Raise ev (math)

And usually when he calls, you can improve and win more, and when you dont improve you dont lose more.

OP you have it right.

Misjka: 90 is incorrect, you are counting only what can you win, that means his stack + pot (does include your bets from previous streets but not from current street of betting)

On August 12 2010 03:48 Misjka wrote: Yeah, there is an error because you need add that you also win your own money back when he calls. That is, in case he calls, you have 30% chance to win $90 and 70% chance to lose $40. So it goes like: (0.5*20)+0.5*((0.3*90)-(0,7*40)) = $9,5 profits

This is definitely wrong. Winning your own money back??? I think your line of thinking makes a flip +EV. Say you both ship $100 pre on a perfect flip. With your thinking you have a 50% chance of winning $100 and a 50% chance of losing $50.
0.5*100 - 0.5*50 = $25 EV. Not correct.

As far as I can see moneypokers calculations are correct assuming we're all-in after the raise. Otherwise there will be more betting to take into account as Try2BePerfect pointed out.

God I suck donkey balls, probably half asleep while typin.

But ya, I'm wrong and moneypoker is correct (assuming this is an AI situation)

This is all too complicated who the hell needs to know this

as always, its 50/50.

either happens or it don't.

its basically the fold equity formula : EV = [EV(fold)] * x + [EV(call)] * (1-x) , where x is how often he folds, ev (fold) is the pot and ev(call) is your ev when called.

Setup: risk 40 to win 20 -> villain has to call 30

possible outcomes:
(1) 50% = 0.5 -> villain folds -> hero wins 20 (pot)
(2) 50%
...(2a) 30% * 50% = 0.15 -> villain calls -> hero wins 50 (pot + call amount)
...(2b) 70% * 50% = 0.35 -> villain calls -> hero loses 40 (raise amount)

Total EV:
tEV = 0.5*20 + 0.15*50 - 0.35*40 = 10 + 7.5 - 14
tEV = +3.5 $

I want to calculate the EV of a raise. Lets asume the pot is 10$ I have 30% chance to win the pot. My oponent bets pot (10$) and I raise him the pot (40$ total). My oponent folds 50% of the time and 50% of the time he calls.

Assumming there is no other action to happen.

EV of folding = $0

EV of raising = (50% * $20) + (50% * 30% * $50) - (50% * 70% * $40) = 10 + 7.5 - 14 = +$3.5

It means this:

1. In 50% cases he folds and you win the pot, which is $20. You are +$20 oppossed to the scenario where you folded instead of raising.

2. In 15% (50% * 30%) cases he calls and you win the pot, which is now 10 + 40 + 40 = $90. You had to invest those $40, so you are +$50 oppossed to the scenario where you folded instead of raising.

3. In 35% (50% * 70%) cases he calls and he wins the $90 pot, which means, you lost those $40 more oppossed to the scenario where you folded instead of raising.

I use to to calculate poker math like that. Now I do it like this:

+EV = My raise looks strong + His hand is weak

Works much better.

On August 12 2010 14:53 edzwoo wrote: I use to to calculate poker math like that. Now I do it like this: +EV = My raise looks strong + His hand is weak Works much better.

ditto...fuck math

ye who cares about math when u can just play by feel

I feel like understanding the mathematical logic is important, not like your going to be running these calculations every time you decide your next play... but it's good to understand why semi-bluffing like this is better than calling or folding etc. etc.

$40 in the middle, $50 if you get called
$40 * .5 + $50 * .5 * .3 = $27.50 is your equity in the pot before they've made their decision.
It's kind of pointless to do these calculations after you've raised though. Before making your decision is where it's important.

Ok lets take it a step further.

Lets asume my oponent has a range.

The pot is 10$ he bets 10$. I raise him the pot (40$).

He folds 50% of his range. He calls 30% of the time and if he calls my equity is 50%. He reraises pot(130$ total) 20% of the time and if he does, my equity is 35%. If we call the reraise the EV is:

EV=(50%*20)+(30%*50%*50)-(30%*50%*40)+(20%*35%*140)-(20%*65%*130)=6,8

Is this correct? Do we call the reraise?

Pot is 10, opp bets $10, you raise to $20, he raises to $100 making it $80 to you.
If you call $80, pot is $210. 80/210 = 38.1% which is > 35% so there it's a fold.
Again though, I think you're asking the wrong questions.

On August 13 2010 16:51 jchysk wrote: Pot is 10, opp bets $10, you raise to $20, he raises to $100 making it $80 to you. If you call $80, pot is $210. 80/210 = 38.1% which is > 35% so there it's a fold. Again though, I think you're asking the wrong questions.

This looks wrong. Why do I raise 20? Pot raise is 40. Why does he raises to 100?

What questions should I ask?

On August 13 2010 05:34 moneypoker wrote: Ok lets take it a step further. Lets asume my oponent has a range. The pot is 10$ he bets 10$. I raise him the pot (40$). He folds 50% of his range. He calls 30% of the time and if he calls my equity is 50%. He reraises pot(130$ total) 20% of the time and if he does, my equity is 35%. If we call the reraise the EV is: EV=(50%*20)+(30%*50%*50)-(30%*50%*40)+(20%*35%*140)-(20%*65%*130)=6,8 Is this correct? Do we call the reraise?

This is a flawed question. Your equity is the % of the pot you will win at showdown. If your calling a raise on the flop you're not seeing your entire equity because you're only going to get one card. There's still more poker to be played.

On August 14 2010 04:18 edzwoo wrote: This is a flawed question. Your equity is the % of the pot you will win at showdown. If your calling a raise on the flop you're not seeing your entire equity because you're only going to get one card. There's still more poker to be played.

So when making a decision, should I only consider the equity of hitting the next card? Like if I have a flush draw and about 35% equity to win the hand at showdown and a guy bets pot on the flop should I fold? Because I only have about 18% chance to hit on the turn.

In that type of situation, you go by your outs and implied odds (which you'll have to estimate on your own).