feed from marshall28 blog 2008-07-08T15:49:32+01:00 fc 1.7.2 1970-01-01T00:00:00+01:00 1970-01-01T00:00:00+01:00 1970-01-01T00:00:00+01:00 http://marshall28.liquidpoker.net marshall28

Entry #2 Okay so I spent a lot of time last night thinking about and arguing with my roommate over one of the hands I posted and analyzed the other day. Here is another look at it: [Hand=322592] Basically, I was arguing that I could know that villain had absolute air, or a marginal made hand that he had turned into a bluff on the river. My roommate claimed that I couldn’t. So as I was thinking about why it was I was so sure, something hit me that I didn’t even recognize in the moment, and didn’t address in the analysis. I had picked up a timing tell. So I thought that for my second entry I’d talk a bit about timing tells. If you already have a decent understanding of timing tells, there probably isn’t anything you can take away from this, so don’t waste your time, but if you are really in the dark about it, this might help you to realize some things you haven’t noticed before. What I’m going to try to describe has been labeled by a lot of players as something that can’t be explained, Doyle even considers it might be ESP in Super System. However, I really don’t think there is anything that can’t be explained, and if it can’t, I want to understand it so I can try to explain it, so that’s what I’ll be attempting here. So if we go back to this hand where I’m holding JTs, the flop play is pretty inconsequential, except for the fact that a hand I played versus this opponent about 5 minutes earlier is also what helped to determine my decisions. The previous hand was as follows: [Hand=325346] So as you see, the flop was almost identical here as to the second hand we played. This is why I knew that he would be check raising me light on the flop, and subsequently, why I didn’t bet the flop w/ JTs. I was sure of the fact that he knew that I knew he was going to check raise me light. So now that he has bet the turn and I picked up top pair, I make what should appear to him to be a delayed continuation bet. What this should do is effectively polarize my range in his mind. What I mean by this is that he shouldn’t expect that I think he will call me here with worse than a T, and because I checked the flop, he can’t ever think I’m holding a pair bigger than 9s, or any 9, as he knows I would bet those on the flop, and I most definitely would since I know he has shown he is willing to stack off to me with second pair. So when my range is polarized, it means that I’m representing only a monster hand or a bluff. This is a really important concept to keep in mind when you are running a bluff, to always make sure you understand what you are representing, and how your opponent is going to perceive your play. So I assumed that he would realize my range is polarized at this point, so his call didn’t really catch me off guard. However, I did expect him to check every river to me, since if he realizes my range is polarized, he would have to know that I am either going to bluff the river if I have air, or bet if I have a monster, which makes it correct for him to call the turn with hands like 44/55/77/88. Although, on the river is where my roommate and I started to disagree. Basically, my roommate asked me one question. What hand could villain have gotten to the river in order to bluff? I couldn’t possibly come up with an answer to this question, because it obviously doesn’t make sense that he would turn a marginal made hand into a bluff in this instance. There is no way I can put him on any hand that he calls the turn to bluff the river, after all, this river card is quite possibly the worst card in the deck to attempt to bluff. So my roommate is claiming that villain can have a hand here like a set of 2s or a set of 6s. His argument basically is that on the flop, villain went to checkraise his set, but didn’t get a chance since I checked behind. So on the turn he didn’t want to risk me checking behind again, so he fired. Then, after I made the raise, my roommate claims that he could have realized that I polarized my range, and just called in order to let me hang myself on the river. But when the river pairs the 9, villain could have realized the river 9 isn’t a card I can ever bluff, and decided that I could have been raising the turn for deception (as I was), and pretty much just hope that he can salvage some value from a T by jamming. I had to agree with my roommate that this line of thinking did make sense, but this is where the timing tell comes into play; it was something I didn’t even recognize before. Villain had called the turn pretty quickly, then insta-jammed the river. At the time, this thought didn’t exactly go through my mind, but it just didn’t make sense to me that he would move in that quickly, because in my mind, in order to make a play this sophisticated, villain would have to take at least a few seconds to think. First, he would have had to look at the river card, and see how it affected the rest of the hand the way it was played. Second, he would have had to think that I raised the turn in hopes that he thinks it polarized my range, and that a T is actually a much bigger part of my range than I had tried to make it seem. Third, he would have had to have thought that I think he can’t shove here for value and that I will put him on a pure bluff—since that’s what I need to do in order to make the call with a pair of Ts. Now as I consider it, this type of thought process doesn’t happen over the course of a second or two, and in my eyes, it seemed too unlikely that he could have come up with all of this information so quickly. And I really believe that’s the determining factor in the call (Plus the fact that I think he might be tilting since I stacked him twice in the previous 30 minutes before this hand). So when someone is trying to claim that they don’t know how they knew