100nl - Is this a call?

Villain is pretty tight from what I've got on him 15/10 or so with a very low agr factor. His line really doesn't look like anything. His 2pairs, sets, and straight are betting the turn, and AXcc are flatting the river bet. So I don't know wtf he could possibly have on the river.
Submitted by : Bigbobm

Full Tilt Poker Game #19147854602: Table Bud (6 max) - $0.50/$1 - No Limit Hold'em - 23:08:04 ET - 2010/03/10
Seat 1: ImbaRiverStar ($100)
Seat 2: NickStam ($100.50)
Seat 3: biggie928 ($110.95)
Seat 4: gambleallday ($131.50)
Seat 5: Sugar GB ($53.90)
Seat 6: bigbobm11 ($326)
NickStam posts the small blind of $0.50
biggie928 posts the big blind of $1
The button is in seat #1

Holecards
Dealt to bigbobm11
gambleallday folds
Sugar GB folds
bigbobm11 raises to $3.50
ImbaRiverStar has 15 seconds left to act
ImbaRiverStar calls $3.50
NickStam folds
biggie928 folds

Flop (Pot : $8.50)

   
bigbobm11 bets $6
ImbaRiverStar has 15 seconds left to act
ImbaRiverStar has requested TIME
ImbaRiverStar raises to $15
bigbobm11 has 15 seconds left to act
bigbobm11 calls $9

Turn (Pot : $38.50)

   
bigbobm11 has 15 seconds left to act
bigbobm11 checks
ImbaRiverStar has 15 seconds left to act
ImbaRiverStar has requested TIME
ImbaRiverStar checks

River (Pot : $38.50)

   
bigbobm11 has 15 seconds left to act
bigbobm11 bets $25
ImbaRiverStar has 15 seconds left to act
ImbaRiverStar raises to $68
bigbobm11 has 15 seconds left to act
bigbobm11 has requested TIME
bigbobm11 folds
Uncalled bet of $43 returned to ImbaRiverStar
ImbaRiverStar mucks
ImbaRiverStar wins the pot ($85.50)

Summary
Total pot $88.50 | Rake $3
Board:
Seat 1: ImbaRiverStar (button) collected ($85.50), mucked
Seat 2: NickStam (small blind) folded before the Flop
Seat 3: biggie928 (big blind) folded before the Flop
Seat 4: gambleallday didn't bet (folded)
Seat 5: Sugar GB didn't bet (folded)
Seat 6: bigbobm11 folded on the River

u have a bluff catcher.

why would u bet the river? u open urself up to getting bluffed. now that you got raised, his line looks like he has AXcc. but overall, don't bet river.

why would u flat the river bet with AXcc? u don't have Ax here ever, unless u have A9, which is doubtful

tbh i didn't think he was ever capable of bluffing with missed draws etc, so i thought there was way more ev in betting than trying to snap off a bluff.
even still though there is a pretty big range I can get value from I think

I think he'd raise his AXcc too on river, although that doesnt make much sense with his flop play. I think I pay it off here just to see whats going on for future references. Do you think hes capable of turning something like JJ/QQ into a bluff?

I think he would 3bet those pf, but if he did get there with qq/jj i don't think hes capable of bluffing

I agree with not betting river; the type of range he reps when raising flop should rarely call river and lose.

As played I don't think anyone is going to really bluff this spot ever. Villain credibly reps backdoored Ax type hands, although probably only A6cc and AQ, He could also be an idiot and have a set and be scared of losing value on the turn A or something, so I won't necessarily count that out since I've seen it happen.

Still, regardless of how many combos he has to rep to make you feel okay about calling, I can't imagine NL100 regs bluffing in this spot unless they're the type to try and destroy everyone at every opportunity.

Oh, well with your stats and short reads on him, you should be pretty confident on this fold. 15/10 with low aggression in 6max; pretty much 0% you're good here.

what are you trying to get value out of on the river?

On March 11 2010 02:28 joLin wrote: what are you trying to get value out of on the river?

this by far, you really stop the majority of his draws on the flop from bluffing the river too.

wait so you blockbet and CALL?

And whats his 3bet% and call on BU %?
Why doesn't OP give more reads ?

if your initial read was that he wasn't capable of bluff raising on busted draws or even turning weak made hands into bluffs then a blocker bet then fold is perfectly fine. esp vs a little nit factory as described. Although check/call would probably be superior vs most ranges i feel.

#1: blockbetting doesn't exist
#2: if you don't valuebet here ever, you blow

Well played OP.

He can actually get value from a ton of hands on the river: TT-QQ, and 2 pairs like 97 that are now beaten by kk/AA. I like how this hand was played

I usually vb river here.

On March 11 2010 06:04 Twisted wrote: #1: blockbetting doesn't exist #2: if you don't valuebet here ever, you blow Well played OP.

this is interesting. what kind of hands do we expect to get value out of on the river? is it hands like T9, 98, 87, w/e?

bet/fold river seems best to me.

On March 11 2010 03:32 LemOn[5thF] wrote: wait so you blockbet and CALL? And whats his 3bet% and call on BU %? Why doesn't OP give more reads ?

He's making a value bet with the intention of getting called by worse. Value betting is good against people who will be raising 98,TT,JJ type hands or what not, but I'm pretty confident the average NL100 villain will flat all of those on the flop without any sort of metagame.

On March 11 2010 06:04 Twisted wrote: #1: blockbetting doesn't exist #2: if you don't valuebet here ever, you blow Well played OP.

Really, the only thing I can see calling here against our value bet that we beat is TT-QQ that did not 3B PF. After not reraising pre, he may not even raise that on flop every time, instead opting to just call again. The rest of his range either has us beat or never calls. Value betting here is very questionable imo given how NL100 works.

Also blockbetting definitely does exist, though this isn't a spot for it. There are plenty of situations where you can use it to see cheap showdow against fish where you know you will never get raised by plausible hands that beat you and your blocking bet is smaller than they would have bet if you checked. It's not a common play, but it has its uses.

If you can't get value here you just don't valuebet light enough in general. The whole idea behind valuebetting light is that people always think your range is polarized (i.e. an ace or air on this board) so they call you down light. Then they're like oh, wtf kings. I don't care what you think he has, if he has anything there's a chance he'll call a valuebet and when our hand is most probably the best hand (as in this hand) then just valuebet. If he calls 20% of the time with a worse hand it's worth it. Most of the times he'll just fold and won't get to see our hand.

Stop being concerned with what they're gonna call with and just valuebet when you most likely have the best hand. Just imagine in your head that they're gonna call with KQ and they're gonna call with T9/stubborn 97/96/89 whatever. That topic about the difference between low stakes and mid/high stakes is this: people don't know shit about when to bet for value.

On March 11 2010 14:12 phexac wrote: Also blockbetting definitely does exist, though this isn't a spot for it. There are plenty of situations where you can use it to see cheap showdow against fish where you know you will never get raised by plausible hands that beat you and your blocking bet is smaller than they would have bet if you checked. It's not a common play, but it has its uses.

Sounds like a valuebet to me. Betting small cuz otherwise with check/calling you lose more? wtf is that. You valuebet if you think you beat his range and you valuebet as much as you think he'll call. If you think he has the best hand you check/fold.

Blockbetting lol.

This topic tilts me.

I'd like to give more stats, but other than the basics I don't have too much more on him.

For value hands, there are a bunch of 78/89/9x/TT-QQ hands that can be taking this line. I don't think betting here is hugely +ev but it is pretty bad imo to 100% c/c here with anything but the nuts.

with the exeption of the flop call this is ok