Tonight’s Mega Millions lottery jackpot has grown to an estimated $640 million, according to the Massachusetts Lottery.The jackpot had already broken the record Thursday for the largest lottery prize in history.The new estimate, which was $100 million higher than Thursday’s, was announced this morning after officials from participating states spoke with each other and assessed the volume of ticket sales. Paul Sternburg, executive director of the Massachusetts Lottery, said the estimate was conservative and could rise even higher after all the ticket sales are tallied tonight.
The biggest jackpot ever! Given 1 out of 176 million to hit, could this be a +EV bet?!?
drawing tonight.
PS. The sum after taking out taxes and present value calculations will be around 350 million I think
time to open stake forum for loto !
LP family pot so people not from US can get hands on this juicy stuff and someone trusted will buy unlimited amount of tickets.
(troll)
redsnuff: bets all in with bad preflop hand and tell me to learn poker redsnuff: senceless
Last edit: 30/03/2012 15:21
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TalentedTom Canada. Mar 30 2012 15:28. Posts 20070
def + EV if you win
Our deepest fear is not that we are inadequate. Our deepest fear is that we are powerful beyond measure. It is our light not our darkness that most frightens us and as we let our own lights shine we unconsciously give other people permision to do the same
buy 320 million worth of tickets, and profit. At worse, if someone else gets it too, your back to even.
do it
I wish one of your guys had children if I could kick them in the fucking head or stomp on their testicles so you can feel my pain because thats the pain I have waking up everyday -- Mike Tyson
On March 30 2012 14:30 uiCk wrote:
buy 320 million worth of tickets, and profit. At worse, if someone else gets it too, your back to even.
do it
At worst you win and there's 10+ people with the same number and you get a low percentage of your investment back.
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TalentedTom Canada. Mar 30 2012 15:47. Posts 20070
On March 30 2012 14:30 uiCk wrote:
buy 320 million worth of tickets, and profit. At worse, if someone else gets it too, your back to even.
do it
at worst u win the lottery and get hit by a bus on your way to claim ur winnings
Our deepest fear is not that we are inadequate. Our deepest fear is that we are powerful beyond measure. It is our light not our darkness that most frightens us and as we let our own lights shine we unconsciously give other people permision to do the same
TT's scenario is 93% more likely to happen then taco's + Show Spoiler +
uploaded this, enjoy because it probably will be removed soon ;d
I wish one of your guys had children if I could kick them in the fucking head or stomp on their testicles so you can feel my pain because thats the pain I have waking up everyday -- Mike Tyson
Last edit: 30/03/2012 16:08
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TheHuHu3 United States. Mar 30 2012 16:19. Posts 5544
On March 30 2012 16:48 Daut wrote:
just bought 5 tickets. used kets strategy of picking only numbers between 32 and 56. fuck the birthday pickers
haha u remembered my lottery bumhunting strategy awesome.. must be years ago we talked about that
Last edit: 30/03/2012 18:45
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DooMeR United States. Mar 30 2012 19:22. Posts 8545
On March 30 2012 17:42 Svenman87 wrote:
rolling on 100 tickets
lullz
also - selling action on my tickets if interested....
20 dollars gets you .01%
LOL
I just saved a bunch of money on my car insurance, by running away from the scene of an accident.
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TalentedTom Canada. Mar 30 2012 19:23. Posts 20070
On March 30 2012 16:48 Daut wrote:
just bought 5 tickets. used kets strategy of picking only numbers between 32 and 56. fuck the birthday pickers
solid strategy, gl
Our deepest fear is not that we are inadequate. Our deepest fear is that we are powerful beyond measure. It is our light not our darkness that most frightens us and as we let our own lights shine we unconsciously give other people permision to do the same
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NewbSaibot United States. Mar 30 2012 19:52. Posts 4943
in the company pool for 175 tickets. After taxes and lump sum penalty, we'd each walk out with 4.6 mill currently.
bye now
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casinocasino Canada. Mar 30 2012 20:51. Posts 3343
they selling tickets in canada now... heard on the radio while driving
On March 30 2012 21:48 RaiNKhAN wrote:
it is never +ev b/c you pay shitload of taxes which negates the prizepool crossing the 0ev marker
has nothing to do with taxes. Even if a $1 lottery price was 10 billion dollar it wouldn't be +EV. Because of the math. But forget about the math. Think about it where do you think the money is coming from if it were to be +EV? the lottory corporation is donating?
