20/40 Commerce hand vs jcmoussa

Villan in this hand is jcmoussa for those who know him. He has been playing pretty solid / snug / almost feels like he's nut peddling. Fish is on button, who has been super passive massive calling station who can't fold a hand to save his life. Both think I'm probably overly aggro at this point, since an orbit before I triple barrel bluffed and failed .

I'm sitting $8k deep. Fish is sitting $3.5k deep. jcmoussa covers both.

Folded to me in MP I raise to $160. Fish on button calls. jcmoussa calls in SB, and BB folds.

Flop comes: (Pot: $520)
jcmoussa checks, I bet $360, Fish calls, and jcmoussa flicks in a pretty quick call.

Turn comes: (Pot: $1600)
jcmoussa checks, I bet $1400. Fish thinks for a while then flat calls, leaving himself $1500 behind. jcmoussa thinks for a little bit then flicks in two pink chips ($10k) raising us both all-in. I...

fold?

ask if you can shove your car and your chips.

Looks like a fold.

Jcmoussa is almost never bluffing given ur description and hoping that he is going for an allin semibluff vs. u with a hand that he thinks is good vs the fish (=top pair good kicker) seems way too courageous. If he did that then just let him have it. I think you would need quite a good reason for not folding here.

i always interpret a turbo call in that spot as a straight draw

hay looky harrrrr

fold
and i would check turn many times, i think jcmoussa can play reversegames with you with the turbo call, and even if he didnt the straight got there. plus even fish can have a hand sometimes. pot control.

Yeah i've played a bit with jcmoussa at 25-50 and his playstyle seems to be pretty tight, with a tendency to pay off a little too light, but not really someone who's going to be CH R semibluffing in this spot esp how short the fish flatter is. I think I check this turn back a lot to get value out of the fish's crap hands on the river with a hefty value bet. And looking at the stacks, hoping he can just get the fish to call with crap hands with a worse jack than you is making up a very small part of his range.

i don't think folds get much easier than this

pretty sure turn bet is best but fold is def best now

i dont even think its close with AA or less, easy fold

feel kinda sick if i have J7 though, thats the borderline hand i think

well its obv not a bluff, not worse for value... thats it isnt it ?

I think this is alot closer spot then alot of u think.. good live heros who play deep well would ship Jx here as standard with fish involved to fold out better Jx/QQ+ from you and get a peice on fish's money. based on your reads its snap fold though...

like seriously, if u were jcmoussa with JT how else would you play it? i'd have to be on sickest downswing of my life to not ship the turn.

On February 27 2010 04:54 AndrewSong wrote: I think this is alot closer spot then alot of u think.. good live heros who play deep well would ship Jx here as standard with fish involved to fold out better Jx/QQ+ from you and get a peice on fish's money. based on your reads its snap fold though...

this

...except I really don't know if it's ever a snap fold, no matter how tight villain is playing. Jx vs the fish is pretty much the nuts here in villain's eyes, even for how tight villain is playing +++ him knowing you should fold almost - if not all - 1 pair hands...so he's got great FE vs you and lot's of showdown value vs fish. The fish impacts the play of this hand 110%.

On February 27 2010 04:57 AndrewSong wrote: like seriously, if u were jcmoussa with JT how else would you play it? i'd have to be on sickest downswing of my life to not ship the turn.

and this

Pretty sure in his eyes, your range consists mostly of 1 pairs...meaning is he really going to play the straight this fast and hard on the turn knowing that you're probably drawing dead? Same goes for a set. J7 shouldn't be in his range...and for J9 I'm almost positive he's c/r flop after fish flats your cbet. Really seems like a squeeze play with a weaker pair/kicker but I've been wrong before.

it doesn't matter what he thinks u have if hero's read is spot on since he can easily have T8 set/twopair. check raising J9 would be pretty bad on flop dry as this cuz all u will do is squeeze out the fish with less then 100bb effective which u really don't want to do.


edit: c/r J9 on the flop

I haven't play against JC in a long time but I think it's a fold here, not close.

I'm also skeptical that JC would c/r the turn with JT.

On February 27 2010 04:54 AndrewSong wrote: I think this is alot closer spot then alot of u think.. good live heros who play deep well would ship Jx here as standard with fish involved to fold out better Jx/QQ+ from you and get a peice on fish's money. based on your reads its snap fold though...

Really really really really really don't think he'll ever do this. Has anyone played more with him? Caz I could be wrong.

imo a fold, I think if you do call you definitely over thought it.