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Variance runs amok
  beethreekay, Oct 25 2007

I've had some very swingy sessions both live and online, as variance has kicked in in a big way. My last live session was particularly crazy, with me going down big and getting it all back plus profit by going on a 3 buy-in upswing (~€900) in less than an hour (about 25-30 hands max). It was kinda my own doing though. I had decided to be a degenerate and forgo a planned online session and instead went to the casino to win rent money, which was due the next day. About three hours in, I was getting a bit frustrated due to running breakeven all night, so I decided it was time for some GAMBOL. I shoved into a calling station luckbox with QhTh on the turn on a board of Jh 3h 8s Td, who turned up with a filled gutshot (97o), and I missed the river for a vaguely €850 pot. This tilted me a little, and my VPIP% probably went from about 14 to 47 for the next hour or so, as I kept trying to get into pots to use my mad post-flop skillz to get some money back. I picked up Qh9h on the button, and flopped 999, but stupidly bet out the flop and got folds all round, which tilted me even more. I calmed down when I won a buy-in w/ KK vs. AQ all-in on a Q hi rainbow flop, and then picked up QQ UTG on the last hand of the night, just as the casino was closing. I raised pot and got six callers. Just as I was contemplating how the hell one is supposed to play Queens OOP in a 7-way pot, I stumbled upon the solution: flop top set. And so I did, and the board came Qd5c6c. I bet out about 2/3 pot and got called by a solid if overly loose player (a dealer on his night off). It was folded to the casino owner on the button, who's a bit of a nit, and he pumped it to €150. I shoved for ~€500, and the solid player shoved over the top of me. The owner thought about it for a while, then mucked AQ face up, and the solid player turned over Ac8c for the nut flush draw. 6s on the turn, ship me my rent money!

My online play has been very swingy too, with me spending the last 11 days or so getting up BIG and almost to the $1000 threshold for 50NL, and then going on a near 10 buy-in downswing to bring me back to pretty where I was. I also took a 1 buy-in shot at 50NL, but got my AA cracked by KQo AIPF, flop KQQ. Stats below, I couldn't be bothered to post hands right now:





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Heater at just the right time
  beethreekay, Oct 14 2007



The best way to get over tilt is to go on a nice heater, which I have been for the past week or so. I didn't get my Aces cracked once during this 6k run, and got paid off quite a bit. 25NL is so easy when you're getting big pairs and sets at the right time and either catch an over-aggro donkey or valuebet a station to death.

Some hands of note:

http://www.liquidpoker.net/h/294355 - I just felt like thanking this guy for his generous donation to my bankroll

http://www.liquidpoker.net/h/294357 - A thin value bet gone bad. I think calling this river shove is spewy in general

http://www.liquidpoker.net/h/294359 - I had such a good read on this guy, who pretty much played his hands backwards (betting with nothing, slowplaying when he had it). I really wanted to call this guy down with A hi for the HOTW thread, but the stupid river got in the way. Oh well...

There are others, but I can't remember them at the moment. I am now well over halfway through 25NL, and I hope to move up to 50NL pretty soon (when I reach $1000).



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Comments (9)


I am the set destroyer
  beethreekay, Oct 10 2007

Live game tonight (1/3PL):

Me: 99
Villain: AA
Flop: A93
Turn: blank
River: 9

Me: KK
Same Villain: 55
Flop: K65
Turn: K

(Not a set, but trips, so similar)
Me: AA
Same Villain: T8
Flop: Q88
Turn: blank (I start to get my coat)
River: A

Me: JdTd
Different Villain: 22
Flop: Qd3d2d
Turn: blank
River: blank

Sets are so overrated. Ship it.



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Standard
  beethreekay, Oct 09 2007



I hate poker.

On the upside, every 25NL reg probably has me buddlylisted as a tilty spewtard, so at least my metagame will be good for a while.



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Grinding it out
  beethreekay, Oct 07 2007

I haven't played all that much over the last week or so, and I ran pretty bad when I did (I tilted off a buy-in or two as well, as you do):



25NL is so soft that even running bad, I can make money here. I can't think of many hands of note to post up, so I won't bother.

I still have a ton of leaks in my game I need to work on, such as being more aggressive on later streets, not making stupid "hero calls", overvaluing QQ+, and general tilt issues.