In US everyone is happy as long as all the prices are rising. Unless its crude oil - Marc Faber
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chris United States. Mar 30 2012 23:55. Posts 5503
On March 30 2012 23:33 Baalim wrote:
the guys who bough 30k worth of tickets... retards, there is no other word for it, sry.
i feel dumb having bought 15 tickets when it was -EV. you'd think they would actually sit down and work out the math before doing that. i suppose for a professional gambler its a tax writeoff but still wtf
NewbSaibot: 18 TIMES THE SPEED OF LIGHT. Because FUCK YOU, Daut
Last edit: 31/03/2012 00:37
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traxamillion United States. Mar 31 2012 00:47. Posts 10468
On March 30 2012 21:34 capaneo wrote:
anyone who says this is +EV doesnt know math.
edit: or common sense.
clearly +ev tard due to rollover jackpot. PLENTY of dead money in this one.
after tax its like 460 million, odds to win 1/180 million
2:1 brah
only thing is you may have to chop
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traxamillion United States. Mar 31 2012 00:49. Posts 10468
that guy saying there are 490 million tickets in play is completely wrong.
most tickets that contributed to the prize pool HAVE ALREADY BRICKED IN PREVIOUS WEEKS
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traxamillion United States. Mar 31 2012 00:51. Posts 10468
On March 30 2012 21:48 RaiNKhAN wrote:
it is never +ev b/c you pay shitload of taxes which negates the prizepool crossing the 0ev marker
has nothing to do with taxes. Even if a $1 lottery price was 10 billion dollar it wouldn't be +EV. Because of the math. But forget about the math. Think about it where do you think the money is coming from if it were to be +EV? the lottory corporation is donating?
the money is from tickets that were bought in previous drawings and are no longer in play. I hate you bro I can only imagine how fat and ugly / loser you are.
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TalentedTom Canada. Mar 31 2012 00:52. Posts 20070
On March 30 2012 21:34 capaneo wrote:
anyone who says this is +EV doesnt know math.
edit: or common sense.
clearly +ev tard due to rollover jackpot. PLENTY of dead money in this one.
after tax its like 460 million, odds to win 1/180 million
2:1 brah
only thing is you may have to chop
yeah this, theres a lot of dead money from fish picking bad numbers
Our deepest fear is not that we are inadequate. Our deepest fear is that we are powerful beyond measure. It is our light not our darkness that most frightens us and as we let our own lights shine we unconsciously give other people permision to do the same
On March 30 2012 23:33 Baalim wrote:
the guys who bough 30k worth of tickets... retards, there is no other word for it, sry.
i feel dumb having bought 15 tickets when it was -EV. you'd think they would actually sit down and work out the math before doing that. i suppose for a professional gambler its a tax writeoff but still wtf
Actually i think equity in lottery isnt that important, its all about the variance, does it really matters if it pays 90% or 110%?.
We are too used to ignore variance/risk aversion in general because we assume we are rolled for the scenario we play, so we focus solely on equity but equity doesnt define a good bet or bad bet, and betting 30k is retarded.
I'm sure this has been discussed before. I'm pretty certain there was a lengthy thread on it a few years back.
Anyone who thinks it's +EV... yes. Your government is holding a massive, continuous lottery because it likes to give it's citizens money - and thus, losing money repeatedly through such a profiting venture that all gamblers take advantage of.
Yes. Solid thinking. Up next? Casinos love giving away money to seniors, hence why slot machines are so popular.
What a beautiful world we live in.
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Maynard! United States. Mar 31 2012 02:35. Posts 4453
.
Now I really am a busto. Thanks FTP.
Last edit: 31/03/2012 02:35
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traxamillion United States. Mar 31 2012 03:14. Posts 10468
the gov obviously takes half. that doesn't mean that it won't occasionally roll over enough times to be +ev. 99/100 it is -ev. today it was +ev tho
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[vital]Myth United States. Mar 31 2012 04:02. Posts 12159
wtf, am i really the only one puzzled about everybodys insistence on ticket equity, who gives a shit if your $1 ticket has a .70ev or a 1.40ev people.. it doesnt change anything, 1 in 175 million is pragmatically the same as 2 in 175 million... and for that mater even 30k isnt really that significant difference in reality.
Ex-PokerStars Team Pro Online
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qwerty67890 New Zealand. Mar 31 2012 05:14. Posts 14026
you guys take the lottery way too seriously
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LikeASet United States. Mar 31 2012 10:13. Posts 2113
ya seriously, no one is really supposed to believe that he/she is going to win. The ticket is should just be a small purchase so that you have something little to look forward to and for a very brief moment you get to live in your dream fantasy world of being filthy rich right before the lottery numbers get drawn.
Last edit: 31/03/2012 10:16
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blackjacki2 United States. Mar 31 2012 10:15. Posts 2581
On March 30 2012 21:48 RaiNKhAN wrote:
it is never +ev b/c you pay shitload of taxes which negates the prizepool crossing the 0ev marker
has nothing to do with taxes. Even if a $1 lottery price was 10 billion dollar it wouldn't be +EV. Because of the math. But forget about the math. Think about it where do you think the money is coming from if it were to be +EV? the lottory corporation is donating?
