2c 2d by thewh00sel

5/10 NLHE Full 9 handed game. Players of importance are:

UTG: Hero: 2500 TAG image, haven't done too much but been playing with both players for a couple hours
BTN: Villain 1: 2500 Is a little splashy but hasn't been spewing a ton, usually showing down the winner, bought in for 1k
BB: Villain 2: 2000 is eating food and is tight, his RR = big hand is my read on him

Hero raises to 40 with
BTN calls 40
BB reraises to 160
Hero calls 120
BTN calls 120

Flop (485)


BB bets 500
Hero calls 500
BTN calls 500

Turn (1985)


BB bets all-in 1340
Hero ?

The button calls very nonchalantly on the flop. He is trying to order food from the waiter but after the flop comes down and he calls, he sends the waiter away until after the hand. It feels like a big hand after he quick-calls this over pot-sized flop bet, but we are getting laid a pretty good price and we have the BB beat like 100% of the time, now what?

Wtf call?

Yea I dont see how you cant stack off here, surely BU has at least 9Ts,QJs in his range ? Those are 6 combos vs the 6 of oversets and with the odds you are getting no way you can fold imo.

I don't like the initial pf raise, but whatever.

Button can easily have 78o, QJo, J8s, and sometimes some gutshots making this a pretty easy shove.

I guess I wasn't very clear. Assume we have a read/tell that button always has 99/TT or 9T based on how he calls the flop.

So our pot odds right now, if we assume the button is always calling our shove, is 1985+1340+1840= 5165 in the pot, 1840 to call(shove) so 2.8:1 (35.6% equity we'd need to call) and if he has 9Ts,99,TT and BB has QQ+ our equity is:

Board: 2h 9s Td 4c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 23.214% 23.21% 00.00% 1404 0.00 { 2c2d }
Hand 1: 72.024% 72.02% 00.00% 4356 0.00 { TT-99, T9s }
Hand 2: 04.762% 04.76% 00.00% 288 0.00 { QQ+ }

So not nearly enough and a clear fold. Although if we expand it to 9To as well...


Board: 2h 9s Td 4c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 52.381% 52.38% 00.00% 5940 0.00 { 2c2d }
Hand 1: 42.857% 42.86% 00.00% 4860 0.00 { TT-99, T9s, T9o }
Hand 2: 04.762% 04.76% 00.00% 540 0.00 { QQ+ }

Then it's a clear call. I think the reality is a lot less T9o's so I gave him 3 out of the 12 possible combinations of T9o's which is:

Board: 2h 9s Td 4c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 40.260% 40.26% 00.00% 3348 0.00 { 2c2d }
Hand 1: 54.978% 54.98% 00.00% 4572 0.00 { TT-99, T9s, Th9c, Ts9c, Ts9d }
Hand 2: 04.762% 04.76% 00.00% 396 0.00 { QQ+ }

Which is about the right price to call. In the heat of the moment I decided to go with my read and just fold. I think it's closer than you guys think, but I do think I made a mistake versus his range.

I think that even if we put button on super made hands only the fact that he shows up w T9 is reason enough to ship it in...and we gotta have a damn good reason to assume he never has T9 here.

Hell all that dead money in the pot makes this an "easy" stack off.

On February 20 2012 13:09 thewh00sel wrote: so 2.8:1 (35.6% equity we'd need to call)

Might want to check this.

On February 20 2012 13:58 NMcNasty wrote: Show nested quote + On February 20 2012 13:09 thewh00sel wrote: so 2.8:1 (35.6% equity we'd need to call) Might want to check this.

Oh that's right I forgot I found out recently that I think I've been doing pot odds wrong for the past 5 years (lol i know but all my friends do it the same way I do it and 2 different people who I respect told me that I was doing it wrong). I heard someone explaining it and got confused, don't flame me, but are you supposed to factor in the money that you are about to call in the size of the pot as well? i.e pot is 3, player bets 1 Do you do 3+1/1 or 3+1+1/1? I was certain that I knew how to do this and that in that example your pot odds would be 4:1 but people told me recently it was 5:1; simple skill but have become less confident recently. A little ashamed to admit it but i'd like clear answers on that point.

