Sports Betting Thread

I'm a few people on LP bet on sports on at least once in a while, ie March Madness, Super Bowl, etc. Let's discuss any good picks we had and any good looking picks for the current day.

I made up for a lackluster Super Bowl by going 4 of 4 today.

Parlay Loyola(Ill) (+21) at Butler and Under 126 O/U same game
Kansas(-2) at Texas
Mavericks(-5) at Golden State
Lakers (-3.5) vs San Antonio without Kobe and Bynum, sick hold.

I use Bodog for now because the PLO games on there are super soft. Any other good sites with easy depositing and cashout reputation?

There are some interesting games tomorrow.
Illinois at Wisconsin(Wisconsin will likely crush)
Tennessee at Vanderbilt(Not sure)
Purdue at Michigan State(Depends on Kalin Lucas. Doesn't look like he'll play. I like Purdue)

So to clarify this is a BBV/sweat thread.

I guess that is what it seems like, but I'd rather prefer the main focus to be discussion about that day's upcoming games. Brags, beats, and sweats are also welcome!

Ive been doing nba/ncaab/nhl parlays like 6 teamers + out of pure rush/excitement and I think out of like 1 month of doing it I hit once, probably down like 4k lifetime off like maybe a 350 parlay sample and average bet of $300. my assistant makes the picks on all the spreads and I take his spreads and combine them with my picks on NHL under/over along with NBA under/over. I think it'd be interesting if you could point out why u prefer college ball over NBA, I mean on an average day ESPN keeps the score of like 30 college basketball games so it seems pretty hard to keep up with how everyone is playing if you're new at this. anyways yea, I don't plan on doing it much anymore as it's pretty annoying how I've missed out on 7-teamer parlays that pay 35k each about ten times in the last week, and all losing by a hair (spurs win over kings 115-113, kings kept shooting 3's and never missed so spurs missed the point spread of -4.5)

the best I can give on here is my input on overs/unders. for tomorrow I like the over on new york knicks/sacramento kings. Both these teams shoot threes like it's not even a real game, so you're usually not sweating the over in the 4th quarter as theyre on pace for a 240 point game by half time pretty often. other than that, rest of my picks are:

bulls/pacers over 202, OKC thunder -1, OKC/portland over 192, utah -4.5 vs clippers(home), georgetown -4, NHL nashville/NY islanders over 5.5, vancouver/tampa bay over 5.5

Some say that the more obscure the game the more inefficient the market.

I'm using Manchester City as my banker today.

Manchester City - Bolton Wanderers / 15 units
Bury - Macclesfield / 10 units
Swindon - Oldham / 10 units
Cardiff - Peterborough / 10 units
Rushden and D. - Eastbourne Borough / 10 units

EDIT
I'll add my own opinions on future bets, this is just a brag/sweat since I don't have time right now

On February 09 2010 07:38 lukeperry wrote: I'm using Manchester City as my banker today. Manchester City - Bolton Wanderers / 15 units Bury - Macclesfield / 10 units Swindon - Oldham / 10 units Cardiff - Peterborough / 10 units Rushden and D. - Eastbourne Borough / 10 units

What prices? What are these units?

On February 09 2010 07:32 RaiNKhAN wrote: for tomorrow I like the over on new york knicks/sacramento kings. Both these teams shoot threes like it's not even a real game, so you're usually not sweating the over in the 4th quarter as theyre on pace for a 240 point game by half time pretty often.

Is there a reason that you don't think everyone else knows this and is already priced in to the 213.5 line?

For instance, one might say that if all your casual observers expect it to be high scoring and will bet on the over, there might be blind value on the under. Not to be results oriented, but the superbowl might be a good example of this. Among recreational bettors, did you know many dying to get action on the under in that matchup of top offenses and great QB's? So why wasn't the line higher? Who is betting the under? I don't claim that the over wasn't still the better play and just took a bad beat, but the question still remains.

On February 09 2010 07:40 Cray0ns wrote: Show nested quote + On February 09 2010 07:38 lukeperry wrote: I'm using Manchester City as my banker today. Manchester City - Bolton Wanderers / 15 units Bury - Macclesfield / 10 units Swindon - Oldham / 10 units Cardiff - Peterborough / 10 units Rushden and D. - Eastbourne Borough / 10 units What prices? What are these units?

Guess I don't have to add my bets. Think of units as BB.

On February 09 2010 07:44 Cray0ns wrote: Show nested quote + On February 09 2010 07:32 RaiNKhAN wrote: for tomorrow I like the over on new york knicks/sacramento kings. Both these teams shoot threes like it's not even a real game, so you're usually not sweating the over in the 4th quarter as theyre on pace for a 240 point game by half time pretty often. Is there a reason that you don't think everyone else knows this and is already priced in to the 213.5 line? For instance, one might say that if all your casual observers expect it to be high scoring and will bet on the over, there might be blind value on the under. Not to be results oriented, but the superbowl might be a good example of this. Among recreational bettors, did you know many dying to get action on the under in that matchup of top offenses and great QB's? So why wasn't the line higher? Who is betting the under? I don't claim that the over wasn't still the better play and just took a bad beat, but the question still remains.

well I'm a fish at this b/c I don't think about things like that. for example parlays that I do are like a massive edge to the house so I dont really look to become an expert at sports betting, however in regards to the knicks over I just have been watching all the games for the past month so I have a feel for most of these picks rather than just going off pure stats alone. I mean if the knicks were playing the cavs, or celtics I wouldnt touch the over unless it's pretty low like 190 or less, get what i mean?

I find the NBA to be relatively difficult to pick. Teams just randomly perform so on and off. Sometimes you'll see a very good team as a small favorite over a bad team and they won't cover many of times and I just don't know why. One thing I have looked is how teams perform in back to back games. I saw Orlando hasn't been performing too well in away/homes and that trend continued today. Obviously, I am a newbie at this stuff and I end up using my instincts which are definitely not honed at all. In college, it seems like there is less variance. Home teams usually crush and as Crayons said, no one gives a damn about Darthmouth/Penn, so the line for that game is going to be set and that's it. In the NBA, there will likely be action that results in the changing of the lines to something more unfavorable. I think it's also easier to analyze matchups in college. Players in the NBA are all mostly very good and there is a chance anyone could step up. In college, the players aren't as good and I feel it's easier to rely on the team with superior players. I really have no idea what I'm saying, but when I do research in college, especially in conference play, teams play the same opponents within the last few weeks so looking at how each team performs against a common opponentis more valid than seeing how the Lakers did against the 76ers in October. I'm hoping Tenbagger or BJLNYK put in a word.

On February 09 2010 07:40 Cray0ns wrote: Show nested quote + On February 09 2010 07:38 lukeperry wrote: I'm using Manchester City as my banker today. Manchester City - Bolton Wanderers / 15 units Bury - Macclesfield / 10 units Swindon - Oldham / 10 units Cardiff - Peterborough / 10 units Rushden and D. - Eastbourne Borough / 10 units What prices? What are these units?

i believe they are units of his bankroll(some percentage)

On February 09 2010 08:05 lukeperry wrote: Show nested quote + On February 09 2010 07:40 Cray0ns wrote:   On February 09 2010 07:38 lukeperry wrote: I'm using Manchester City as my banker today. Manchester City - Bolton Wanderers / 15 units Bury - Macclesfield / 10 units Swindon - Oldham / 10 units Cardiff - Peterborough / 10 units Rushden and D. - Eastbourne Borough / 10 units What prices? What are these units? Guess I don't have to add my bets. Think of units as BB.

