NL400 AA vs river shove

villain is 20/13, 3bets 5%. he 3bets me pretty wide from the blinds, ive seen him 3bet QTo vs me and i expect him to 3bet AK here all the time. ive also seen him flat as wide as J9o from the blinds. his aggression stats are pretty low and i havent seen him be bluffy at all. he folds 62% to cbets.

my thought process here is that i expect him to 3bet AK/KQ type hands preflop, and if he flatted with them i think its unlikely he floats this flop with KJo or something. given that, i dont think this is ever a bluff and i think he has quads. merits to folding? i feel pretty confident about folding but wanted to double check.

Submitted by : joLin

***** Hand History for Game 23689191076 ***** (Full Tilt)
$400.00 USD NL Texas Hold'em - Tuesday, September 07, 03:02:58 ET 2010
Table Leek (Real Money)
Seat 5 is the button
Seat 1: what a donk ( $925.30 USD )
Seat 2: josh3336 ( $465.40 USD )
Seat 3: maddogman73 ( $449.00 USD )
Seat 4: Hero ( $412.00 USD )
Seat 5: NoodleMeNow ( $269.60 USD )
Seat 6: lindavan ( $281.20 USD )
Seat 7: ChemTrade ( $402.50 USD )
Seat 8: deeznuts105 ( $460.10 USD )
Seat 9: tjay10is ( $400.00 USD )
lindavan posts small blind $2.00 USD.
ChemTrade posts big blind $4.00 USD.

Holecards
Dealt to Hero
deeznuts105 folds
what a donk folds
josh3336 folds
maddogman73 folds
Hero raises $12.00 USD
NoodleMeNow folds
lindavan folds
ChemTrade calls $8.00 USD

Flop (Pot : $26.00)

   
ChemTrade checks
Hero bets $16.00 USD
ChemTrade calls $16.00 USD

Turn (Pot : $58.00)

   
ChemTrade checks
Hero bets $40.00 USD
ChemTrade calls $40.00 USD

River (Pot : $138.00)

   
ChemTrade checks
Hero bets $80.00 USD
ChemTrade raises $334.50 USD

id never fold if this was not full tilt poker. id expect a 9 here 99% of the time lol

lol what? he can easily be value shoving a king

snap.

he can be value shoving a king & he could easily be bluff raising because your sizing is very small though it itd be an awful spot.

if he did have the 9 snap leave FTP

snap call imo

fwiw i don't think its that crazy for him to c/c KQ or something on the flop.

fr huh? you are never good here

Doubt anyone would valueshove a king here so I think this is a clear fold.

id fold

I know this guy pretty well he could easily have a K here but given the play I belive and I seen him do it mixing up he's game with high pairs so he could easily have AA KK IMO it's close to a fold but I would call just to take note but how I seen him mixing he's play would snap atleast for info.

Also forgot to say I got him more looser 25/15/60. If he has a 9 well who cares go on next hand.

On September 07 2010 08:53 Stim_Abuser wrote: snap. he can be value shoving a king & he could easily be bluff raising because your sizing is very small though it itd be an awful spot. if he did have the 9 snap leave FTP

Bet isn't that small it's a 2/3 pot not bad sizing it actually induces a king to shove.

On September 07 2010 12:37 MeaL wrote: Show nested quote + On September 07 2010 08:53 Stim_Abuser wrote: snap. he can be value shoving a king & he could easily be bluff raising because your sizing is very small though it itd be an awful spot. if he did have the 9 snap leave FTP Bet isn't that small it's a 2/3 pot not bad sizing it actually induces a king to shove.

What good is inducing a king to shove if you're put in a tough decision with AA =.=

On September 07 2010 11:39 Twisted wrote: Doubt anyone would valueshove a king here so I think this is a clear fold.

is this a level or are you seriously putting villain on a one hand range?

well if u think about it villain only holds one hand at the moment, and if everything points to that one hand..

tho I have no idea if a fold is what should be done, just sayin

you should be like 90% sure he has a 9 to fold this

On September 07 2010 16:18 chipsOwner wrote: Show nested quote + On September 07 2010 11:39 Twisted wrote: Doubt anyone would valueshove a king here so I think this is a clear fold. is this a level or are you seriously putting villain on a one hand range?

No, he can have multiple nines (9T, 9J, A9, 89, seeing as he defends blinds light). Or maybe some weirdly played KK (doubt it). Either way this is never a single K, hence we are dead.

Seriously you people are just making up reasons why he can valueshove a K here. Basically trying to justify a call based on a far-fetched idea.

Oh it's never a bluff either unless villain is batshit insane/bad because by the looks of it, the general crowd would snapcall here.

On September 07 2010 17:06 Twisted wrote: Show nested quote + On September 07 2010 16:18 chipsOwner wrote:   On September 07 2010 11:39 Twisted wrote: Doubt anyone would valueshove a king here so I think this is a clear fold. is this a level or are you seriously putting villain on a one hand range? No, he can have multiple nines. Or maybe some weirdly played KK. Either way this is never a single K, hence we are dead. Seriously you people are just making up reasons why he can valueshove a K here. Basically trying to justify a call based on a far-fetched idea.

this is how i feel about it too. its hard for villain to get to the river with a K in the first place (he prob 3bets his better kings, and his worse kings prob wont float the flop that often), and if he gets to the river with a K he prob doesnt value shove it. thanks for the responses, i feel really good about this fold.

I feel good that you feel good