As far as the % for the odds my bad i did 1/2.8 instead of 1/3.8. So i need 26.3%. Oh well. If it's the other way for pot odds then I am actually getting 3.8 to 1 instead of 2.8 so it makes a big difference. So someone just give me a quick noob breakdown because I've found arguments for both ways of doing it online and I need the correct way for future application. Don't want to compound my mistake more.

It's 2.8:1 which is roughly 26.5%, example: pot is 2, player bets 2 so you are getting 2:1(pot4/2 we have to call) which is the same as 66.666...:33.3333.... or 33%. Someone else will come along and explain it better though if you didn't get it .

that's good news, I was doing it that way and someone told me you have to include the money you are about to put in as part of the pot and they are a good player so I thought there was something wrong with the way I was doing it.

Yeah that's it. A good rule of thumb is that if opponent bets less than pot your equity needed will always be less than 33.3%.

This is the easiest call I've ever seen in my life.

Whoosel why are you writing essays and advanced math here. Seriously....

On February 20 2012 14:55 thewh00sel wrote: that's good news, I was doing it that way and someone told me you have to include the money you are about to put in as part of the pot and they are a good player so I thought there was something wrong with the way I was doing it.

did you mix up pot odds and reverse implied odds?

On February 20 2012 16:20 MezmerizePLZ wrote: This is the easiest call I've ever seen in my life.

I feel hypocritical if I berate you for folding here. :-p I call here thou

your reads are bad many players are going to be as interested in jq getting reasonable odds as a set. You said yourself the button is splashy so is he ever folding jq on the button?

Also think he should be shoving made hands as the 3rd man in on a 910 board?

Like I said I felt like it was a mistake versus his range after further evaluation. Results: I folded and got lucky and ran into the part of his range that beat me, but just because I did, I didn't feel like it was the right play afterwards, which caused me to make the thread. Thanks for the berating I doubt I'll fold again in a similar spot after looking at the math more.

On February 20 2012 16:26 wobbly_au wrote: Whoosel why are you writing essays and advanced math here. Seriously....

not sure why you call pre flop if you plan on folding anywhere in the hand when you flop a set...

dont like the raise pre, and the call of the 3bet is iffy. echoing the sentiments in this thread, this is never a fold

to the ppl who dislike the pfr - are you folding 22-55 utg? .

On February 20 2012 23:27 Daut wrote: dont like the raise pre, and the call of the 3bet is iffy. echoing the sentiments in this thread, this is never a fold

agree the raise pre is not standard but thought I had a pretty good feel for the table and a few people were already about to muck before I acted so I thought I can get away with it here.

On February 20 2012 22:57 Fayth wrote: not sure why you call pre flop if you plan on folding anywhere in the hand when you flop a set...

I wasn't planning on folding but when button calls an over pot-sized bet on the flop after someone else calls too and is obviously strong I think you can change your plan don't you?

On February 21 2012 00:13 chrusher97 wrote: to the ppl who dislike the pfr - are you folding 22-55 utg? .

obviously if their not winners they're mucking.

On February 20 2012 14:55 thewh00sel wrote: that's good news, I was doing it that way and someone told me you have to include the money you are about to put in as part of the pot and they are a good player so I thought there was something wrong with the way I was doing it.

??
with the example :
pot 2 vilain bet 2 + your 2 = 6
2/6 =0.33%

You spend 2 to win 6 , so yes , you have to include the money you are about to put as part of the final pot ...

yes, but you spend 2 to win 4

I don't like commenting too much on preflop play when stacks are deeper in live tables with donks. I personally think your preflop is fine / super standard for your average live table.