I know what a unit is, but you didn't clarify what units mean for you. What % of your bankroll is a unit? What is your range of units you bet on a single game? My biggest issue is that you listed a couple teams without prices?

Also, I don't really follow NBA as a whole too much. Im in the LP fantasy league and I watch the games on TV but I feel as if I don't have a great feel on the game. In the NBA, they'll end up showing the same few teams(Cle, Bos, Orl, Lal, Den, SA) so I don't even how the say, the Bulls or Heat really play. The college games on tv span all the major leagues, at least the major conferences, therefore creating a large pool of games across various areas of familiarity. They'll show any conference game with a top team barring a complete bottom feeder. Also, there are various games broadcasted on ESPN360 and Big 10 Network(at least for me). I just find there to be more exploitable college lines for these reasons.

On February 09 2010 08:25 Cray0ns wrote: Show nested quote + On February 09 2010 08:05 lukeperry wrote:   On February 09 2010 07:40 Cray0ns wrote:   On February 09 2010 07:38 lukeperry wrote: I'm using Manchester City as my banker today. Manchester City - Bolton Wanderers / 15 units Bury - Macclesfield / 10 units Swindon - Oldham / 10 units Cardiff - Peterborough / 10 units Rushden and D. - Eastbourne Borough / 10 units What prices? What are these units? Guess I don't have to add my bets. Think of units as BB. I know what a unit is, but you didn't clarify what units mean for you. What % of your bankroll is a unit? What is your range of units you bet on a single game? My biggest issue is that you listed a couple teams without prices?

When people post picks on other sites, most of the time they just make every pick 1 unit for the sake of easy record keeping.

On February 09 2010 08:06 RaiNKhAN wrote: Show nested quote + On February 09 2010 07:44 Cray0ns wrote:   On February 09 2010 07:32 RaiNKhAN wrote: for tomorrow I like the over on new york knicks/sacramento kings. Both these teams shoot threes like it's not even a real game, so you're usually not sweating the over in the 4th quarter as theyre on pace for a 240 point game by half time pretty often. Is there a reason that you don't think everyone else knows this and is already priced in to the 213.5 line? For instance, one might say that if all your casual observers expect it to be high scoring and will bet on the over, there might be blind value on the under. Not to be results oriented, but the superbowl might be a good example of this. Among recreational bettors, did you know many dying to get action on the under in that matchup of top offenses and great QB's? So why wasn't the line higher? Who is betting the under? I don't claim that the over wasn't still the better play and just took a bad beat, but the question still remains. well I'm a fish at this b/c I don't think about things like that. for example parlays that I do are like a massive edge to the house so I dont really look to become an expert at sports betting, however in regards to the knicks over I just have been watching all the games for the past month so I have a feel for most of these picks rather than just going off pure stats alone. I mean if the knicks were playing the cavs, or celtics I wouldnt touch the over unless it's pretty low like 190 or less, get what i mean?

I know you're honest to yourself about your reason for betting, which is more than a lot of people who think they really have a huge edge on picking winners. You certainly know a lot more about the NBA than I do, but that's exactly why I'd take the over when no one would touch it.

On February 09 2010 08:25 Cray0ns wrote: Show nested quote + On February 09 2010 08:05 lukeperry wrote:   On February 09 2010 07:40 Cray0ns wrote:   On February 09 2010 07:38 lukeperry wrote: I'm using Manchester City as my banker today. Manchester City - Bolton Wanderers / 15 units Bury - Macclesfield / 10 units Swindon - Oldham / 10 units Cardiff - Peterborough / 10 units Rushden and D. - Eastbourne Borough / 10 units What prices? What are these units? Guess I don't have to add my bets. Think of units as BB. I know what a unit is, but you didn't clarify what units mean for you. What % of your bankroll is a unit? What is your range of units you bet on a single game? My biggest issue is that you listed a couple teams without prices?

10 units is 1% of my bankroll. I never bet more than 20 units on a game but sometimes as low as 5 units, very rarely though. It's usually between 10 and 20.
The teams in bold are winners, I don't really play on anything else but 1X2. So the teams in bold for win at the amount of units behind the matchup.

On February 09 2010 08:27 acdawg712 wrote: Show nested quote + On February 09 2010 08:25 Cray0ns wrote:   On February 09 2010 08:05 lukeperry wrote:   On February 09 2010 07:40 Cray0ns wrote:   On February 09 2010 07:38 lukeperry wrote: I'm using Manchester City as my banker today. Manchester City - Bolton Wanderers / 15 units Bury - Macclesfield / 10 units Swindon - Oldham / 10 units Cardiff - Peterborough / 10 units Rushden and D. - Eastbourne Borough / 10 units What prices? What are these units? Guess I don't have to add my bets. Think of units as BB. I know what a unit is, but you didn't clarify what units mean for you. What % of your bankroll is a unit? What is your range of units you bet on a single game? My biggest issue is that you listed a couple teams without prices? When people post picks on other sites, most of the time they just make every pick 1 unit for the sake of easy record keeping.

I'm starting to feel like a troll, but I want to clarify that units are great. I'd love to know what games he feels more strongly about. But how am I supposed to know if he also makes 1 unit bets and these are games he really feels strongly about or if he also makes 100 unit bets and this is just a lean?

My bigger question is what line/price he liked on those games? Manchester City is at -215. Did he only like them at 1-1? Would he still be on Manchester City at -300?

The reason I'm not betting more than 10 units on the other games is that I'm not all that familiar with the lower leagues in England, I've only looked at the form, any injuries and versus stats on those. I'm banking City because they're ridiculously strong at home, even without Kompany and possibly Richards in the back. Bolton is missing key players and City would want to get all the points they can before the games vs Liverpool, Chelsea and Tottenham.

EDIT

I'd take City at -300 aswell, I'm very confident about that bet.

On February 09 2010 08:39 lukeperry wrote: Show nested quote + On February 09 2010 08:25 Cray0ns wrote:   On February 09 2010 08:05 lukeperry wrote:   On February 09 2010 07:40 Cray0ns wrote:   On February 09 2010 07:38 lukeperry wrote: I'm using Manchester City as my banker today. Manchester City - Bolton Wanderers / 15 units Bury - Macclesfield / 10 units Swindon - Oldham / 10 units Cardiff - Peterborough / 10 units Rushden and D. - Eastbourne Borough / 10 units What prices? What are these units? Guess I don't have to add my bets. Think of units as BB. I know what a unit is, but you didn't clarify what units mean for you. What % of your bankroll is a unit? What is your range of units you bet on a single game? My biggest issue is that you listed a couple teams without prices? 10 units is 1% of my bankroll. I never bet more than 20 units on a game but sometimes as low as 5 units, very rarely though. It's usually between 10 and 20. The teams in bold are winners, I don't really play on anything else but 1X2. So the teams in bold for win at the amount of units behind the matchup.

