UFC 162: Silva vs Weidman - Page 4

Am I the one of the few who think that Weidman has a serious chance to win?

His wrestling might not be as perfect for double leg takedowns as Chael's is but Weidman is much better in submissions.
His Standup is much better than Chael's and he is as agressive and driven as Sonnen.

When I look at all the fighters Silva fought, there is Dan Henderson who might have had a shot but was overwhelmed. Then there was Vitor Belfort who could have posed problems for Silva but we didn't get to that point due to the beautiful frontkick....
And there was Chael Sonnen, who dominanted Anderson for 5 rounds and lost because of his weak submission defense.
In the 2nd fight he was owning Anderson again but then slipped in round 2.
Now imagine a younger version of Chael with a little less good wrestling when it comes to takedowns but much better submissions/submission defense and better hands. There is a decent chance Silva could get dominated again and even submitted.

Lets look at Weidmans important fights:
-He fought Uriah Hall and KOed him in big fashion when his hands were just in the beginning
-He completely outgrappled/outwrestled Tom Lawlor and put him to sleep
-He lost 32pounds on 11days notice vs Damian Maia who is on a title run himself and beat him even tho the weight cut/ and the short camp was a big factor
-He finished Mark Munoz in a way that still makes me look away on the video footage because it's too violent.
Munoz was only finished once by Hamill and that was early on in his career.

GSP believes Weidman will win, his BJJ coach John Donaher said that he has barely ever seen anyone who learns quicker than Weidman. Weidman fought in a BJJ tournament with little to no practise at all as a white belt and submitted all 13 opponents to win the tournament. Even Roger Gracie (arguably #1 in BJJ) says that Weidman can submit him and is dangerous on world class lvl. He wrestled with Phil Davis and Ryan Bader who both fight a weight class above nowdays and won. Weidman has this nice-guy gsp-ish personality of being extremely friendly and soaking up knowledge; gathering the right ppl around him and having a balanced and focused personality. Haven't seen anyone as driven and as fearless in a while and my gut feeling is rarely wrong.

I wanted to place a big bet on weidman if he would have been +400 or so, but all these fighter-hype-videos kinda make the line more balanced and there are dangers, too...

Now lets talk about why I think this is a dangerous bet to make at +200-250:
-He was seriously injured and this is his first shoulder injury even tho he wrestled on a very high level before. He has recovered but who knows if he really is 100% by the time he walks into the octagon
-I see all this high potential of a future title winner but is he good enough right now? Ray Longo and Weidman are very good friends and I am sure Longo is a great trainer.. but can he compete with the workout a GSP, Cain Velasquez, Anderson SIlva or Jon Jones gets in on a daily basis? Is he really pushing himself/getting pushed to that level yet?
-How good is Anderson right now? I think Khan is exaggerating a lot, Silva is still the GOAT even tho I believe Jon Jones is the better fighter.

Tbh I believe Weidman is the most dangerous fighter that Anderson Silva has faced, but I am just not sure if he is healthy/skilled enough to claim that titel yet. In 2 Years Weidman will be much better and Silva will be on a serious age-related decline so this is the best time for Anderson to fight.

If you have a source for +300 to bet on I would be interested

Nobody is arguing Weidman isn't a great fighter.

It's just that Anderson finds a way to humiliate everyone.

^ the line isn't set b/c of ufc-hype related stuff. if that were the case then an enormous amount of sharp money would have pounded the line way back up to where it should have been if that were the case. As is, the line has and still is hovering in mid 200s range. seriously that was one of the dumber things PR has ever said MMA related lol

fisheye I like weidman here a lot but the points you make about not feeling too good about only getting +230ish are strong. fights like these hardly ever offer great prices when so much attention is brought onto it that it allows line makers to be oh so accurate

Hey Puerto Rican, just saw your video and it basically sums up what I posted (haven't seen it before tho).
I am just saying I think a healthy 100% Weidman has a 30-40% chance of winning, maybe more.
It comes down to health, how he handles the pressure (which he seemed to do well but you never know) and if he is able to overcome adversity against Silva, as this is a different kind of adversity than he has faced in wrestling/past mma bouts.

K40Cheddar, I do agree but tbh most fighters that Anderson fought were overhyped or a mismatch.
Damian Maia could have had a chance but his wrestling was too weak back then and might not be on the right level even right now. Weidman has this different aura tho, Chael had it and Jones has it. Velasquez, too.. That look in their eyes where you see the determination and the focus combined with their track record...Never being beaten might make him less hesitant and therefor he could get put to sleep, but on the other hand he will go forward and be as agressive as a man who never felt the pain of defeat inside the ring. If Silva cannot knockout/hurt Weidman early I doubt he will be able to win in 5 rounds. This could be Chael 2.0

Rainkhan I am a total betting fish. Made maybe 3 bets lifetime and won like 3k (soccer).
I thought the lines are

comparable to how Betfair works, depending on who bets on what and that psychology is a big part...

Damn I wish the lines were different but +230 just seems not like a great bet with these unknown factors
Haven't been as excited about a Main Event since JDS vs Velasquez!

fisheye i agree with you almost 100%. if you want to bet on weidman, your best bet is to just wait it out. brazilians always get bet really really hard right before the fight and the line on weidman will probably close at +280

at this point im probably not gonna bet the fight. maybe will bet anderson by TKO and weidman by submission cause i think one of those 2 things will happen almost always.

thinking about it some more, this might be the best fight to try and use some mathematical reasoning to figure out how often certain results happen. i.e. we can guess based on previous fights how often weidman gets a takedown in round 1, how often he gets the submission after that takedown, how much those percentages go down by round and the % anderson finishes him over any given amount of time standing.

I like, "Weidman/Silva won't start round 3" at -115. It's much better than "under 2.5 rounds" at -155.

