sizing question 3b pot nl100 rush FR

villain is 17/15/5 over 1100 hands and seems competent and seems to be a reg. we'v had some stealing and restealing leveling history in the past but that's pretty irrevelant here. he generally seems to play straight forward vs me when i'm not in LP and vice versa.

i'm bluffing pre with card removal and in position and his PFR is high enough as is his fold to 3b (79%) that i should get plenty of better hands to fold. i check back the flop for pot control and to induce bluffs obviously. i also fear kicker trouble but he shouldnt have many Ax in his calling range (AQ AK only). i doubt he even calls AQ to be honest but it's possible.

i think my hand here is good and is obivously willing to stack off but the question is how do i get the chips in the best way?

after i call the 14 on the turn, the pot is 50 and he has 99 left so the stack to pot ratio is 2:1. i obviously want to raise here for value vs bigger aces and diamonds but i'm confused on how much. another factor in my raising is that i realli dunt see him bluffing the river if it bricks out and if i get counterfeited/diamond hits, i'm in a shit spot.

AKd has 40% equity
JJ-KK wit a diamond has 25%
AK witout diamond has 20%.

after my raise, i'm obviously snapping a shove from him and shoving any blank rivers myself (no 9, 7, or diamond)

so suggestions on turn sizing?

Submitted by : wakamaru

***** Hand History for Game 23340728174 ***** (Full Tilt)
$100.00 USD NL Texas Hold'em - Tuesday, August 24, 07:32:10 ET 2010
Table Adrenaline (Real Money)
Seat 7 is the button
Seat 1: wicks85 ( $49.65 USD )
Seat 2: 7oker ( $245.05 USD )
Seat 3: canael ( $42.55 USD )
Seat 4: raostarrr ( $123.85 USD )
Seat 5: toIncase ( $196.50 USD )
Seat 6: ripkeniv ( $110.10 USD )
Seat 7: Hero ( $210.80 USD )
Seat 8: shortychamp1989 ( $43.50 USD )
Seat 9: tsubasa11 ( $30.00 USD )
shortychamp1989 posts small blind $0.50 USD.
tsubasa11 posts big blind $1.00 USD.

Holecards
Dealt to Hero
wicks85 folds
7oker folds
canael folds
raostarrr raises $3.00 USD
toIncase folds
ripkeniv folds
Hero raises $10.00 USD
shortychamp1989 folds
tsubasa11 folds
raostarrr calls $7.00 USD

Flop (Pot : $21.50)

   
raostarrr checks
Hero checks

Turn (Pot : $21.50)

   
raostarrr bets $14.00 USD
Hero raises

if he can't have AQ in his calling range preflop you should be c-betting here almost always ;-0 - your also never inducing bluffs by checking since if you think about his preflop call out of position range, there are no bluffs..

as played can't really go wrong.. you have 2 pair

i think i would just call this turn. not because i think you are beat but i think it might get you the most money vs his total range in the long run.

if you do raise the turn, i dont think im folding diamond rivers that often. 7 and 9 i would fold more often.

On August 24 2010 20:48 piratematerial wrote: i think i would just call this turn. not because i think you are beat but i think it might get you the most money vs his total range in the long run. if you do raise the turn, i dont think im folding diamond rivers that often. 7 and 9 i would fold more often.

we dont have to worry about folding the river, we are in position.

tom, i thought his calling range preflop was a ton of pairs as well as AQ (possibly not sure) and def AK. on that flop if i cbet for value, i feel like all his pairs fold and his AK continues which is bad for me. if he has JJ here, it's an easy c/f i think for him. i guess my wording for inducing bluff is incorrect as the only bluffs would be him turning like 88 into a bluff to get off JJ-QQ. i meant that i only expect 1 street of value from my weak ace on the flop so i'd prefer to take it on the turn which might cause lighter calls and/or him betting for protection with lke TTd or something.

my question was simply how much should i raise to best induce shoves from AK and protect vs AK and diamonds.

big pairs aren't folding to one bet on most flops lol. that said i don't mind checking behind our A2 here and just calling one or two barrels depending on how it runs out most of the time. i'd also be surprised if he raise/calls AK oop, it's much easier playing it 4 betting it, but some ppl like me are really bad and do stuff you're not supposed to randomly.

i think it's fine... i would probably call the turn though and then bet any diamonds if checked to and raise any non-diamonds if he bets half pot or w/e again. maybe that's bad but i mean i agree he probably does have some small % of bluffs that are firing two after you chk back the flop.