Betting 15-20 units on a game is pretty degen, even if your yield is sick (and its probably not) your risk of ruin is super high
Also betting on money lines only probably isnt a good idea, there are pretty big edges to be found in asian handicap lines

Im down 12k in sport bets this year so I obv know what Im talkin about

swings in sports r fun....always in action though =] made 35 units off the superbowl and a total of 80 units on the day on sunday. Granted I'm getting close to even since getting into sportsbetting back in november, but that was due to myself picking random teams w/o doing much researching and not knowing which ones were reliable cappers to listen to.

Now I have certain cappers that i'll tend to see who they'll pick and decide on which ones I like to follow or fade

NBA
Minnesota +7 (7.5U)
Denver -7 (10U)
Milwaukee -8 (7.5U)

NCAAB
Creighton -8 (20U)
Central Michigan +3 (7.5U)

will update more throughout the day possibly.

I am thinking about getting into sports betting and have done some research online about the terms and other junk.
Do you guys know any decent sites that have most used terms explained and that also show histories of bets and outcomes?
What sites do you use for your bets?
Thanks

I started betting NBA this season. For the past couple years, I was watching almost every single game on League Pass since I'm in a lot of fantasy leagues and I have a good chunk of money on those leagues anyway. I've done very well in fantasy leagues for quite some time and I felt as though I had an excellent understanding of the game and for player evaluation so I figured if I put some time and effort into it, I would be +EV.

I started by doing some research into basic math concepts. I think the Sagarin ratings are really simple to use, fairly accurate, easy to access and serve as a good starting point:

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/nba0910.htm

I think it is also important to have a spreadsheet or to use a calculator to figure out what the implied probabilities for the money line. I don't put as much weight on this as others do but it is still absolutely essential to at least know what the recent streaks are, how often certain teams have covered or hit the over, home/road losing streaks etc.

My main thing is I always try to identify factors that might not be well known by the general public and incorporated into the line. I started to bet on memphis a lot early in the season and that paid off huge. I was watching all their games and I didn't think most of the gambling public would be doing the same. My reasoning was that the lines would reflect public opinion that memphis has always been terrible and it would be difficult to account for the fact that they were actually playing some really good basketball without watching their games and having a good understanding of basketball. Case in point, I made a post on TeamLiquid and a well known NBA poster there responded to my post that Randolph was playing well by mocking me and saying "LOL Randolph". Most of the basketball public was probably thinking the same thing, but if you were actually watching the games and you understood basketball, you could tell that randolph was playing differently this year, he was hustling, playing defense and smart team basketball. The lines on Memphis now account for them being a winning team, but early in the year there were some really good lines and I made a killing on them. A similar line of reasoning that didn't turn out so well was with the wizards. They were losing a lot of very close games, and despite the fact that their record was terrible and they were not coming through in the clutch, they were not playing that badly. However, the line priced them in as a terrible team so I bet on them and while I lost a bunch and they continued to lose a ton of close games, I think it was the right play.

Sometimes I get too fancy and put too much trust in my analytical ability. For example, two bets that I placed recently. I bet the under on DET/NJ when the line was 186.5. That is an obscenely low O/U line but NJ was coming off a back to back, and devin harris was having wrist issues and there was talk about him struggling in the second game of a back to back. Harris had been shooting a terrible percentage and if harris was struggling to shoot, NJ's offense and prospects for the game itself were doomed. A good thing about a blow out is that teams don't foul like crazy at the end in a last ditch effort to try and come back so that bodes well for the under. I knew the math percentages were to never bet the under @ 186.5 but I decided I knew better and to go for it anyway. Devin Harris of course shot the ball well, DET went 7 for 7 from the 3 point line in the first half and I lost the bet.

Second bet that I regret is taking MIA moneyline @ +105 @ CHI. I actually liked CHI a lot and I had made a nice profit on them recently, most notably a win @ SA. But with Noah out, I thought that Wade would attack the rim and have no one to stop him. The Sagarin Ratings had them very close and with CHI with the home field advantage, +105 was actually a pretty bad line, but I made the bet anyway. I guess a lot of other people were factoring in Noah being out like I was and that was moving the line. Well, Wade ended up shooting 7 for 21 on mostly fadeaways, didn't really drive to the rim and CHI turned it on in the last few minutes to take the victory.

Finally, I just want to say that anyone interested in sports betting should check out the SBR forums and therx forum. They are kinda like the LP and 2+2 of sports betting and there is a wealth of information there. Also, everyone should check out matchbook.com. I just want to say that there is talk about them maybe being in trouble so I wouldn't rush to make a deposit yet. I actually requested a big withdrawal right after the super bowl, probably along with a ton of other people and I have my fingers crossed that I get my money. But if they do right the ship and prove a safe place to bet, then there is almost no reason to bet anywhere else since their lines are by far the best out there.

betting everythin on a single bookie is retarded, use betbrain.com to see which bookie offers the best odds for the game u wanna bet on, most of the time pinnacle and SBO offer the best odds for soccer

too bad pinny doesn't take US customers. matchbook has weak volumes on soccer and some of the smaller events, but for NBA and MLB, you can't beat them. Not even pinny will come close.

yea im totally clueless about american sports, didnt know that pinny didnt take us customers, sucks for you guys -.-

the sbr forums look pretty good. They confirm my thoughts on Vanderbilt -3 tonight. Vanderbilt is very good at home and recently beat Tennessee in very tough Knoxville. I think this is a pretty good pick. Georgetown -4 also looks like a good pick vs a weak Providence pick even though it is in Rhode Island. This is not the Providence team of old.

NBA it's looking like Utah is a good pick -5 at the clippers. Utah has been playing quite well recently. Wolves +7 is also well liked by people but I'm not betting that. I like to use a little instinct and hometown bias(76ers fan).

HOU/MIA 191 over

Utah ML -186

Dallas ML +256

Minnesota +7

I'm going against the tide with the Dallas bet but @ +256, the implied probability is 28% and I think even on the road vs Denver, Dallas is 30%+ to win. Their sagarin ratings are fairly close and I think the public is overreacting to denver's recent strong play and dallas' weak play. I usually don't play the spreads too much but I like the minny +7 bet. I know phily when they have won, have come by a decent margin, but I just don't think they have the firepower to blow teams out and Jefferson in the second half of the memphis game looked like his old self.

updated card, a little late due to bunch of the games starting at 4 and was navigating through 4 separate sites on placing wagers.