someone couldn’t have a hand, or that they knew the guy had to have a monster, I am pretty sure this is the type of thing that is going through their mind. They are thinking about their hand in a way that is one level above their opponents, and they are realizing that in order for villain to be thinking one level ahead of them, while making earlier streets still seem credible, they would have had to take the time to consider the different options. So obviously timing tells are never situation specific: too long of a deliberation at one point can mean exactly the opposite of too long a deliberation at another. It all has to make sense in the context of the hand up to that point, and unless you are thinking one level ahead of your opponent, it’s pretty much impossible to determine what means what. So how do you get good at understanding these situations? Experience is the only way. Being able to do this isn’t something that can be taught, but if you know how it’s done, I think you are a lot more likely to pick up on it when it comes about, and to realize it those times you do “get that feeling” as a lot of us describe it, and make the right decision. Thanks for reading

1970-01-01T00:00:00+01:00 1970-01-01T00:00:00+01:00 1970-01-01T00:00:00+01:00 http://marshall28.liquidpoker.net marshall28

INTRO Okay so, after beating 400NL and 600NL consistently for the last two months, I finally thought I had gained enough experience in order to start sharing the ideas and insights that have afforded me this success. I think this blog should be most helpful to those who are willing to put time and effort into their game, and are attempting to move up from micro and small stakes to mid stakes. What I intend to do here is to discuss ideas I have specifically relating to poker, answers to frequently asked questions by micro-mid stakes players, and interesting insights I have come across from magazines, books, or the forums. The majority of the time I suspect I will be posting interesting hands I've played, or ones that my friends have played accompanied by an analysis. More specifically, what I'd like to focus on in this blog are more advanced aspects of poker that generally aren't addressed in magazines or books, and ones that rarely come up in the forums. In general, fundamentals are the main focus of these books and magazines because they are trying to write to a large audience, which includes mostly beginning to novice players. What I'd like to talk about are things that players who already have a fairly good fundamental understanding can benefit from. Things like game flow/dynamics, relevant note taking and application, multi-level thinking, developing specific reads on players, and the one thing I believe most important to the success of a mid-stakes player, hand reading. In addition, I'd like to note that I am going to offer my services as a coach to anyone playing 50nl - 200nl. I can be PM'ed here or on 2p2, my ID there is also Marshall28. ENTRY #1 For my first entry I’m going to keep it simple and just post a few hands I’ve played in the last week along with an analysis of my thought process. Hopefully this will spark some questions or discussion that will lead to how advanced concepts are applied. I'm just going to post hands and take things as they arise. POKERSTARS GAME #13330871184: HOLD'EM NO LIMIT ($2/$4) - 2007/11/19 - 00:20:55 (ET) Table 'Janina II' 6-max Seat #2 is the button Seat 1: rflagg19 ($899.40 in chips) Seat 2: farlzz ($518.50 in chips) Seat 3: MCCREX ($230 in chips) Seat 4: Marshall28 ($803.50 in chips) Seat 5: Dr_Olson ($730.60 in chips) Seat 6: mused01 ($388 in chips) MCCREX: posts small blind $2 Marshall28: posts big blind $4 *** HOLE CARDS *** Dealt to Marshall28 [8h 7h] Dr_Olson: raises $8 to $12 mused01: folds rflagg19: folds farlzz: folds MCCREX: folds Marshall28: calls $8 Okay so my flat call before the flop isn’t exactly standard, and I’d generally 3bet 80% of the time in this situation, but this player’s stats were 31/21 and he opened from the cutoff, so I definitely didn’t think he had to have a very strong hand, and my plan is to checkraise a lot of different flops that are difficult for him to continue on. We were also nearly 200bb deep, which makes a hand like 78s much more profitable since when I do make a hand it will be fairly well hidden. *** FLOP *** [Jc 6d 5s] Marshall28: checks Dr_Olson: bets $24 Marshall28: raises $48 to $72 Dr_Olson: calls $48 So this was definitely one of the flops I am looking to get, two small cards and one big card. This is a great flop to checkraise with almost any two cards. However I also have a straight draw which gives my hand a lot of added value as I am now semi bluffing rather than just bluffing. Note that if this flop had come QT5r, KJTr, or something low I would just give up. The reason for this is that the flop has to appear to have missed his hand, and it has to appear to villain that it hit my hand. Of course the J could have hit him, and after he flat calls my checkraise I put him on just that, a J. *** TURN *** [Jc 6d 5s] [Qd] Marshall28: bets $142 Dr_Olson: calls $142 Now, the turn came a Q, which is a pretty good card for me since I am putting him on a jack, obviously it’s not good if he’s holding QJ, but that’s really just less likely considering the fact that there is a Q and a J on board. I follow through on the turn for a couple of reasons; first of all, if he has a J, the Q is a little bit of a scare card as QJ is a good portion of my range, betting the turn also shows that the Q didn’t scare me, so at this point what I’m representing is JQ or a set of 6s or 5s. The only other hands I would do this with are 78 9T or two random diamonds. I am putting a ton of pressure on him if he is holding a hand like KJ AJ or JT, as he basically has to believe I am capable of running a big bluff or a big semi bluff. In general, I expect most players at my table to think I am a good