On March 30 2012 22:39 capaneo wrote:
has nothing to do with taxes. Even if a $1 lottery price was 10 billion dollar it wouldn't be +EV. Because of the math. But forget about the math. Think about it where do you think the money is coming from if it were to be +EV? the lottory corporation is donating?
well dunno id it's ev+ atm, because it's really a bitch to count, but my point is the ev must exceed 0 after x draws without a binker
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thewh00sel United States. Mar 31 2012 11:03. Posts 2734
So sick that one person won. Not only did he hit the 175.5 mill to one to get the numbers, also hit a 7% or something chance after hitting of NOT splitting with anyone with that many tickets sold. sickest life. Countdown to busto?
A government is the most dangerous threat to man’s rights: it holds a legal monopoly on the use of physical force against legally disarmed victims. - Ayn Rand
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thewh00sel United States. Mar 31 2012 11:15. Posts 2734
Actually the odds of not splitting it were closer to 3%. Here's the quote:
Forbes
If you knew no one else could play, it would make sense to buy a ticket. In fact, you should buy all the numbers. You’d invest $176 million and haul in almost triple that.
Alas, other people have heard about this jackpot. So what are the odds on sharing? In the past decade there have been 13 shared jackpots. Three jackpot winners neglected to claim their prizes; they were from Brooklyn, Queens and an unidentified place in New York State.
History, though, is an imperfect judge of odds. Here’s how to do it with a calculator.
Call the number of tickets sold T. Call that 175.7 million figure X. Use ^ as the sign for exponents (2^3, for example, means 2x2x2). Call the base of natural logarithms e (it’s roughly 2.718).
If you did win, what are the odds that no one else won? It equals (1-1/X)^T. That’s a mess, but a very close approximation is e^(-T/X). Comes to 0.03 on my calculator when I assume that T = 616 million.
Translation: If you do win, there’s only a 3% chance you’ll have the big prize to yourself.
Odds there will be exactly one other winner? Take the 0.03 and multiply by T/X. I get 0.105. So there’s a 10.5% chance that if you win, you will be splitting the pot in two.
Odds for two other winners: take the last number you had, multiply by T/X again and divide by 2. Now you have 0.184.
For three other winners: previous number, multiplied by T/X and divided by 3. Now you’re up to 0.216.
This could go on, but the numbers start to get pretty small. There’s only a 1.7% chance that if you win you’ll be splitting the prize 9 ways.
And daut they posted in forbes online article here saying same thing. So I'm sure millions of people did the same thing. Not that it matters, still a much better bet.
A government is the most dangerous threat to man’s rights: it holds a legal monopoly on the use of physical force against legally disarmed victims. - Ayn Rand
On March 31 2012 03:34 Baalim wrote:
wtf, am i really the only one puzzled about everybodys insistence on ticket equity, who gives a shit if your $1 ticket has a .70ev or a 1.40ev people.. it doesnt change anything, 1 in 175 million is pragmatically the same as 2 in 175 million... and for that mater even 30k isnt really that significant difference in reality.
you are definitely right, it becomes a kelly criterion problem. there are consolation prizes for getting 5 numbers, 4 numbers, 4 numbers+mega number right etc, but on a 30k investment you are going to lose about 29k the vast majority of the time. but still, kelly criterion only advocates betting when it is +EV, and in that case you should probably risk about 1 millionth your net worth. if its -EV you should never bet
NewbSaibot: 18 TIMES THE SPEED OF LIGHT. Because FUCK YOU, Daut
didnt read thread but it seems ppl think its +EV? u guys r dumb
pretty sure even if it were 1 billion w/o taxes would still be -EV due to chopping
Browsing through your hand histories makes me wonder that you might not be aware these games are possibly play money. Have you ever tried to cash out? - Kapol
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TheHuHu3 United States. Mar 31 2012 16:35. Posts 5544
Three people won it... Fuck that. I wouldn't even want my ticket anymore.
On March 31 2012 03:34 Baalim wrote:
wtf, am i really the only one puzzled about everybodys insistence on ticket equity, who gives a shit if your $1 ticket has a .70ev or a 1.40ev people.. it doesnt change anything, 1 in 175 million is pragmatically the same as 2 in 175 million... and for that mater even 30k isnt really that significant difference in reality.
you are definitely right, it becomes a kelly criterion problem. there are consolation prizes for getting 5 numbers, 4 numbers, 4 numbers+mega number right etc, but on a 30k investment you are going to lose about 29k the vast majority of the time. but still, kelly criterion only advocates betting when it is +EV, and in that case you should probably risk about 1 millionth your net worth. if its -EV you should never bet
extremely unlikely even if its EV+ that Kelly Criterion would dictate a 30k bet from them, i have no idea how big the BR has to be, but i has to be many millions.