NBA
Minnesota +7 (7.5U)
Denver -7 (10U)
Milwaukee -8 (7.5U)
Miami -5.5 (6U)
Indiana -2 (7.5U)
Oklahoma City -1.5 (6U)
Washington +8.5 (7.5U)
Sacramento/New York o 214.5 (7.5U)


NCAAB
Creighton -8 (20U)
Central Michigan +3 (7.5U)
1H - VA Commonwealth/George Mason under 67 (5U)
Tennessee/Vandy U147 (10U)
1H - Tennessee/Vanderbilt under 69 (4U)
Boston College/Wakeforest U138 (10U)
Ohio -4.5 (7.5U)
1H - Western Michigan/Ohio under 66 (5U)
W Kentucky -2 (6U)
Purdue +3 (15U)
Providence +4.5 (5U)
Georgetown/Providence O157 (10U)
Evansville +10.5 (7.5U)
Colorado St. -1.5 (6U)


NHL:

Tampa Bay ML 130 (5U)
Nashville ML -135 (5U)
Detroit ML -133 (15U)
Boston ML 128 (5U)

On February 09 2010 11:34 MiPwnYa wrote: Show nested quote + On February 09 2010 08:39 lukeperry wrote:   On February 09 2010 08:25 Cray0ns wrote:   On February 09 2010 08:05 lukeperry wrote:   On February 09 2010 07:40 Cray0ns wrote:   On February 09 2010 07:38 lukeperry wrote: I'm using Manchester City as my banker today. Manchester City - Bolton Wanderers / 15 units Bury - Macclesfield / 10 units Swindon - Oldham / 10 units Cardiff - Peterborough / 10 units Rushden and D. - Eastbourne Borough / 10 units What prices? What are these units? Guess I don't have to add my bets. Think of units as BB. I know what a unit is, but you didn't clarify what units mean for you. What % of your bankroll is a unit? What is your range of units you bet on a single game? My biggest issue is that you listed a couple teams without prices? 10 units is 1% of my bankroll. I never bet more than 20 units on a game but sometimes as low as 5 units, very rarely though. It's usually between 10 and 20. The teams in bold are winners, I don't really play on anything else but 1X2. So the teams in bold for win at the amount of units behind the matchup. Betting 15-20 units on a game is pretty degen, even if your yield is sick (and its probably not) your risk of ruin is super high Also betting on money lines only probably isnt a good idea, there are pretty big edges to be found in asian handicap lines Im down 12k in sport bets this year so I obv know what Im talkin about

did you read the part where I said 10 units is 1% of my bankroll? kelly criterion etc.

<3 this thread I just got into sportsbetting as well and have been primarily doing NHL and a litttle NBA... Obv I dont know much about it but reading this thread and others will certainly help lol

Just a couple small bets tonight for me

NCAA

Purdue +3

NBA

OKC -1.5
Utah ML -197

On February 09 2010 16:56 TenBagger wrote: HOU/MIA 191 over Utah ML -186 Dallas ML +256 Minnesota +7 I'm going against the tide with the Dallas bet but @ +256, the implied probability is 28% and I think even on the road vs Denver, Dallas is 30%+ to win. Their sagarin ratings are fairly close and I think the public is overreacting to denver's recent strong play and dallas' weak play. I usually don't play the spreads too much but I like the minny +7 bet. I know phily when they have won, have come by a decent margin, but I just don't think they have the firepower to blow teams out and Jefferson in the second half of the memphis game looked like his old self.

looks like this guy is on his way to an 0-4 night. he's terrible, solid fade IMO.

and the overtime saves the over for rainkhan!

LOL how does HOU put up only 66 pts :/

my thinking on that bet was that the over/under line wasn't affected much by ariza being out of the game. However, ariza is a terrific defender and a terrible offensive player. He scores a decent amount but his overall offensive efficiency is terrible and I think houston will score more points with landry/budinger in the lineup. The double whammy, taking out his good defense and his bad offense led me to believe the over would be a good bet. =(

also, to everyone that posts their picks, I'm more interested in the reasoning behind it. If you guys would care to share, I'd love to see how people are thinking.

jamie, I got -186 for the ML on Utah on matchbook, thats a substantial difference.

On February 09 2010 18:24 Raidan wrote: updated card, a little late due to bunch of the games starting at 4 and was navigating through 4 separate sites on placing wagers. NBA Minnesota +7 (7.5U) Denver -7 (10U) Milwaukee -8 (7.5U) Miami -5.5 (6U) Indiana -2 (7.5U) Oklahoma City -1.5 (6U) Washington +8.5 (7.5U) Sacramento/New York o 214.5 (7.5U) NCAAB Creighton -8 (20U) Central Michigan +3 (7.5U) 1H - VA Commonwealth/George Mason under 67 (5U) Tennessee/Vandy U147 (10U) 1H - Tennessee/Vanderbilt under 69 (4U) Boston College/Wakeforest U138 (10U) Ohio -4.5 (7.5U) 1H - Western Michigan/Ohio under 66 (5U) W Kentucky -2 (6U) Purdue +3 (15U) Providence +4.5 (5U) Georgetown/Providence O157 (10U) Evansville +10.5 (7.5U) Colorado St. -1.5 (6U) NHL: Tampa Bay ML 130 (5U) Nashville ML -135 (5U) Detroit ML -133 (15U) Boston ML 128 (5U)

added La Clippers +5 for 7.5 units, and detroit ML was only 10 units and not 15. shootout now. gogo detroit

On February 09 2010 11:34 MiPwnYa wrote: Betting 15-20 units on a game is pretty degen, even if your yield is sick (and its probably not) your risk of ruin is super high Also betting on money lines only probably isnt a good idea, there are pretty big edges to be found in asian handicap lines Im down 12k in sport bets this year so I obv know what Im talkin about

ive read some pretty basic stuff on sportsbetting and i thought betting 1-2% of your br per bet is fine?

crap, vancouver/tampa bay NHL game didnt get the over so I missed out on an 80k parlay, also detroit/st. louis firing 4 goals in the 3rd after only having 2 total @ end of 2nd killed another ticket. on my last sweat:

okc -1.5, okc/portland over 191.5, utah -5, utah/lac under 203, colorado state -3 NCAAB, colorado stats/airforce over 118, and some random tennis game with euro donks took the massive fav -525

On February 09 2010 18:24 Raidan wrote: updated card, a little late due to bunch of the games starting at 4 and was navigating through 4 separate sites on placing wagers. NBA Minnesota +7 (7.5U) L Denver -7 (10U) W Milwaukee -8 (7.5U) L Miami -5.5 (6U) W Indiana -2 (7.5U) L Oklahoma City -1.5 (6U) Washington +8.5 (7.5U) W Sacramento/New York o 214.5 (7.5U) W La Clippers +5 (7.5U) NCAAB Creighton -8 (20U) W Central Michigan +3 (7.5U) L 1H - VA Commonwealth/George Mason under 67 (5U) L Tennessee/Vandy U147 (10U) L 1H - Tennessee/Vanderbilt under 69 (4U) L Boston College/Wakeforest U138 (10U) L Ohio -4.5 (7.5U) W 1H - Western Michigan/Ohio under 66 (5U) L W Kentucky -2 (6U) L Purdue +3 (15U) = W Providence +4.5 (5U) L Georgetown/Providence O157 (10U) L Evansville +10.5 (7.5U) W Colorado St. -1.5 (6U) NHL: Tampa Bay ML 130 (5U) W Nashville ML -135 (5U) L Detroit ML -133 (10U) L Boston ML 128 (5U) W

10-14 so far with 3 plays to go, down 18 units with posted plays though 13 overall due to a 5 unit teaser hitting. my totals for the night sucked balls lol

On February 09 2010 21:17 TenBagger wrote: jamie, I got -186 for the ML on Utah on matchbook, thats a substantial difference.

damn yeah that is pretty big, im using pinnacle always thought it was one of the better ones

pinnacle is def one of the better ones, but that doesnt mean it always has the best line for the team you're betting on. always best to have $ on several sportsbook so u can lineshop