player, and very capable of making this semi bluff on the turn, so I didn’t necessarily think villain had to have a huge hand to call here. *** RIVER *** [Jc 6d 5s Qd] [Jh] Marshall28: bets $577.50 and is all-in So when the river comes J, I realized that this is a perfect spot for a triple barrel bluff, there are a few reasons for this. One, because I flat called preflop, checkraised the flop and led the turn, my hand looks very much like a set of 5s or a set of 6s; two, villain had to think that I thought he was holding a J, and when it pairs on the river I would have to assume that it made him trips, so if he thinks I think he has 3 of a kind, and I’m moving in, he has to think that I must have a better hand; third, most players don’t believe their opponents are capable of running a big bluff in a 200bb pot, so in villains eyes, I must have the nuts. Given the way villain played the hand, he can’t possibly stack off here with KJ or even AJ, QJ is the only hand he can hold that can call me. It was also really important that I moved in as fast as possible because if I were to sit there and think about it, villain might think that I didn’t know what to do when the J paired, but when I move in very quickly, it looks like I think I’m going to get a call because I must think he has a J. Villain ended up tanking for about a minute and a half, but I knew when he didn’t call instantly that he didn’t have QJ and couldn’t call. Dr_Olson: folds Marshall28 collected $451 from pot Marshall28: doesn't show hand So I posted this other hand for LP’s low-mid stakes hand of the week: POKERSTARS GAME #13307684978: HOLD'EM NO LIMIT ($3/$6) - 2007/11/17 - 22:54:29 (ET) Table 'Vitja' 6-max Seat #1 is the button Seat 1: nealjl ($281.70 in chips) Seat 3: ipokeder ($618 in chips) Seat 4: Marshall28 ($606 in chips) Seat 5: Leatherass9 ($969.30 in chips) ipokeder: posts small blind $3 Marshall28: posts big blind $6 *** HOLE CARDS *** Dealt to Marshall28 [Js Ts] Leatherass9: folds nealjl: folds ipokeder: raises $18 to $24 Marshall28: raises $48 to $72 ipokeder: calls $48 This opponent was a very aggressive player, he played 29/26 and we had played a few hands before this, we have both played each other pretty aggressively, he attempted a triple barrel bluff on me once, and I had been 3betting him pretty aggressively. So basically his raise in the SB didn’t really tell me much as he could have a very wide range of hands, so I 3bet JTs in the BB which is pretty standard for me in this situation. Villain knows I 3bet aggressively, so his call basically means that he can’t have a monster as he would 4bet me with any kind of pair Jacks or better, and AK. When he calls me, it means that he thinks his hand is ahead of my range, but it’s not good enough to 4bet. *** FLOP *** [6s 9d 2h] ipokeder: checks Marshall28: checks This flop was a pretty terrible one for me because he probably thinks I have two random high cards, and if I bet here, I expect to be at least called, probably checkraised very often. Basically, there is nothing I can represent that he will give me credit for if he called preflop. I mean, if he thought his hand was best preflop, he definitely thinks his hand is best at this point. So I checked behind, pretty much expecting to give up the pot. *** TURN *** [6s 9d 2h] [Tc] ipokeder: bets $54 Marshall28: raises $102 to $156 ipokeder: calls $102 My check on flop signifies to him that I can’t have a pr of 9s, or an overpair as he knows I would bet those hands 100% since he expects I expect he’s going to C/R. So his bet on the turn figures he is going to take the pot very often. So I make a pair of Ts on the turn and he leads out into me. I really expected him to bet almost any turn here. But I still have to find out whether my pair of Ts is the best hand or not, so that’s the reason for my raise here. It looks a lot like I think he is just trying to take down the pot, since the only hands he might be able to put me on are AT or JT, but even then, he has to think I’m going to flat call those hands since he is probably only bluffing or betting a very strong hand here (for example, he can't expect I think I’m going to get called by a worse hand when I raise here if I do hold a ten). But he calls my raise anyways, I don’t quite know what to make of this, but I figure 100% he's going to check the river to me and I’m going to check behind for showdown (since I figure his call on the turn means he has a small pr and thinks I’m bluffing, or he has a monster trying to trap me), he could have been making a hero call on the turn with a smaller pr like 77/88 or even 55/44). *** RIVER *** [6s 9d 2h Tc] [9s] ipokeder: bets $390 and is all-in Marshall28: calls $378 and is all-in So he open jams the river. Basically, I would expect him to be putting me on air here a good portion of the time, and if he just called my turn raise, he was either calling there because he was slowplaying me or he had a marginal made hand and he thought I was bluffing. If he was slowplaying me because he thought I didn't have a hand, he would want to check the river to me in hopes that I bluff it so he could snap me off. He would never bet here with a strong made hand, if that's what he had, he would have just b/3b the turn all in, because it means that he thought I had a hand when I raised him on the turn. If he had a hand w/ marginal showdown value that called the turn because he thought I was bluffing, he would always check the river to me in order to call a river bet. He would definitely just get it all in on the turn if he did have a big hand and he thought I had a hand. It doesn't make sense that he would jam the river if he thought I had a hand, and he had one that was stronger than mine. So his jam must mean he has no pair, so once I realized this, I called. *** SHOW DOWN *** ipokeder: shows [Qs As] (a pair of Nines) Marshall28: shows [Js Ts] (two pair, Tens and Nines) Marshall28 collected $1210 from pot