Also Kelly Criterior is incomplete when we take emotion into the equation, unlike many of you i dont consider idiots the ppl who buy lotto tickets (that dont have supersicion or spend significants amounts of money), because as for little as $1 you have pretty much the same "i might win" sensation that 30k gives you but with none of the drawbacks.
Let me disagree with you and my argument is not about emotion.
I think it is irrational not to bet here even though its -EV. The argument is that you have a limited time to live so even though you are betting as an underdog you still have to do it because you have nothing to loose ($1 or even $1000k) and you have everything to win ($500mil).
Example:
Playing without a goal keeper in football or hockey is VERY -ev. But when there is not much time left on the clock and the team is loosing it would be wrong to keep a man in the goal. Who cares if you lost by one goal or 3 or 10?
Who would care if your net worth is 100k or 99k? You got a limited time living on this planet.
In US everyone is happy as long as all the prices are rising. Unless its crude oil - Marc Faber
!! What's the ket method, what happens when you pick a number between 32 and 56 lol
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qwerty67890 New Zealand. Apr 01 2012 02:26. Posts 14026
On April 01 2012 01:05 Mariuslol wrote:
!! What's the ket method, what happens when you pick a number between 32 and 56 lol
im guessing that its the least likely combination that will result in a split pot, since people use birthdays for their numbers (12 months and 31 days) there will be more people with tickets containing those numbers.
JonnyCosMo United States. Apr 01 2012 08:41. Posts 7292
Cole South says that kelly criterion bankroll requirement for buying one a $1 megamillions yesterday was around $275MM (w/ extremely generous assumptions).
Everyone needs to see that you are king of the castle - PoorUser
unless you are a busto or a cheapo you aren't gonna even care or notice if $5 fell out of your pocket or you got hit w/ an unexpected $5 parking garage cost, or any other number of random occurrences that make you $5 poorer
unless you are crazy you are going to realize if you are $350mil richer
as baal said there are other emotional things to consider like hope.
on the other side of possibly winning is shame, embarrassment, infamy, etc.
also, to consider there is not infinite number of opportunities and opportunities are never identical
for probably like 95% of the population lotto is their only realistic chance at freeroll life money
there are probably plenty of more considerations but jus sayin ev and kelly criterion are not even close to being complete models for a lot of decision making in life.
Exactly, Cosmo's post about Kelly Criterion really doesnt imlly that buying a $1 ticket underolled is a bad decision, it can be a good one, but it does show that the 30k investment was absolutely retarded.
The problem comes when ppl spend a significant amount of money on the lotto, just a couple hours ago i saw on the news that poor people spend 9% of their income in lottery... that is a terrible decision even if its their only chance at being wealthy.
Let me disagree with you and my argument is not about emotion.
I think it is irrational not to bet here even though its -EV. The argument is that you have a limited time to live so even though you are betting as an underdog you still have to do it because you have nothing to loose ($1 or even $1000k) and you have everything to win ($500mil).
Example:
Playing without a goal keeper in football or hockey is VERY -ev. But when there is not much time left on the clock and the team is loosing it would be wrong to keep a man in the goal. Who cares if you lost by one goal or 3 or 10?
Who would care if your net worth is 100k or 99k? You got a limited time living on this planet.
i agree with you, but no, buying lotto tickets for amounts of money with no impact at all in your life is actually a good decision.
Sadly most lotto players spend amounts of money that does affect their lives.
Ex-PokerStars Team Pro Online
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Svenman87 United States. Apr 01 2012 22:02. Posts 4636
On April 01 2012 20:39 Baalim wrote:
Exactly, Cosmo's post about Kelly Criterion really doesnt imlly that buying a $1 ticket underolled is a bad decision, it can be a good one, but it does show that the 30k investment was absolutely retarded.
The problem comes when ppl spend a significant amount of money on the lotto, just a couple hours ago i saw on the news that poor people spend 9% of their income in lottery... that is a terrible decision even if its their only chance at being wealthy.
9% of what I assume is welfare money to begin with. Talk about freerolling!
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blackjacki2 United States. Apr 02 2012 23:09. Posts 2581
WASHINGTON (AP) -- Washington Wizards rookie Chris Singleton says it was worth it to buy $10,000 worth of tickets for last week's Mega Millions lottery, adding it was "either that or blowing it in the clubs."
Canada. Mar 30 2012 15:28. Posts 20070
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