On February 09 2010 07:32 RaiNKhAN wrote: the best I can give on here is my input on overs/unders. for tomorrow I like the over on new york knicks/sacramento kings. Both these teams shoot threes like it's not even a real game, so you're usually not sweating the over in the 4th quarter as theyre on pace for a 240 point game by half time pretty often. other than that, rest of my picks are: bulls/pacers over 202, OKC thunder -1, OKC/portland over 192, utah -4.5 vs clippers(home), georgetown -4, NHL nashville/NY islanders over 5.5, vancouver/tampa bay over 5.5

Good call on the Kings-Knicks game over 216 (although they needed the OT to get it). :-P

pinny generally has the best lines for a sportsbook but matchbook isnt a traditional bookie but rather an exchange. When you place a bet on matchbook, you aren't betting against the house but rather directly against another person. Instead of paying the "juice" or "vig" matchbook charges a flat 1% commission to those accepting bets and PAYS .2% credits to those offering bets. They do this to encourage people to make offers which in turn increases liquidity. If you are the one that is making offers that get accepted, not only are you paying zero vig, but it's the other way around, you are actually getting paid, albeit a tiny amount and in the form of credits.

as I mentioned before, the volumes on the smaller events are really thin so it can be tough getting bets booked, but for NBA, NFL, and MLB, volumes are pretty good and unless you are looking to bet very large amounts, you should have no problem getting your bets booked at a better line than any other sportsbook.

However, I want to remind everyone that matchbook recently got downgraded by SBR and there are rumors of them having trouble paying out all the withdrawals that happen after the super bowl so you might want to wait to deposit until that gets sorted out. I've got a decent sized roll there so I for one am praying that does not happen. All sports bettors though should be praying that matchbook survives and becomes financially strong and reputable because their format will drastically reduce the costs for everyone. The reduced vig can be the difference between a losing gambler and a winning gambler or a marginal winner and a big winner.

btw, 1% commission for accepted bets and .2% credit for offered bets works out to a net .8% commission which is an absolute bargain considering betfair charges 5% on their exchange.

BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOZZEEEEEEEERRRRRRRRRRRR

<3 on the over. glad you won rainkhan despite my heckling earlier.

good to see tenbagger in here.

Pinny has better prices a lot because they simply have lower vig but its also arguably sharper for the same reason and is one of the best books albeit not open to US anymore.

A solid 3-0 night. Nice call on Purdue, just missed out on betting that.

I found a freeroll opportunity on a soccer match this evening by spreading bets amongst sites

payouts:

-profit 2.380% of betsize
-breakeven
-profit 7.143% of betsize

so, choose your betsize and wait for the $$

lol, I wish I had 100k to spend, anyone interested ?

NHL Tonight

Hockey
Money Line Nashville Predators vs New York Rangers for Game -125 31.25 25.00

Nashville is coming off a back to back where they just lost to the islanders on the road and the rangers are fairly well rested coming off a big win against the Devils. King Henrik has also been better lately. Nashville is 2-6-2 in their last 10. A major downside is Marion Gaborik is a gametime decision :/

Hockey
Money Line New York Islanders vs Pittsburgh Penguins for Game -262 131.00 50.00

Islanders are also coming off a back to back beating Nashville and they are not a very good road team, shitty price to pay but for a team that is 2-8 in their last 10 going into Pittsburgh and beating Sid and Co will not be easy

Hockey
Money Line Edmonton Oilers vs Anaheim Ducks for Game -230 115.00 50.00

Again kind of a shitty price but Anaheim is soooo good at home, theyve won 10 straight at home and are going for a franchise record 11th in a row. Edmonton is just brutal this year especially on the road where they are 7-18-2.

yeah i use pinny
i bet everyday
i jumpoed on the utah train late last night 2 min before expirary time

Southern miss +8.5 vs tulsa -2/3 unit
Drexel 2/3 unit

nhl:
pitt - 4 units
ana - 2 units
nj - 2/3 unit

what size bets do people make here? like their 1 unit?

On February 10 2010 11:44 D_Zoo wrote: what size bets do people make here? like their 1 unit?

25 apparently lol...

I should prob just be using 10 though

So, the Jazz are the play of the night? They're only giving 5. Kobe still might play, tho, I see. Anyone like Phoenix to smoke Portland? Blazers are playing a back-to-back game (on the road) sometimes those get ugly (i.e., Dallas-Denver last night).

giving up 9 seems kinda shitty imo

On February 10 2010 12:39 Jamie217 wrote: giving up 9 seems kinda shitty imo

Phoenix has been playing well, lately, that's why, and Portland is without their best player (Roy). I dunno, this feels similar to last night's Dallas-Denver game (line was Denver -7 1/2), and that one was over by halftime.

Anyone on the NC-Duke game tonight? Tar Heels were getting 4 or 5 at home last I checked.

gonna b a small card today cause im heading off to play commerce so wont be placing too many bets
as of right now only two plays
NCAAB
NC + 5.5 (25U)

NBA
76ers +6 (5U)

updated bets


NHL

NYR -125 (2.5U)
PITT -261 (5U)
ANA -230 (5U)
NJ -150 (2.5U)
COL -168 (2.5U)


NCAA

Southern miss +8.5 (2.5U)
NC +5.5 (5U)

raidan ur betting 25 units? haha u crazy fuck

My NBA picks for tonight

CHA -2 (4U)
MIL -187 (4U)
PHI/TOR over 210 (2U)

im not touching that spread on the jazz/lakers game but I took the over , anyways I took magic -3.5 early last night (lol it's -5 now) for $1k, and two other $500 bets on bobcats -2, and bucks -5.5 @ nets


i got a ton of parlays too:

miami/ATL over 190.5,
76'ers +7, magic -4.5, over 5.5 nashville/rangers, san jose money line, philly/NJ devils under 5.5, the over on 5.5 ATL/colorado, anaheim money line

gogo bobcats and bucks

2 for 3 not bad, bobcats winning by 1 is wtf though, they were up by 15 end of 3rd lol

I should get into sports betting. It's such easy money it seems. Just always bet on KU winning in bball cuz they always will. Jayhawks pwn all. Looks like in the OP they were underdogs vs TX lol...

Kansas was actually -2 at Texas, which is a very small favorite.

I had a bad day, 2-5.
Ball State +14.5 Fail
Atlanta -7 Fail
Phoenix -9 Fail
Baylor -2.5 Fail (won by 2)
Northwestern -3 Fail
Lakers +5.5 Woot
Orlando -5 Woot

I didn't bet Duke -6 like I wanted but I also didn't bet Cuse -10 so we'll call that a wash.

I have New Mexico +5.5 at UNLV as well. They are up by 12 at halftime.

Why did my bets fail in college? All road teams. Gotta stop doing that. Tomorrow's the last slate of NBA games for a bit. Very good games in Orlando at Cleveland and SA at Denver. I like Cleveland to crush in the double digits. Orlando is not good in back to back games when the 2nd game is on the road, with a big loss to the Bulls. Denver is going to crush as well, playing at home with Carmelo back. I'm probably wrong so let's hear some thoughts. Tomorrow's college slate is uninteresting in terms of top 25 games.

I'm staring at my picks and wondering why the hell I picked Northwestern and Ball State. I'm gonna try to limit myself to 3-4 bets a day.

