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$1 river bluff decision vs weak opponent

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InsideMan   United Kingdom. Mar 19 2012 10:10. Posts 159

Villain is a weak opponent. He plays 31/10/1 over 118 hands with a 3-bet of 4.

Do you like bet/call on the turn with these stack sizes? I don't have much of a read on him that he is calling worse than a K on the flop, so on this turn I may not have enough fold equity to barrel, despite the strong draw.

When villain just calls the turn it's tough to put him on any decent made hand given how drawy the board was, but at the same time it feels as though villain is capable of calling with just a K on the river, getting 3-1.
On the flipside, our bluff only needs to work 33% of the time and we have a good table image and rep strong hands well.

Submitted by : InsideMan

$1 PL Hi 6 max - Omaha Hi - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4:

SB: $114.00
BB: $327.89
UTG: $100.00
Hero MP : $175.48
CO: $136.23
BTN: $136.90

SB posts SB $1.00, BB posts BB $1.00

Pre Flop: pot: $2.00 Hero hasAsTd8c 9s

UTG raises to $2.00, Hero raises to $8.00, CO calls $8.00, fold, fold, fold, UTG calls $6.00

Flop: $26.00, 3 players2hKd 6s
UTG checks, Hero bets $16.00, CO calls $16.00, fold

Turn: $58.00, 2 players Js
Hero bets $45.00, CO calls $45.00

River: $148.00, 2 players 2c

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There is no such thing as certainty in life, only opportunity.  

MiPwnYa    Brasil. Mar 20 2012 20:29. Posts 5227

id shove and expect him to fold quite often
even if he calls you with a naked K youre gonna have a hand way too often for him to call profitably

def pot/call turn if he calls that light on flops

InsideMan   United Kingdom. Mar 21 2012 02:29. Posts 159

@ MiPwnYa

Not sure if you misread my post, I said I don't think he's calling worse than a K on the flop. Do you still like pot/call turn?

There is no such thing as certainty in life, only opportunity.  

Twisted    Netherlands. Mar 21 2012 06:31. Posts 10422

Most people call once with a K and he might have picked up an OESD to go along with it but most weak players will just fold to a second barrel with a one-pair-hand.

I actually prefer a bet of like $24 (maybe something like $34 to have more FE on the turn) on the turn so you have more fold equity on the river. I don't expect this guy to shove a lot of turns with hands like AKQT.

InsideMan   United Kingdom. Mar 21 2012 08:54. Posts 159

@ Twisted

Yea, I've been thinking about that line too. In the heat of the moment I decided to bet large and call, because I didn't think I would have to play a lot of rivers. Looking back, it would have been nicer to not give villain such good odds on a river call.

There is no such thing as certainty in life, only opportunity.  


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