satty math

top 4 gets seats to a 370 tourney, 5th is $200. Is this a fold or jam?
And from villains perspective, whats the minimum I need to call?
Submitted by : gawdawaful

PokerStars Game #44184493276: Tournament #273353850, $20.00+$0.40 USD Holdem No Limit - Level VII (600/1200) - 2010/05/16 12:20:52 PT [2010/05/16 15:20:52 ET]
Table 273353850 1 9-max Seat #3 is the button
Seat 3: Hero (2746 in chips)
Seat 4: Goral (3180 in chips)
Seat 5: Lucelsar (6700 in chips)
Seat 6: DannyDeBeato (3193 in chips)
Seat 8: QcKimo (7681 in chips)
Hero: posts the ante 240
Goral: posts the ante 240
Lucelsar: posts the ante 240
DannyDeBeato: posts the ante 240
QcKimo: posts the ante 240
Goral: posts small blind 600
Lucelsar: posts big blind 1200

Holecards(Odds)
Dealt to Hero
DannyDeBeato: folds
QcKimo: folds
Hero: raises 1306 to 2506 and is all-in
Goral: folds
Lucelsar: calls 1306

Flop(Odds) (Pot : $6,812.00)

   

Turn(Odds) (Pot : $6,812.00)

   

River (Pot : $6,812.00)

   

Showdown
Lucelsar: shows (a pair of Kings)
Hero: shows (a pair of Jacks)
Lucelsar collected 6812 from pot

Summary
Total pot 6812 | Rake 0
Board  
Seat 3: Hero (button) showed and lost with a pair of Jacks
Seat 4: Goral (small blind) folded before Flop
Seat 5: Lucelsar (big blind) showed and won (6812) with a pair of Kings
Seat 6: DannyDeBeato folded before Flop (didnt bet)
Seat 8: QcKimo folded before Flop (didnt bet)

looks fine. the pay jump is pretty small, only 1 buyin and you're already itm.

im not exactly sure what ur 2nd question is, but if ur asking about villain's calling range, he can be calling pretty wide b/c he's a much bigger stack and can afford to flip with you.

how is the pay jump small?

its almost double...

you have the worst stack, you can push much wider than AJo imo

villain's fold on the big blind is doubling you up anyway, so i would call extremely wide if i were him

yeah my mistake, it's like 9bi, not 1.

it's still not as bad as some other sats, like live event qualifiers, certain steps structures.

i just think its v unlikely AJ is a fold here given you're the smallest stack and how short everyone is. winning this more or less guarantees you the seat while folding gives everyone else incentive to wait for you to blind out.

If anyone who plays a lot of sats can chime in here, I'm wondering if you kept the same positions and switched Hero's stack with Seat 6, so we're no longer the smallest stack and someone else has to get allin before us. What's the bottom of our range then?

i would push with any ace any king and any queen here since even queen high beats bb's range and u have to double up here if u want to win a ticket...bb should be calling with atc in this spot imo

prolly like 60% to win a ticket when you jam here maybe a little more going off the assumption that bb calls 90%+ of the time.

i'd ship it only thing is danny gets the BB again before you do so it might be better to let that play out before you make your move.

The only thing you can really put into the equation is whether or not the SB who is equally low in chips will be pushing blind vs blind, and whether or not bb is calling him. If you think he's pushing wide, and BB is obv calling wide, then I'd say you can let it go and let him risk his equity against the bb for a freeroll to the tournament entry. That being said, I think when we're this short, this hand basically plays itself, and it's too strong to fold unless you know sb is going to push and you can freeroll a shot at getting a ticket :D

Some people will sometimes fold in the BB here. It depends on the table dynamic for me, but as BB I would often fold to your shove here (as long as there was enough activity at the table in general so that I was guaranteed a ticket by doing nothing) so it's not like you have no FE.

I think it's pretty important to mention that the other shortstack should be calling us decently wide as well with 2 bb's.

On August 02 2010 16:10 Fujikura wrote: The only thing you can really put into the equation is whether or not the SB who is equally low in chips will be pushing blind vs blind, and whether or not bb is calling him. If you think he's pushing wide, and BB is obv calling wide, then I'd say you can let it go and let him risk his equity against the bb for a freeroll to the tournament entry. That being said, I think when we're this short, this hand basically plays itself, and it's too strong to fold unless you know sb is going to push and you can freeroll a shot at getting a ticket :D

this is pretty interesting. Also the comment below about table activity.

I'm sure there are a lot of +EV ICM shoves that are really bad once we realize the rest of the table is lagtarded and will allow us to freeroll a 50%+ chance of winning.

Yeah, ICM is just a model, and it has some clear inadequacies, so don't treat it as gospel.