Hey everyone, what do you think about this system.

"System" #1

One of the oldest NCAAB systems around happens to be one of the most successful. It's one that most experienced sports bettors have heard of, but possibly didn't realize its success.

"System" #1 is simply wager on any unranked team that is favored at home over a ranked team. That's all there is to it. An example of this would be my posted play last night with #20 Northern Iowa @ (unranked) Wichita State. Unranked Wichita State was the favored (-3) home team vs. a ranked opponent. RESULT: Wichita State 60, #20 ranked Northern Iowa 51.

The rationale behind the system makes sense, as you're taking a good team, as evident by the fact that they are favored over one of the top 25 teams in the country, who is playing in front of the home fans. The team, along with its fans, tend to get up for these games, wanting to prove they are just as good than the ranked team. You can expect the home team to give its best effort.

Thats all there is to "System" #1, pretty simple.


"System" #2

The second part of the system, or "System" #2, that isn't as widely known, is to wager against these home teams in their next game if they did cover the point spread against the ranked team.

Unranked teams that do knock-off the ranked teams (Such as Wichita State as mentioned above) are ripe for a letdown in their next game, and are often spent emotionally, as well as physically, and many times have trouble getting up for its next opponent.

Thats as simple as it gets for the novice bettor or the experienced bettor who doesnt want to spend alot of time capping games or doesnt feel comfortable tailing others. This also gives you a set of guidlines to follow that have been around for a long time and is successfull year in and year out.

I think it is pretty good. I used to find myself going, 'Lol why is a favorite underdog vs an unranked team" and betting the ranked team.

System 1. Just ask yourself where the soft money goes. If you told a random guy at a bar that he could have 100 bucks if he picked the winner, chances are he too would pick the ranked team just like the writers/coaches who voted them higher in the polls. If a bet looks like a no brainer to everyone without a brain, then there's an inelastic demand created for their side of the bet. This system is saying that this "ranking" bias creates value on the other side. (i.e. if everyone wanted to bet on heads and no one wanted to bet on tails for a coin flip then the odds would eventually move off 1-1 so that there was value on tails. In reality the book would likely just offer worse odds on heads and pocket the change, and not ever allow +EV odds on tails of course)

This is why the polling system being such a huge component of the ncaaf BCS is laughable (especially when it can be determined on the field).

A recent example in ncaaf (take care to not be results oriented with a singular example obv) was unranked OU (6-5) hosting #12 Oklahoma State (9-2) this year. OU despite being ranked lower and with the much worse record were still 10 point favorites. All your talking heads ranked OSU much higher than OU, but the people doing real analysis and dropping big bucks on the game forced a double digit line in the other direction. To the untrained eye, one might have thought, wow I can take the higher ranked team AND get 10 points. Again, take care to not place too much credit in this singular result but OU did win 27-0.

If a bet looks too good to be true to the untrained eye, there very well may be value on the other side exactly for that reason. I've heard these games described as classic trap games. I personally don't like that name, it's as if the line was set to lure in idiots. The line was set because of the action and the estimated true strengths of the teams. No one is trapping anyone except for ourselves when we think a line looks soft enough to merit a bet without any real analysis.

Universally amongst pro cappers and unbiased power ratings OU was a favorite. Debates could be made about how much better and drove the action about +-10 and I don't propose that OU-10 was even the better bet despite the result. I only wish to point out that to an untrained eye, it might have been a surprise that OU was favored by 10 points as an unranked team facing the #12 team in the country and that polls are lol. I use this example because I specifically recalled a host on ESPN radio comment about how silly vegas lines were using this example before the game because clearly to him Ok State was better. How people still ignore the studies that show that the closing line is still the best predictor of outcomes out there is lol.

Great response. However, I feel that game between 2 known teams. When you get a game like the example of Northern Iowa at Witchita State, that game isn't nearly as known to bettors. Has the line moved a lot or will move a lot as soon as it becomes public?

On February 10 2010 13:28 Jamie217 wrote: updated bets NHL NYR -125 (2.5U) Loss PITT -261 (5U) Win ANA -230 (5U) Win NJ -150 (2.5U) Loss COL -168 (2.5U) Win NCAA Southern miss +8.5 (2.5U) Win NC +5.5 (5U) Loss

Meh shitty night, +5.4 Units overall

System #1 is the nuts for NCAA basketball. A simple way to look at it is that CRIS and The Greek (the openers) should have a much better 'power rating' than the BCS or especially the AP. If you go to www.donbest.com or www.covers.com and pick a major or mid-major conference over the last ten years and see how this system has done, you'll find that you're well above the 53% required.

System #2 I don't put as much stock in...and I actually read an interesting take on it by Alan Boston (of "the Odds" fame). Essentially he says in 2010, the travel/revenge/motivation affects young basketball players less because they have grown accustomed to it because of summer leagues, AAU and what not. So in spots where normally a team can be expected to fall flat on their face, they've actually played well (see: Bruce Pearl's Tennessee Volunteer team a few times this year).

One thing I have noticed in the last few years is that if you're going to bet a road team in the NCAA, bet one that is -10 or higher lol (I'm totally serious). For example, Butler is -13 at Youngstown State. Very clearly, Butler is the cream of the Horizon League [they'd be between 16-18 points over Youngstown on a neutral court, so there is a massive talent difference here]. I'd have to go back and double check, but I'm pretty sure this subset [NCAA road favorites lined games >10 conference play] is a winner over a large sample.
I think where the casual bettor gets boned in the ass is the small road favorite (-3 to -6), because the mentality is "it's only 3 or 4 points on the road....they can cover this easy."

Opinions on this Magic-Cavaliers game tonight? Orlando dominated Cleveland last year in the playoffs, so, maybe a revenge thing going on, here? Took a small piece of Orlando on the moneyline, however, cuz they're a 2-1 dog, but, I dunno. There are a million college games today, too.

Picks of the Night:
Cleveland -6.5 vs Orlando
Denver -5.5 vs San Antonio
Gonzaga -6 vs St Marys
California -5 vs Washington

I'm not certain on Cleveland, seems like a lot people like Orlando to flat out win. Denver has been crushing at home and Spurs have been struggling recently. Gonzaga is playing at home vs a good St. Mary's team without Patty Mills. They have already won vs St Mary's on the road. Washington is terrible on the road. California is solid at home and is out for revenge after their loss at Washington.

On February 11 2010 19:07 acdawg712 wrote: Picks of the Night: Cleveland -6.5 vs Orlando Denver -5.5 vs San Antonio Gonzaga -6 vs St Marys California -5 vs Washington I'm not certain on Cleveland, seems like a lot people like Orlando to flat out win. Denver has been crushing at home and Spurs have been struggling recently. Gonzaga is playing at home vs a good St. Mary's team without Patty Mills. They have already won vs St Mary's on the road. Washington is terrible on the road. California is solid at home and is out for revenge after their loss at Washington.

i took denver and cavs as well too, also butler @ youngstown ncaab.hmph not many games today

jamie how is being up money a shitty day ;D

yeah Rain I already yelled at Jamie aobut that haha
i Had a good night

cle-orl i went back and forth so stayed away from it

all star break in basketball is the signal to get ready for baseball!

go figure the 2 picks i am least sure about win and my highest pick of the Nuggets look terrible so far. Gonzaga is up in the air. I'd be happy with 3-1.

denver is such garbage

they should get +20 for every game they play, billups sucks ever since he started appearing in pictures with poker players

NHL:
Cls -109
Minny -168
Mon vs Phi o5.5 +111

NCAA:
Princeton -13.5
NO COL -200
Pitt +3
Montana -1

PGA
Johnson vs Trahan -156 (2nd round)

and obligatory futures bet on Canada to win gold in hockey at +136

On February 11 2010 19:09 RaiNKhAN wrote: [ jamie how is being up money a shitty day ;D

I just want to win them allllll!!!!!