On February 20 2012 22:57 Fayth wrote: not sure why you call pre flop if you plan on folding anywhere in the hand when you flop a set...

And this is just silly. So no.

The trolling was a little bad but the point is to get your hand critizied when you post it no?

On February 21 2012 10:18 JonnyCosMo wrote: I don't like commenting too much on preflop play when stacks are deeper in live tables with donks. I personally think your preflop is fine / super standard for your average live table. Show nested quote + On February 20 2012 22:57 Fayth wrote: not sure why you call pre flop if you plan on folding anywhere in the hand when you flop a set... And this is just silly. So no.

fayth is absolutely right.

if you are calling a reraise for this much with a hand like 22 if you flop a set you are treating it like the nuts. if you start folding when you flop a set then you are not winning/fighting for this pot nearly often enough to be playing the hand

calling preflop has no other aim than to flop a set. this is very different than something like calling a 3bet with QJs, flopping top pair and then deciding to fold the turn. 22 only has equity when flopping a set, so you are folding 7.5/8.5 already. you start giving up those pots too and you are just proving the hand is completely unplayable to begin with

On February 23 2012 13:40 Daut wrote: Show nested quote + On February 21 2012 10:18 JonnyCosMo wrote: I don't like commenting too much on preflop play when stacks are deeper in live tables with donks. I personally think your preflop is fine / super standard for your average live table.   On February 20 2012 22:57 Fayth wrote: not sure why you call pre flop if you plan on folding anywhere in the hand when you flop a set... And this is just silly. So no. fayth is absolutely right. if you are calling a reraise for this much with a hand like 22 if you flop a set you are treating it like the nuts. if you start folding when you flop a set then you are not winning/fighting for this pot nearly often enough to be playing the hand calling preflop has no other aim than to flop a set. this is very different than something like calling a 3bet with QJs, flopping top pair and then deciding to fold the turn. 22 only has equity when flopping a set, so you are folding 7.5/8.5 already. you start giving up those pots too and you are just proving the hand is completely unplayable to begin with

There are an unreal amount of players that play live that fit in this super tight / face-up mold and have really defined 3betting range out of position (to the point that it's usually only QQ, KK, AA -- AK is a "drawing hand!!!"). Assume some 60 year old passive donk who's played 5 hands in limped pots for the past 2 hours decides to 3bet you from the blinds in this spot, and you flop AQ2r w 22, he checks, you bet, and he minraises. Think it's a good idea to send 200bbs blazing because some rule in your head saying 'well i have a set, so never fold ever'? If nitty old men are coolering you in these spots you're doing something very wrong. Kinda feels like live PLO in a way, where you just auto assume people have some AAXX hand when they 3bet. If you're paying attention enough to how the game is playing I feel you can definitely make these kind of reads. Obv don't be playing w the thought that you need to be cautious when you flop a set or w/e caz folding is so rarely going to be correct and usually when it's close you should be putting it in anyways because you have a set and sets are good! Just think it's dumb to say that you can never fold once you flop a set because that's not true.

This hand is definitely NOT one of those spots that I describe thou, over callers range can't be so easily defined, so I refuse to fold.

youre missing the point.

when you play a hand for the sole purpose of flopping a set in an extremely marginal spot to begin with and you get the best board possible and find you want to fold a set, you prove that the original call is bad.

you have absolutely no other way of winning the pot besides flopping a set here. you have no showdown value, you cannot bluff profitably here and you cant flop good draws. AND THE BOARD IS SAFE AS FUCK. thats what makes this situation different from other "i flopped a set and folded" spots.

what fayth is saying is you cant play the hand preflop if you plan on not playing it postflop. im not saying you cant ever fold a set postflop because i obviously dont think that, ive done it plenty of times. but if i ever call for the sole purpose of flopping a set (no showdown value, no bluffing possibilities, no draw flopping possibilities) then i am not going to be folding when i do flop that set or my original play was bad

I think you are forgetting how narrow of a range, sometimes individual hands, you can put someone on in live poker. The guy who quickly overcalled more than pot in a 3b pot (extremely uncommon) while looking away and pretending to have nothing changes everything...And how can the initial call be marginal if you know for a fact that you are stacking someone for 2k when you hit, barring the abnormal situation that happened in this hand. it's a cut and dry +ev situation esp when he 3bets so small.

