UFC 162: Silva vs Weidman - Page 8

$1 for 4,039.24 I'd try it

problem is silva isn't losing

I feel like if Silva loses the metagame early on it ll be a loss for him ...

It's a wrap folks... Anderson just gave Weidman the kiss of death...

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$100 on weidman/frankie parlay

but most likely I just donated

On July 05 2013 18:49 Zadan wrote: $100 on weidman/frankie parlay but most likely I just donated

I don't really like that parlay, but that's just me.

If I were you, I would have bet Weidman by himself. You generally don't put underdogs in parlays because they already have good odds, aka plus money (+210). You put people in parlays to cut the cost betting on heavy favorites. Like, if I wanted to bet on Barboza/Egar/Pierce, I would put them in the same parlay because their lines are -540/-600/-600.

Putting different props in the same parlay is a different story, as you can turn $2 into $100 if you choose wisely.

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"Anderson Silva could bank $800,000 at UFC 162; Weidman stands to make $48,000."

Top-five pay-per-view draw and middleweight champ Anderson Silva (33-4 MMA, 16-0 UFC), who recently inked a new 10-fight contract with the UFC, will bank a guaranteed $600,000 for fighting challenger Chris Weidman (9-0 MMA, 5-0 UFC), according to figures from the Nevada State Athletic Commission.

Silva, 38, stands to earn an additional $200,000 by defending his title an 11th time, which would add to his UFC record. The 29-year-old Weidman, meanwhile, is guaranteed $24,000 and an additional $24,000 if he makes history by taking the belt.

http://www.mmajunkie.com/news/2013/07...-ufc-162-weidman-stands-to-make-48000

this is gonna b sweet, i cant wait to watch anderson do what he does.

On July 05 2013 19:32 PuertoRican wrote: If I were you, I would have bet Weidman by himself. You generally don't put underdogs in parlays because they already have good odds, aka plus money (+210). You put people in parlays to cut the cost betting on heavy favorites. Like, if I wanted to bet on Barboza/Egar/Pierce, I would put them in the same parlay because their lines are -540/-600/-600.

What kind of crazy logic is this

On July 05 2013 20:51 b97531 wrote: Show nested quote + On July 05 2013 19:32 PuertoRican wrote: If I were you, I would have bet Weidman by himself. You generally don't put underdogs in parlays because they already have good odds, aka plus money (+210). You put people in parlays to cut the cost betting on heavy favorites. Like, if I wanted to bet on Barboza/Egar/Pierce, I would put them in the same parlay because their lines are -540/-600/-600. What kind of crazy logic is this

Maybe I'm explaining it wrong, but, I can say this: You generally put people in a parlay that you can't afford to pay for in a single/money line bet. There's a term called "parlay material," which is used for fighters who are considered favorites to win their match, and when their betting lines are too high, you put them in a parlay. For example, Mike Pierce is considered parlay material because most people don't see a way for him to lose this fight, however, his betting line is ridiculously high.

Zadan wants to bet on Weidman to win, which is okay, but Weidman's money line is currently +200, so you would bet that by itself, not add it to a parlay where things become riskier.

If I were Zadan, I'd make a single bet on Weidman, then add Frankie in a separate parlay.

Anyone knows how a KO win is defined in betting? Is a Ko and TKO in betting the same? So there is like Winning by decision/submission/tko or does it just say "won in time" and "won by decision" ?

Sounds absurd but it just crossed my mind that nobody gives Weidman a non submission winning chance.
I mean Chael couldn't win vs Anderson in 5rounds even tho he threw like 200 punches. But lets say Weidman gets the same positions and ground and pounds and actually does damage against Anderson, isn't that like +2000 or so? :D

Might not be a bad bet to make if the odds are good, as I think there is a small chance that if Weidman wins, it could also be by ko/tko

On July 05 2013 21:43 FiSheYe wrote: Anyone knows how a KO win is defined in betting? Is a Ko and TKO in betting the same? So there is like Winning by decision/submission/tko or does it just say "won in time" and "won by decision" ? Sounds absurd but it just crossed my mind that nobody gives Weidman a non submission winning chance. I mean Chael couldn't win vs Anderson in 5rounds even tho he threw like 200 punches. But lets say Weidman gets the same positions and ground and pounds and actually does damage against Anderson, isn't that like +2000 or so? :D Might not be a bad bet to make if the odds are good, as I think there is a small chance that if Weidman wins, it could also be by ko/tko

http://www.bestfightodds.com/

The highest odds for Weidman via KO/TKO is +950 at BetOnline. The main bookies, like 5dimes and Bookmaker, have the same prop bet in the +400's. Pinnacle is the other main bookie, but they don't have that prop bet listed.

