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What best to do on the river?

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4kinggenius   United Kingdom. Mar 11 2010 03:51. Posts 317

Submitted by : 4kinggenius

Full Tilt Poker Game #19152248915: Table Ubers (6 max) - $0.10/$0.25 - No Limit Hold'em - 3:39:20 ET - 2010/03/11
Seat 1: Bugfix1212 ($14.17)
Seat 2: Iridium10 ($36.44)
Seat 3: esuhyungsup ($32.63)
Seat 4: wormsr23 ($41.55)
Seat 5: shark2006 ($27.93)
Seat 6: Hero ($50.06)
wormsr23 posts the small blind of $0.10
shark2006 posts the big blind of $0.25
The button is in seat #3

Holecards
Dealt to HeroJsKc
Hero raises to $0.85
Bugfix1212 folds
Iridium10 folds
esuhyungsup folds
wormsr23 calls $0.75
shark2006 folds

Flop (Pot : $1.95)

   8hKh3c
wormsr23 bets $0.50
Hero has 15 seconds left to act
Hero raises to $1.75
wormsr23 calls $1.25

Turn (Pot : $5.45)

   8hKh3cKd
wormsr23 checks
Hero bets $4.75
wormsr23 calls $4.75

River (Pot : $14.95)

   8hKh3cKdAs
wormsr23 has 15 seconds left to act
wormsr23 bets $10
Hero has 15 seconds left to act
Hero has requested TIME



this guy is playing 33/10 over only 23 hands - what to do here?
Am I beat?
Am i going for thin value?
If so what is the best bet size?
If i go for thin value and am wrong he is shoving so can I get away from this?

Really wasnt sure what the most +EV move here was - would be very interested in all of your opinions and dont just say "Shove - you have 3 Kings" please explain your thoughts!!!

Edit: PLease note we are deep stacked

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NL1K is only ever one drink away......Last edit: 11/03/2010 03:53

joLin   United States. Mar 11 2010 04:09. Posts 3818

shoving might be ok cuz wtf can he have here that beats you? 88/33/KQ would be super weirdly played.

but being pretty deep just calling might be ok too. im not sure which i like better.

YoUr_KiLLeR @ TLLast edit: 11/03/2010 04:10

LikeASet   United States. Mar 11 2010 04:15. Posts 2113

you got an idiot donking a king high rainbow board, a board that everyone and their mothers c bet. Then fish goes off to check call turn.. Then he donks on the best bluff card which you would try to bluff if you missed a draw. no draws have completed btw...

oh and you have trip kings...

there's nothing thin about valueing 2nd nut trips. raise more on flop btw like 2.50 you guys are deep so he will call with is FD's. As for river, his retarded play dictates that villain probably plays something like 33/10 in the long run so villain can have a shit load of worst kings here. Just charge his whole stack i think.


joLin   United States. Mar 11 2010 04:16. Posts 3818

im a bit torn. his hand looks more like a weak Kx than 88/33 but i can certainly imagine ppl playing 88/33 this way sometimes. i thinkkkkkkkkk im leaning towards weak Kx and shove.

YoUr_KiLLeR @ TL 

joLin   United States. Mar 11 2010 04:18. Posts 3818

and yes raise a LOT bigger on the flop.

YoUr_KiLLeR @ TL 

4Kingell   United Kingdom. Mar 11 2010 05:11. Posts 1453

I agree - must raise more on flop. As for the river - you cannot raise fold - he only has $24 or something behind?? So ship or call. Take your variance choices. I can easily see him turning up with 33/88/K8/K3/KQ/AK but equally possible he has Kx that you beat. If I'm running good I shove if I'm running like dogshit I call - and yes I know this is retarded thinking so therefore I am a retard - you gotta live with what you've got.

If you know the enemy and know yourself you need not fear the results of a hundred battles. Sun Tzu  

vlseph   United States. Mar 11 2010 05:13. Posts 3026

if you raised flop to get value out of worse kings, then you should shove river because his weak kings are now more inclined to stay in than before.
also, hearts have not hit so you don't need to be afraid of that.
i would assume sets are either going to be raising the flop or raising the turn, so i'm not very worried about that either.
AK gets there on the river but doesn't matter much since AK was ahead already, so I think you should only really be worried about K8s (only one combo exists of this, and he might not even play this hand) and KQ.
i think KQ/K8 would raise flop/turn as well in general, so you aren't afraid of very much anymore.
i see lots of bad players donk/call draws, and if he had the nut flush draw he just hit top pair on the river.

all of these add up to a shove on the river

The only hands a nit balances in his range are the nuts, the second nuts, and the third nuts. 

Zalfor   United States. Mar 11 2010 12:36. Posts 2236

ez shove. u don't lose to anything except KQ


offsuit   United States. Mar 11 2010 13:02. Posts 152

... and AK and any pocket or K/x that makes a boat?


4kinggenius   United Kingdom. Mar 12 2010 08:52. Posts 317

thanks all - was really confused by his bet on the river after I had shown strength all through and I wasnt giving him credit for being a thinking player who would recognise the Ace as a scare card.

Anyway - I shoved and he folded......

NL1K is only ever one drink away...... 

zulu_nation8   United States. Mar 12 2010 13:30. Posts 1929

this looks like A8


KeyleK_uk   United Kingdom. Mar 12 2010 13:43. Posts 1687

poker is soooo much easier when you flop setsLast edit: 12/03/2010 13:43

rozyboy   Israel. Mar 12 2010 15:59. Posts 298

this REALLY looks like a missed FD.
u could shove and hope maybe he had AhXh and get a loose call from a donk- that's why I think this is a good river for you.
if he has 88/33/KQ here just.. w.e 33/10 fish get lucky sometimes.
but he calls so many Kx and AhXh or A8 type hands u have to shove prob

recently switched from weak tight to weak agressive. 

Carthac   United States. Mar 12 2010 20:21. Posts 1343

Pretty strong hand, and youre getting 2.5:1 on your money. Personally, I wouldnt ship but at least call


 



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