Gonna be bored out of my mind with no NBA for a few days.

I don't know jackshit about NCAA these days but I trust D_Zoo's luckbox

1 unit each on Princeton, Pitt, Montana.

those princeton egggheads better come thru

got all the EPL we need, who wants NBA anyway?

Hey Dzoo have u placed ur bet on pitts yet? if not the line moved down to +2.5 for pitts and we can bet vig free. lemme know.

hey man yeah i already have it down

solid start for Princeton =(

got the over on pitts/WVU, and siena -4(FUCK) LOL

epic fail on Siena myself. I can't believe what just happened in the Pitt game. 90% FT shooter misses the clinching FT and WV makes a long 3 to tie in OT. Then again WV was up by 9 with 1 min to go.

damn ac. I took over on pitts/WVU 126.5 so i won that but lost w/ siena for a small profit

pitt game was pretty sick

ten u rode my luckbox but my biggest bet was on No Colorado for NCAA and smallest on Princeton Eggheads

my NHL teams hated me and all choked. they were all winning then i watched the opening ceremonies for Olympics and came back and they all lost like the whores they are

the moneylines for some of the more smaller market teams in NCAA don't get competitive on matchbook until right before the start of the game. At the time I booked the other bets, the line on the NO COL game was even worse than thegreek. I was planning on coming back right before tipoff at which point, the spread on matchbook would most likely have converged to a few cents, but I forgot to come back. Oh well, I'll take one unit profit, thx dzoo! =)

It's like I refuse to pay for 10 cent lines anymore just on principle, I just feel like I'm getting ripped off. Once you get used to the one or two cent lines on matchbook, you can never go back.

-6.5 Michigan State at Penn State W
-9.5 Clemson vs Miami L
-2 Indiana State vs Drake
-1 Texas Tech vs Texas A+M

I was planning on betting this Slam Dunk Contest because I thought Shannon Brown would be the 3rd or 4th biggest underdog, but, damn, he's the favorite:

Shannon Brown +125

Gerald Wallace +350

Nate Robinson +300

Demar Derozan +275

Maybe this Derozan dude's worth a shot? Never heard of him but he must be half decent to make the final four out of nowhere.

lol, they even have odds on the "HORSE" game:

Kevin Durant +102

Rajon Rondo +275

Omri Casspi +260

On February 13 2010 13:49 Raid wrote: I was planning on betting this Slam Dunk Contest because I thought Shannon Brown would be the 3rd or 4th biggest underdog, but, damn, he's the favorite: Shannon Brown +125 Gerald Wallace +350 Nate Robinson +300 Demar Derozan +275 Maybe this Derozan dude's worth a shot? Never heard of him but he must be half decent to make the final four out of nowhere.

derozan is a rookie for the raptors they took him 7th (?) overall in the last draft... has pretty good hops

took baylor -4, cincinnati +6.5 richmond -3 and washington NHL -220 vs st. louis so far 2-1 pending on washington

Anyone like this small futures bet (or do you think those odds are crap)? I was thinking of buying a little more, too, as the odds might get worse if they somehow get Amar'e Stoudemire.

Wager details for ticket number 30015862-1:

Wager Type: Future/Prop
Wager Status: Pending
Risk / To Win Amount: $250.00 / $512.50 (USD) Accepted 2/8/2010 1:33 AM - EST

Line: Basketball Futures
2009 -10 NBA Championship Title
Odds to win
1001 Team to win the 2009-10 NBA Championship 2/28/2010 8:59:00 PM - (PST)
Cleveland Cavaliers 205

also took kentucky -10 and wake -3. Also put a small parlay on both them. 4-2 not bad.
19-11 this week.

went 3-2 today, showing a small profit for the week so far

Most like betting 2-4 games

Definitely betting Syracuse -8.5 vs Louisville

Most likely betting Georgetown -11 at Rutgers
Northwestern +1 vs Minnesota

Considering Illinois +1.5 vs Ohio State

i like the syracuse bet my man!
also bet georgetown

I just bet a shitton (was sport bet tilted) on Sweden to win their divison/group in mens hockey
GO SWEDEN

they need to beat the evil Finns

wow louisville might pull off the upset.

I'm so sad with no NBA games. I'll follow the crowd here, 2 units on georgetown and 1 on Northwestern.

styracuse is dead to me

I have Georgetown for 2.5 units and UCLA for 2.5 as well

I tried to bet a bunch on syracuse but was 1 min too late (game had started)... I guess Im running pretty hot already aha

I bet 8 games today and made $30 gotta love going 4-4 with one game paying some odds hehe, but winning the 215 hu made it big day

On February 15 2010 01:15 RaiNKhAN wrote: I bet 8 games today and made $30 gotta love going 4-4 with one game paying some odds hehe, but winning the 215 hu made it big day

congrats khan

Im pretty sure I'm taking Fairfield -1 at Manhattan

I'm not sure about Kansas - 7.5 at Texas A&M yet.

No play for me on Uconn +9.5 at Nova.

Anyone think either of those ESPN games (UConn-Villanova and Kansas-Texas A & M) today will be competitive? They shouldn't be, when you look at the numbers, but, neither feels like a lock, especially after Jim Calhoun publicly berated his team's last effort and A & M, well, they have yet to lose on their home court.

On February 14 2010 12:14 D_Zoo wrote: i like the syracuse bet my man! also bet georgetown I just bet a shitton (was sport bet tilted) on Sweden to win their divison/group in mens hockey GO SWEDEN they need to beat the evil Finns

good bet! they wont let you down!

On February 15 2010 09:46 Raid wrote: Anyone think either of those ESPN games (UConn-Villanova and Kansas-Texas A & M) today will be competitive? They shouldn't be, when you look at the numbers, but, neither feels like a lock, especially after Jim Calhoun publicly berated his team's last effort and A & M, well, they have yet to lose on their home court.

Exactly how I feel. Public definitely likes Texas A&M though. Another decent pick could be Maryland -9 vs Virginia.

Looks like Jim Calhoun must've chewed his squad out after that last game cuz they're playing pretty good right now. Maybe a small 2nd half bet on the Huskies? I took a little bit on both dogs but, now that you say the public's on A & M, maybe I should hedge. (lol)

Took a piece of UConn 2nd half +6 1/2 and a lil of your Maryland -9, acdawg. Let's get some!

nice picks for both of us so far, Raid. Do you have Kansas or TAM?

My final picks were
Fairfield -2
Maryland -9
Kansas -6.5(-105)

I'm looking at my picks in the last 2 weeks and I'm like 1-8 when picking the -105 side. Games on Bodog are -110 with the lines occasionally shifting to to -115 and -105. I guess it's a sign lol. If Kansas doesn't cover tonight, I've learned my lesson.

