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$640MM Mega Millions Jackpot - Page 3

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traxamillion   United States. Mar 31 2012 00:47. Posts 10468


  On March 30 2012 21:34 capaneo wrote:
anyone who says this is +EV doesnt know math.

edit: or common sense.



clearly +ev tard due to rollover jackpot. PLENTY of dead money in this one.

after tax its like 460 million, odds to win 1/180 million

2:1 brah

only thing is you may have to chop


traxamillion   United States. Mar 31 2012 00:49. Posts 10468

that guy saying there are 490 million tickets in play is completely wrong.

most tickets that contributed to the prize pool HAVE ALREADY BRICKED IN PREVIOUS WEEKS


traxamillion   United States. Mar 31 2012 00:51. Posts 10468


  On March 30 2012 22:39 capaneo wrote:
Show nested quote +



has nothing to do with taxes. Even if a $1 lottery price was 10 billion dollar it wouldn't be +EV. Because of the math. But forget about the math. Think about it where do you think the money is coming from if it were to be +EV? the lottory corporation is donating?


the money is from tickets that were bought in previous drawings and are no longer in play. I hate you bro I can only imagine how fat and ugly / loser you are.


TalentedTom    Canada. Mar 31 2012 00:52. Posts 20070


  On March 30 2012 23:47 traxamillion wrote:
Show nested quote +



clearly +ev tard due to rollover jackpot. PLENTY of dead money in this one.

after tax its like 460 million, odds to win 1/180 million

2:1 brah

only thing is you may have to chop


yeah this, theres a lot of dead money from fish picking bad numbers

Our deepest fear is not that we are inadequate. Our deepest fear is that we are powerful beyond measure. It is our light not our darkness that most frightens us and as we let our own lights shine we unconsciously give other people permision to do the same 

tloapc   Pitcairn. Mar 31 2012 00:53. Posts 2591

lotto is a suckers tax

The probability of someone watching you is proportional to the stupidity of your action. 

traxamillion   United States. Mar 31 2012 00:55. Posts 10468


  On March 30 2012 23:53 tloapc wrote:
lotto is a suckers tax



scratchers are, buying a couple tickets on a huge mega/super jackpot aint shit


tloapc   Pitcairn. Mar 31 2012 00:57. Posts 2591

I bought $7 worth myself
second time to buy some

The probability of someone watching you is proportional to the stupidity of your action. 

Baalim   Mexico. Mar 31 2012 01:04. Posts 34246


  On March 30 2012 23:37 Daut wrote:
Show nested quote +



i feel dumb having bought 15 tickets when it was -EV. you'd think they would actually sit down and work out the math before doing that. i suppose for a professional gambler its a tax writeoff but still wtf


Actually i think equity in lottery isnt that important, its all about the variance, does it really matters if it pays 90% or 110%?.


We are too used to ignore variance/risk aversion in general because we assume we are rolled for the scenario we play, so we focus solely on equity but equity doesnt define a good bet or bad bet, and betting 30k is retarded.

Ex-PokerStars Team Pro Online 

devon06atX   Canada. Mar 31 2012 02:12. Posts 5458

I'm sure this has been discussed before. I'm pretty certain there was a lengthy thread on it a few years back.

Anyone who thinks it's +EV... yes. Your government is holding a massive, continuous lottery because it likes to give it's citizens money - and thus, losing money repeatedly through such a profiting venture that all gamblers take advantage of.

Yes. Solid thinking. Up next? Casinos love giving away money to seniors, hence why slot machines are so popular.

What a beautiful world we live in.


Maynard!   United States. Mar 31 2012 02:35. Posts 4453

.

Now I really am a busto. Thanks FTP.Last edit: 31/03/2012 02:35

traxamillion   United States. Mar 31 2012 03:14. Posts 10468

the gov obviously takes half. that doesn't mean that it won't occasionally roll over enough times to be +ev. 99/100 it is -ev. today it was +ev tho


[vital]Myth    United States. Mar 31 2012 04:02. Posts 12159

http://www.circlemud.org/~jelson/megamillions/

edit: i guess daut beat me to it but it seems to merit reposting given the discussion on this page.

Eh, I can go a few more orbits in life, before taxes blind me out - PoorUserLast edit: 31/03/2012 04:03

traxamillion   United States. Mar 31 2012 04:20. Posts 10468

that already got posted bud


Baalim   Mexico. Mar 31 2012 04:34. Posts 34246

wtf, am i really the only one puzzled about everybodys insistence on ticket equity, who gives a shit if your $1 ticket has a .70ev or a 1.40ev people.. it doesnt change anything, 1 in 175 million is pragmatically the same as 2 in 175 million... and for that mater even 30k isnt really that significant difference in reality.

Ex-PokerStars Team Pro Online 

qwerty67890   New Zealand. Mar 31 2012 05:14. Posts 14026

you guys take the lottery way too seriously


LikeASet   United States. Mar 31 2012 10:13. Posts 2113

ya seriously, no one is really supposed to believe that he/she is going to win. The ticket is should just be a small purchase so that you have something little to look forward to and for a very brief moment you get to live in your dream fantasy world of being filthy rich right before the lottery numbers get drawn.

 Last edit: 31/03/2012 10:16

blackjacki2   United States. Mar 31 2012 10:15. Posts 2581


  On March 30 2012 22:39 capaneo wrote:
Show nested quote +



has nothing to do with taxes. Even if a $1 lottery price was 10 billion dollar it wouldn't be +EV. Because of the math. But forget about the math. Think about it where do you think the money is coming from if it were to be +EV? the lottory corporation is donating?


lol... =[


daysare   Poland. Mar 31 2012 10:51. Posts 670


  On March 30 2012 22:39 capaneo wrote:
has nothing to do with taxes. Even if a $1 lottery price was 10 billion dollar it wouldn't be +EV. Because of the math. But forget about the math. Think about it where do you think the money is coming from if it were to be +EV? the lottory corporation is donating?



losers in the past are donating, making it ev+

i probably got trolled though... :/


daysare   Poland. Mar 31 2012 10:55. Posts 670

well dunno id it's ev+ atm, because it's really a bitch to count, but my point is the ev must exceed 0 after x draws without a binker


thewh00sel    United States. Mar 31 2012 11:03. Posts 2734

So sick that one person won. Not only did he hit the 175.5 mill to one to get the numbers, also hit a 7% or something chance after hitting of NOT splitting with anyone with that many tickets sold. sickest life. Countdown to busto?

A government is the most dangerous threat to man’s rights: it holds a legal monopoly on the use of physical force against legally disarmed victims. - Ayn Rand 

 
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