And yes, TKO and KO are the same thing in betting. However, you can sometimes get "Inside the Distance" at a similar price, or sometimes at a better price. If you can get a good price, it's smarter to bet on the fight ending ITD instead of by KO/TKO, obviously.

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Updated prop bets that I like #2

- Parke by Submission +925
- Craig/Leben ITD +105
- Herman/Gonzaga starts round 2 -104
- Melancon/Baczynski won't go 3 round distance +140
- Baczynski by submission +400
- Pierce ITD +175 (this line will probably get better on fight-day)
- Rafaello Oliveira ITD +705, Submission +1425, KO/TKO +1440 (Rafaello might try to bum rush Barboza and close the distance like Jamie Varner did, so if you want to gamble, these lines are juicy.)

was reading pros predictions and the best one was this:

Rampage Jackson: "I don't even know who Chris Weidman is."

lol

On July 05 2013 20:51 b97531 wrote: Show nested quote + On July 05 2013 19:32 PuertoRican wrote: If I were you, I would have bet Weidman by himself. You generally don't put underdogs in parlays because they already have good odds, aka plus money (+210). You put people in parlays to cut the cost betting on heavy favorites. Like, if I wanted to bet on Barboza/Egar/Pierce, I would put them in the same parlay because their lines are -540/-600/-600. What kind of crazy logic is this

agreed completely do not let him pollute your mind. putting heavy favorites into a parlay just because you "cant afford" to bet them individually is illogical. Cutting the cost of heavy favorites is another retarded statement lol. the bettor in question would be losing all value in his MMA plays if he slams several big favorites together into a parlay. this is because any value at their -400 to -600 lines will be instantly dumped into a barrel of sulfuric acid due to parlays having horrendous payouts beyond 2-teamers

If you guys need something to do/watch before UFC 162, there's a small European event (Cage Warriors) that's offering a free stream. Cage Warriors usually puts on decent events, but this card has a bunch of randoms, so I dunno what to expect.

Anyway, Cage Warriors 56 starts at 15:00 LP.net / 1pm PST / 4pm EST, and can be viewed here: http://cagewarriors.mmajunkie.com/


Vincent del Guerra vs. Bola Omoyele
Patrik Berisha vs. Robbie Olivier
Brett Bassett vs. Denniston Sutherland
Nad Narimani vs. Graham Turner
Warren Kee vs. Philip Mulpeter
Fabrio Ferrari vs. Brett Sizeland

My UFC 162 bets

+ Show Spoiler +

Anyone think charles oliveria worthy of a play at vig free price of +463? no clue who the fk he is but +463 and considering edgars mentality since past decisions plus the fact that he gets tagged quite frequently in all the fights he is in (win or lose)

actually i think his mentality is going to be super strong for this one

On July 06 2013 14:33 MysticJoey wrote: actually i think his mentality is going to be super strong for this one

I hope so, cuz that hopefully means he will come out hard and throw a lot of strikes. The more strikes the better, cuz that means someone will get finished. A finish is what I want.

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The JUST BLEED God will have a reckoning tonight - by Taichou

http://forums.sherdog.com/forums/f2/j...-will-have-reckoning-tonight-2501739/

On July 06 2013 14:21 RaiNKhAN wrote: Anyone think charles oliveria worthy of a play at vig free price of +463? no clue who the fk he is but +463 and considering edgars mentality since past decisions plus the fact that he gets tagged quite frequently in all the fights he is in (win or lose)

You gotta realize how giant of a step down in competition Oliveria is from guys like Penn, Maynard, Bendo & Aldo.

I don't like the bet even at those odds, but I'm kind of a Edgar fanboy so I dunno

On July 06 2013 15:51 Stim_Abuser wrote: Show nested quote + On July 06 2013 14:21 RaiNKhAN wrote: Anyone think charles oliveria worthy of a play at vig free price of +463? no clue who the fk he is but +463 and considering edgars mentality since past decisions plus the fact that he gets tagged quite frequently in all the fights he is in (win or lose) You gotta realize how giant of a step down in competition Oliveria is from guys like Penn, Maynard, Bendo & Aldo.

yea such a thing is not possible when i dont know who he is, but those odds seem so good, if the guy had no shot wouldn't it be like +800 or something? seems like a decent amount of respect given to this charles fellow

Weidman got balls. Apparently he declined to renegotiate his contract for this fight. So instead of it being a big money fight, he's making his standard pay. He's doing this so he can renegotiate his contract as champion if he wins.

That's a big gamble lol.

http://www.mmajunkie.com/news/2013/03/ufc-162s-chris-weidman-ready-to-put-my-money-where-my-mouth-is-for-new-deal