put 3$ Day 2: Mike and John put additional 2$, Sam misses Day 3: pot is 5$, Sam gets to play for 8$ after everyone plays, he gains value, not 2$ value, but 2$ - x$ where x is the % chance of losing the JP previous day seems legit to me? He should be paying some kind of a penalty, but unless he s a cheapass 1$ is okay I guess

errrrr oops ya that too. i guess its complicated to figure out then. if you guys are hardcore record keepers you could just make each person ineligible for the amount of money put into the jackpot on the days theyve missed (and maybe if a person has missed a few days and wins the jackpot, then the extra money in would just go to the person who was the next closest) .

given its just a dollar bet among friends, i'd probably go with if the jackpot doesnt hit often and the friend isnt often absent than its fine to let him back without paying a penalty. if its generally hit in a short amount of time then probably make him pay the extra $1

I think the EV of skipping a day looks like this:

there are 4 possible scenarios of skipping a day:

#1: You would have won yesterday if u were there, but at least ur co-workers didn't win it and you can continue playing with boosted up pot.
#2 Nobody would have won yesterday, even if you were there.
#3 People won it yesterday while u weren't there, but if you participated, you would have lost anyways
#4 People won it yesterday while u weren't there, but if you participated, you would have won

Here are the EVs:
#1 -7$ (You would have made 9$, but instead your still playing in a 2$ value pot).
#2 +1$ (you saved the money you would have put in the pot)
#3 +1$ (you saved the money you would have put in the pot)
#4 -9$ (You would have made 9$ if you came)

So it seems like, if the odds to find the price of crude oil is VERY LOW, then its definetly +EV to skip a lot of days, but if its very high, then its -EV

ok

@daut odds would be somewhere between 30-50 to 1 of guessing it, and there are 5 people playing

if odds were 10000-1 and we were playing for like 100 years and jackpot ended up being $1million, then someone who wasnt involved in the game could not start playing. therefore i think you have to pay a penalty

but i do agree with floofy. so the cutoff point would be when the the prize pool matches the odds of guessing....hmmmm

but if no guess there is a jackpot.

I think the best solution is, make the person pay the penalty, but allow him 2 guesses when he pays a penalty. This way, its -EV to skip days, but not too much.

Make him pay the dollar
Its a dollar.

But there shouldn't be penalty

Make him pay the dollar and on the day he is not there + make his bid equal to his previous bid.

Or someone can just make a phone call, text or e-mail?

There shouldn't be a penalty...

He just doesn't get to guess.

Penalty only if the person not paying is +EV. Kinda basing off of Floofy's post.

Example,

Assume 5 guys, chance of winning 1/100.

If pot is < $100, penalty is in place with person's guess same as previous posted price.
If pot is = or > $100, no penalty as it would be +EV for others to play with you not playing.

On January 14 2015 16:59 TalentedTom wrote: Or someone can just make a phone call, text or e-mail?

welp