*again I think I was wrong to fold regardless of the guy having a set behind me but I just can't believe that no one would fold it when you have this strong read of strength on the guy behind you.

its obviously a bit more complicated than this, but you are losing 120 ~88% and then the 12% you hit, you arent stacking him 100% of the time. i would estimate 1% you win 4650, 7% you win 1500 (sometimes dont get it all, sometimes you do), 4% you lose 1500 (sometimes you fold or board runs out bad)

so basically -120*88+4650+3*1500=-10560+9150=-1410/100=-14 bucks by calling. again its not exact science, but you really are overestimating how much you win and how often you win when you do hit a set. you are not 100% to win when you get it in and you are not 100% to get it all when you are way ahead.

of course there are exceptions to rules and sets are often foldable in spots where youd never imagine doing so otherwise, but ffs just because a guy stops talking and looks away when he calls doesnt mean he has the nuts. a live tell of extreme strength could also be a superstition he has about trying to hit when he has a draw. trying to make some exact read based on a single action live tell is pretty ludicrous imo

On February 23 2012 14:54 Daut wrote: im not saying you cant ever fold a set postflop because i obviously dont think that, ive done it plenty of times. but if i ever call for the sole purpose of flopping a set (no showdown value, no bluffing possibilities, no draw flopping possibilities) then i am not going to be folding when i do flop that set or my original play was bad

How is justifying your preflop call a consideration when deciding whether to call or fold later in the hand?

I mean I get your point and maybe it's just your wording that's getting to me but there are certainly situations (obv a very limited number) where you can fold a set of deuces even when making that set. Like are you going to put in 20 BB pf w/ 22 and then on 259 put in another 200 BB when 2 nits raise and reraise in front of you?

thewh00sel,

When you have a read like you did you are the only one who is going to know it and you'll never be able to truly convince anyone else of it. In fact for some reason we are all going to want to not believe you and call you a nit but sometimes in poker you just know damn right.

nice fold sir

On February 23 2012 21:02 Smuft wrote: Show nested quote + On February 23 2012 14:54 Daut wrote: im not saying you cant ever fold a set postflop because i obviously dont think that, ive done it plenty of times. but if i ever call for the sole purpose of flopping a set (no showdown value, no bluffing possibilities, no draw flopping possibilities) then i am not going to be folding when i do flop that set or my original play was bad How is justifying your preflop call a consideration when deciding whether to call or fold later in the hand? I mean I get your point and maybe it's just your wording that's getting to me but there are certainly situations (obv a very limited number) where you can fold a set of deuces even when making that set. Like are you going to put in 20 BB pf w/ 22 and then on 259 put in another 200 BB when 2 nits raise and reraise in front of you?

thats definitely an example of a horrible preflop call. obviously you should never knowingly make a -ev play, but the point im mainly trying to get across is that when you are putting in 8-10% of your stack for the sole purpose of setmining (little bluffing, semibluffing or showdown value postflop) and you are going to doubt yourself when you do flop a set on some boards, then you shouldnt even be playing the hand to begin with.

hes acting like this is a 1 in a million spot. what happens if the board is AQ2 or KQ2 or KJ2? what hands are putting in 200bb vs him in those spots? hes not going to feel great about how hes doing against a range of hands willing to go broke on all sorts of boards, but overall he should be in good shape and willing to go with the hand. this board is not even close to as scary as plenty of other boards where he could have a set.