Weidman's 2 decisions in the UFC were when he took short notice fights; those fights were against Sakara and Maia. Sakara was Weidman's first fight in the UFC.

Anderson's 4 fights in the UFC that started round 3 were against Leites, Maia, Cote, and Sonnen; three of those guys are grappler's with sub-par or no striking at all, during the time. The fight against Cote only lasted 39 seconds into round 3. Also, Anderson's other 12 fights in the UFC ended in the 1st or 2nd round.

wait.. since when was Sonnen dominating fight 2 till he slipped?

Silva was dominating him easily and then he tried a retarded spinning elbow (wtf) and slipped and looked up on Silva with a face of fear, watch it again he might as well tapped before silva pounced with that knee.

On June 26 2013 20:22 Baalim wrote: wait.. since when was Sonnen dominating fight 2 till he slipped? Silva was dominating him easily and then he tried a retarded spinning elbow (wtf) and slipped and looked up on Silva with a face of fear, watch it again he might as well tapped before silva pounced with that knee.

Here's Silva vs. Sonnen #2, in case you guys wanted to watch it again (might need to login to view it): http://www.fights4all.com/anderson-si...-chael-sonnen-ii-video_9ad9bab7a.html

Here's some of his other matches: http://www.fights4all.com/search.php?keywords=Anderson+Silva&btn.x=0&btn.y=0

I just want to clarify that I wasn't talking about Silva/Weidman winning in comparison to the betting line but instead wanted to make a point that even though Weidman is a great prospect and I agree with all his excellent skills some sort of magic is gonna happen and Silva is gonna do his voodoo shit that he always does.

And you guys realize his first fight against Sonnen he had a broken rib right? 2nd Chael fight was a rape fest.

Silva fights greatest threats each year if you listen to rogan or white.

On June 26 2013 20:22 Baalim wrote: wait.. since when was Sonnen dominating fight 2 till he slipped? Silva was dominating him easily and then he tried a retarded spinning elbow (wtf) and slipped and looked up on Silva with a face of fear, watch it again he might as well tapped before silva pounced with that knee.

?

Chael had him down for most of round 1 and got mount. Super easy Chael round.

Round 2 nothing happened other than Silva stuffing a couple of Chael takedowns by grabbing Chaels shorts. Then came the missed elbow slip and finish. Silva hadn't done anything significant in that fight up until that point IIRC.

^ I guess you forgot that Anderson repeatedly rubbed the vaseline off his face and was rubbed his arms and chest prior to the match starting. Yves Lavigne saw this and had to rub Anderson down with a towel after they finished doing the face-off in the center of the cage. Keith Kizer and Lorenzo Fertitta also saw it, as well as Rogan mentioning it on the stream as it happens.

Even with his cheating, I'm still taking Anderson over Weidman. (would be funny to see a DQ for some random shit though)




This image only shows the first rubs, he also rubs his face 2-3 times while facing the camera directly, but you need to watch the fight video for that: http://www.fights4all.com/anderson-si...-chael-sonnen-ii-video_9ad9bab7a.html

On June 26 2013 23:11 Stim_Abuser wrote: Show nested quote + On June 26 2013 20:22 Baalim wrote: wait.. since when was Sonnen dominating fight 2 till he slipped? Silva was dominating him easily and then he tried a retarded spinning elbow (wtf) and slipped and looked up on Silva with a face of fear, watch it again he might as well tapped before silva pounced with that knee. ? Chael had him down for most of round 1 and got mount. Super easy Chael round. Round 2 nothing happened other than Silva stuffing a couple of Chael takedowns by grabbing Chaels shorts. Then came the missed elbow slip and finish. Silva hadn't done anything significant in that fight up until that point IIRC.

this. chael had mount for i believe 2 minutes and silva neutralized him there. he was close to locking up an arm triangle if i remember right but silva just held on tight and chael rode out the round. anyway, if weidman got that position with that much time left, he would be near 50% to get the sub i think

I was browsing some Weidman stuff on youtube and came across this one, sick armbar:

Yea I think Weidman has a decent chance. Don't like the betting lines though.

I'm thinking of betting Kennedy over Gracie and Boetsch over Munoz. First one as a decent favourite and 2nd one as a slight underdog. Any thoughts?

Kenndy decisioned Jacare who's probably a lot like a better version of Gracie when it comes to MMA and Boetsch has looked like a monster lately except for the last fight while I haven't been impressed by Munoz.

On June 26 2013 23:11 Stim_Abuser wrote: Show nested quote + On June 26 2013 20:22 Baalim wrote: wait.. since when was Sonnen dominating fight 2 till he slipped? Silva was dominating him easily and then he tried a retarded spinning elbow (wtf) and slipped and looked up on Silva with a face of fear, watch it again he might as well tapped before silva pounced with that knee. ? Chael had him down for most of round 1 and got mount. Super easy Chael round. Round 2 nothing happened other than Silva stuffing a couple of Chael takedowns by grabbing Chaels shorts. Then came the missed elbow slip and finish. Silva hadn't done anything significant in that fight up until that point IIRC.

wut... i dont even remember the mount lol, need to watch it again.

Jeah Chael rocked round 1 and round 2 was Chael trying to get a takedown but getting stuffed.. Until he slipped the round was pretty open and then Silva unleashed his deadly hands and Chael just couldn't handle it.. Chael won a total of 6 rounds, lost 1 round in 2 fights. If Chael had better submission defense and submissions himself he might be #1 at 185. He looked like a toy vs Jon Jones, and thats scary. Imagine a guy that can wrestle with Chael and take HIM down, has more reach, better submissions/submission defense and godly standup and on top of that transitions almost as good as GSP -> Jon Jones

No matter who wins Weidman vs Silva, I don't believe the winner is even 40% to win vs Jones