On February 15 2010 20:54 acdawg712 wrote: nice picks for both of us so far, Raid. Do you have Kansas or TAM?

lol, I have both. I have A & M +7 1/2 and Kansas -7 (so, it'd be perfect if Kansas wins by exactly 7). Also played A & M at the half, +3 1/2. Might get some on the home team for the second half as it seems like the underdogs are coming through today.

PS Damn, Maryland killed em. Good call there, acdawg.

I'd like to thank TenBagger for posting the sbr and therx forums. They are very useful. I have found a couple cappers I like and, while I don't tail anyone, my research usually confirms their picks.

ugh that was close. I hope you had more money on T A+M. You mentioned you would hedge after I mentioned public liked TAM. That means you had money on TAM originally?

On February 15 2010 22:14 acdawg712 wrote: ugh that was close. I hope you had more money on T A+M. You mentioned you would hedge after I mentioned public liked TAM. That means you had money on TAM originally?

Yeah, I had A & M on three bets and on a two team parlay (as the last proposition), so, I hedged a little bit and took Kansas (so, ended up not winning as much). Still regret not taking UConn on the moneyline, too.

There's a game tomorrow (Kentucky vs. Mississippi State) that's very similar to today's Kansas-Texas A & M matchup (high ranked team on the road vs. a hot home team). Mississippi State is around + 2 1/2 atm, so, I was wondering if you guys had any opinions on that (or any other games tomorrow, for that matter, cuz the NBA is back in action, as well).

GG today, fellas.

Id tak miss st if line is 9 or more If vtech is favorite vs wake forest I'd take them as a system pick. Well see later about NBA.

lmfao Kentucky is -2.5. I don't see how you don't snap that one. VT is indeed -5.5 so I'm probably taking that. For some reason, Texas Tech is +11 at Baylor which is absurd as well.

Quick leans for NBA
Dallas +3.5 at OKC
Memphis -1 vs PHO
Boston -6 at SAC

To be honest, I don't like many games tomorrow at all. I do like Dallas given their success vs OKC this year. Memphis has been good vs Phoneix at home recently. Boston has struggled as well but is way better than Sactown.

u got msn man?

Final thoughts for the night: People like Portland(-6) vs Clippers, Miami (+2) at 76ers, Utah (-2.5) at Houston. I don't really love them, but I think Portland is a decent pick. On the forums, people warn about teams fading and such after the break. I guess sitting back and watching for a couple days is a good idea.

For college, plenty of people like the opposite sides of me, liking Wake and Miss St. I may end up taking only Dallas and Texas Tech tomorrow.

D_Zoo, I do not have msn. I have AIM tho, acdawg712. If really like what I have to say, I can create an MSN.

NBA is back!

My plays for tonight:

MIA Heat +122 (4u)
MEM Grizz -101 (4u)
Min/Det u197.5 (2u)
Dal/Okl u195 (2u)

are you guys even winning at sportsbetting?

=)

On February 16 2010 13:06 TenBagger wrote: NBA is back! My plays for tonight: MIA Heat +122 (4u) MEM Grizz -101 (4u) Min/Det u197.5 (2u) Dal/Okl u195 (2u)

Yeah, I got some on Miami, that seems to be everyone's pick tonite. I was a sucker, tho, and took Charlotte. That Memphis line seems like a trap, too, almost like they want the world to take the Grizz (but, I did anyway, lol).

Good thing I didn't play any of my leans.
Miss St. +3.5
Utah +2.5
Portland -6.5

what BS in the Miss St game. O well, 1-1 and Portland looking ok.

On February 16 2010 13:23 SpasticInk wrote: are you guys even winning at sportsbetting? =)

DIE!

haha jk...had a rough last week. did well in JAN though


Yeah AC Miss got screwed but I went Kentucky (which I thought u were saying u were going last night) so I was happy.

haha yea my leans were terribile and looking through the forums and further analysis showed my leans were bad which they ended up being. There is a system I like that chose Miss St. This is the system:

1) Does the team lack public backing? Yes - 22%
2) Is the game featuring two prominent teams? Yes
3) Does Pinnacle have the best number on the board for the opponent? Yes -2.5 (-105)
4) Does SIA have the best number on the board for my team? Yes - +3.5 (-105)
5) Is there reverse line movement at Pinnacle (optional)? No movement

I'm not going to look at tonight's lines till later most likely.

On February 16 2010 23:15 acdawg712 wrote: haha yea my leans were terribile and looking through the forums and further analysis showed my leans were bad which they ended up being. There is a system I like that chose Miss St. This is the system: 1) Does the team lack public backing? Yes - 22% 2) Is the game featuring two prominent teams? Yes 3) Does Pinnacle have the best number on the board for the opponent? Yes -2.5 (-105) 4) Does SIA have the best number on the board for my team? Yes - +3.5 (-105) 5) Is there reverse line movement at Pinnacle (optional)? No movement I'm not going to look at tonight's lines till later most likely.

U got any info regarding this Central Michigan-Ball St. game tonight? I was thinking of gettin some down on Ball State as a home underdog. Also, that UNLV-Utah game is attractive because the Rebels lost to the Utes on their home court and now they have to travel to Utah as a road favorite (or, maybe it's another trap by the linesmakers?).

I really like the Hawks -6 tonight. The Clippers are pretty bad overall, and don't fair great in back to backs.

I don't know much about the CMU-Ball St game. I'll post if I see anything.

Any thoughts on Pistons +11 at Orlando and Ohio State -3 vs Purdue? Pistons are tradtionally very good vs Orlando, even this year they kept the game close. I like Ohio State because they are very strong at home and have been playing well recently.

PHO -4.5 (4u)
CHI -120 (3u)
HOU +220 (2u)
Pho/Dall u217.5 (2u)
Min/Wash u204.5 (3u)

On February 17 2010 10:42 acdawg712 wrote: I really like the Hawks -6 tonight. The Clippers are pretty bad overall, and don't fair great in back to backs. I don't know much about the CMU-Ball St game. I'll post if I see anything. Any thoughts on Pistons +11 at Orlando and Ohio State -3 vs Purdue? Pistons are tradtionally very good vs Orlando, even this year they kept the game close. I like Ohio State because they are very strong at home and have been playing well recently.

Yeah, Clippers suck, and, now, no Marcus Camby (although that big white dude, Kaman, can ball). I like Ohio St., too, but I'd like em even more if they weren't the favorite. Damn, that Ball St. line went to even, now. I shoulda took em at +1 1/2. Some of you guys' picks look pretty good, actually. I may steal some of em. :-P

I have picked
atl -6
osu -3
Temple -6 @ St. bonny St bonny is pretty terrible, not any better at home either.

Another interesting pick is West Virginia -7.5 @ Providence but I think I will lay off the big east for now but I think WVU is a good lean.

Ball St., Ohio St., and U of Utah for me. Good luck, fellas.

tenbagger dont u mean +4.5 and +120 for the PHO/chicago games

On February 17 2010 18:04 RaiNKhAN wrote: tenbagger dont u mean +4.5 and +120 for the PHO/chicago games

ye i noticed this as well lol