ive probably folded more sets than just about anybody and its usually in spots where its a 3-4 way single raised pot and lots of action starts going in when you have bottom set (or on the river vs someone showing an unreal amount of strength in a spot he can only have a monster). but in spots like that the stack to pot ratio (97:12) is higher than in a reraised pot 200bb (190:40) deep and you are only putting in 3% of your stack preflop (lots of implied odds so you can make folds and still be profitable) instead of 8-10% (not very many implied odds compared to how much you are calling so you need to be getting the money in every time to try to get a return on your investment)

again, if my opponent turns his cards face up and im beat im going to throw my hand away, not my money. but dont put yourself in those spots to begin with. regardless, this is not one of those spots where its -ev to be putting money in postflop with your set after making a bad call.

On February 23 2012 21:05 Smuft wrote: thewh00sel, When you have a read like you did you are the only one who is going to know it and you'll never be able to truly convince anyone else of it. In fact for some reason we are all going to want to not believe you and call you a nit but sometimes in poker you just know damn right. nice fold sir

QFT

reminds me of this: http://www.liquidpoker.net/blog/viewblog.php?id=989678

I could never create a thread about that hand^^ without getting completely bashed, but I know I was absolutely right to do what I did and thats just something live poker allows you to do

BTN can have T9 too probably

either way I don't like the call pre flop

post flop might be close with certain reads but even then I generally just lose all my money on set over set and expect to get paid too when it's the other way around

On February 23 2012 21:05 Smuft wrote: thewh00sel, When you have a read like you did you are the only one who is going to know it and you'll never be able to truly convince anyone else of it. In fact for some reason we are all going to want to not believe you and call you a nit but sometimes in poker you just know damn right. nice fold sir

This. There is just no way to describe all the game flow and player reads that goes into certain live spots. You alone will know the truth. Just trust your reads.

And the rest of you guys better be joking about criticizing his preflop call. Why are we nit picking over such a w/e marginal preflop spot in a soft live game? Flatting pre is definitely no worse than break even to slightly bad. If we factor some of the overall image building that goes along with it: that your not going to be giving up pots so easily, that you're not a nit fag waiting for only premiums, encouraging others to be more willing to call 3bets -- it's not even close to being a fold. I swear some of you have to be trolling here...

On February 20 2012 18:15 Rekrul wrote: Show nested quote + On February 20 2012 16:20 MezmerizePLZ wrote: This is the easiest call I've ever seen in my life.

What baffles me is how this thread got 2 pages of indepth responses for a spot that's pretty straight forward yet this: http://www.liquidpoker.net/poker-foru...10_$20_Top_Set_vs_Worst_Turn_Eva.html gets nothing.

both hands are trivial and should be posted in medium stakes Poker.
Yes I've played 10/20€ live.

On February 28 2012 13:21 waga wrote: both hands are trivial and should be posted in medium stakes Poker. Yes I've played 10/20€ live.

On March 01 2012 08:55 RaSZi wrote: I fucking hate NLHE

I wonder why

http://www.pokertableratings.com/stars-player-search/RaSZi

User was temp-banned for this post.

On February 28 2012 20:25 player999 wrote: Show nested quote + On February 28 2012 13:21 waga wrote: both hands are trivial and should be posted in medium stakes Poker. Yes I've played 10/20€ live.

LOL we got a winner here.

Daut and Fayth are right, if this is a fold, then the preflop call is just terrible

On March 18 2012 21:38 Baalim wrote: Daut and Fayth are right, if this is a fold, then the preflop call is just terrible

not really, b/c we are folding to the overcaller not the original 3bettor. altho folding here is STILL terrible.

On March 20 2012 04:04 n0rthf4ce wrote: Show nested quote + On March 18 2012 21:38 Baalim wrote: Daut and Fayth are right, if this is a fold, then the preflop call is just terrible not really, b/c we are folding to the overcaller not the original 3bettor. altho folding here is STILL terrible.

ye exactly.