Playing a good amount in my super-soft live game too, and making a nice profit. Just finished a session there where I made the equivalent of about two-thirds of my online roll in one night.



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Settling in to 25NL
  beethreekay, Sep 30 2007

After browsing the FPP store, and realising some of the baller stuff that can be obtained there, I was inspired to play a lot, and so played about 8 hours (or 3K hands 4-tabling) out of the last 24. Went pretty well, too:



There's about three separate sessions here, and I'm happy with how I played in two of them. I ran pretty good, and sucked out on people slowplaying hands on more than one occasion.

Some hands of note:

http://www.liquidpoker.net/h/284502 - I suck out good, although villain going broke with QQ in a re-raised pot on this board is pretty horrendous

http://www.liquidpoker.net/h/284504 - pair the board ONE TIME!

http://www.liquidpoker.net/h/284508 - lol, what a gift

http://www.liquidpoker.net/h/284511 - if you're going to hit a 2-outer, at least do it well and hit both of them!

http://www.liquidpoker.net/h/284513 - Villain was supper-aggro, but this is still disgusting on my part

http://www.liquidpoker.net/h/284515 - Hero call

http://www.liquidpoker.net/h/284519 - I really need to learn to fold overpairs

http://www.liquidpoker.net/h/284527 - Slowplayed AA pwned by 23

http://www.liquidpoker.net/h/284529 - Bet-bet-bet is the only way to play quads

I also played the $11 deep stack tournament, but went out early to set over set.



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Moving on up
  beethreekay, Sep 29 2007



Got my bankroll up to $500, so I've moved back up to 25NL and had my first session there, and even though it was a breakeven session, I'm pretty confident I can get back in my groove and do well here again.

I did the 10NL hands first, and I felt I didn't play well, but I ran good. It was appropriate that a win with QQ vs AA took me over the $500 mark.

The interesting hands:

http://www.liquidpoker.net/h/283572 - I was going to muck the turn, but decided that he could have a low pair (probably 66), and that my overcards were outs. Difficult call on the river, though

http://www.liquidpoker.net/h/283577 - Cooler

http://www.liquidpoker.net/h/283580 - I catch a slowplayed AA again

http://www.liquidpoker.net/h/283583 - The villain in question was also Irish, and his question "an bhfuil dha $*banrion o ri agat" is Irish for "do you have two queens or kings?", so from there it was easy to put him on a J. Difficult to have called otherwise

http://www.liquidpoker.net/h/283582 - And goodbye 10NL

I played better in the 25NL session, but ran a little bad, and lost 2BIs to bad play. But I think I can be quite profitable here.

The hands of note:

http://www.liquidpoker.net/h/283590 - Retarded play #1. One of my big leaks is that I always think people are playing back at me, and never have the goods. I put him on 88-99 or air, and got punished for my stupidity on the turn

http://www.liquidpoker.net/h/283594 - Retarded play #2. This is probably one of the stupidest things I've ever done in poker. I put him on a draw.

http://www.liquidpoker.net/h/283592 - Suckout #1

http://www.liquidpoker.net/h/283593 - Suckout #2

If I can knock out the occasional brain farts, I shouldn't have too much trouble winning here.




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Almost there
  beethreekay, Sep 28 2007



This session got my online roll up to $470, so I'm really close to moving back to 25NL. I feel I've adjusted properly to the game conditions at 10NL, and I find I don't really have that many tough decisions (except PF, where I feel I might be giving people too much respect and laying down biggish hands like JJ to people overplaying AK or worse Aces).

I felt this session was solid enough, although I'm not thrilled with how I played (giving up a stack too easily on at least two occasions).

Here are some of the important hands:

Winners
-------

http://www.liquidpoker.net/h/283040 - I got berated in the chat box for chasing this, but I don't think I played it all that bad. The PF call is because we were both deep enough, I was getting almost 4-1 on the flop, I picked up the gutshot draw on the turn meaning I was 3-1 to win getting 2-1 odds with the necessary implied odds given how little he had left behind, and I shoved the river because he could easily have checked behind given how the obvious draw hit

http://www.liquidpoker.net/h/283053 - Donation #1

http://www.liquidpoker.net/h/283062 - Donation #2, although I don't think I should be playing KK this fast on this board

Losers
------

http://www.liquidpoker.net/h/283051 - Kinda spewy on my part. In retrospect, the check-minraise is always a monster at microstakes

http://www.liquidpoker.net/h/283058 - I felt KJ & KT were in his range, but probably not a +EV push. I really struggle to fold top pair in blind vs. blind situations, which I think is a big leak on my part

http://www.liquidpoker.net/h/283060 - Standard or spew?

Comments on all hands very much welcome.



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Variance is a cruel mistress
  beethreekay, Sep 26 2007

Played live today at my local casino for the first time in a few weeks (1-3 PL is the main game they spread), and had one of my worst runs ever. I had AA cracked three times and KK beaten twice.

First hand I sit down, I pick up KK in MP and raise to 20 over a few limpers. SB pushes for 50 and I call. He shows A4o. Ace on the flop.

A few hours later, with me around breakeven for the night, I pick up AA on the button and raise to 15. 3 callers. Flop comes T95 all hearts. I don't have the Ah. Checked to me, I bet 50, SB c/r all-in for about 120. I fold, and he flashes Kh2h. Not sure about betting this flop. Check behind maybe, but does that mean we're pretty much surrendering the pot?

Not too long after, I pick up AA again, and raise to 15. 3 callers again. Flop comes J95 rainbow. Station UTG bets 60, I raise to 200, he calls AI for about 160 total. He turns over AJ and rivers a J. This one sent me on big-time tilt, as I had been targeting this guy specifically, c-betting him a lot, even though I knew he would call me down light, just to set up a value extraction like this. A whole night's work gone to a 2-outer.

After sitting out of the game for a while to calm down, I reload and pick up KK pretty quickly in the CO. Tight player UTG raises to 10, folded to me, and I 3-bet to 35. He calls. Flop comes A33, 2 diamonds. He checks, I bet 45, he c/r AI for 80. I'm getting about 6-1, but I still think calling here was wrong since I'm a 9-1 dog if he has an Ace. I do call, though, and he flips over Ac7c. Turn is another diamond, giving me flush outs, but the river bricks. Should I have even bothered to c-bet this flop, given how short he is. Is checking behind better and folding to a bet? (although, as it happened, I still call or bet the turn when I pick up the nut flush draw)

Finally, the night is capped off when I pick up AA in LP. I raise to 20 over limpers, and get two callers (guy who just cracked my Kings and station from earlier). Flop comes T75 rainbow. Tight player bets 25, station calls, and I raise to 100. Tight player calls. Turn is a blank, he checks and I put him in for about 140. He thinks for a while, then says, "I think you have AK" and calls, showing QhTh. River is a T, gg me.

Overall, I finished down about €800, which is quite bad for me since I was underrolled enough for live games like this already (I had about 10BI before tonight). I know it's bad BR management, but this is the smallest game offered in my city and the game is so soft that it's almost impossible to resist. I am now left with the choice of shortstacking at this game or giving up live play completely and concentrating entirely on online until I've built enough of a roll that I can cash out to use live.

Speaking of online, I had a pretty good session last night, getting back most of what I'd dropped in the previous session:



I'm quite happy with my play from this session. I didn't make too many stupid mistakes (except a one or two bad decisions with big pairs PF), and I felt I brought my B+ game, if not quite my A game. I also ran good, which helps too.

Some of the highlights:

http://www.liquidpoker.net/h/281646 - Probably the first time the bet/3-bet line has actually worked for me

http://www.liquidpoker.net/h/281647 - This is how you play quads

http://www.liquidpoker.net/h/281648 - Sucking out on the slowplayer

If I can keep this up, I'm confident I can be back at 25NL within a week and back on the road to poker success...if only variance behaves itself...



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Wow I suck
  beethreekay, Sep 25 2007



How is it even possible to drop this much at 10NL?

Here are some of the suckouts:

http://www.liquidpoker.net/h/280518
http://www.liquidpoker.net/h/280521
http://www.liquidpoker.net/h/280523
http://www.liquidpoker.net/h/280526
http://www.liquidpoker.net/h/280528

I also ran KK into AA (and every other KK was greeted by an Ace on the flop), and JJ into higher overpairs from shortstacks four times. I am quite disappointed with this session, though, as there was a lot of spew on my part (calling people down light and trying to push people off hands, which I know you shouldn't do at this level). I didn't adjust properly to the looser play at this level, and tried too much PF stealing with garbage. All in all, a pretty bad day.



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