10/20 Joe in trouble reading opponents hand

Submitted by : Joe

** Watching TV 2 [Holdem] (10|20 NL - Cash Game) Real Money
linmao sitting in seat 1 with €2090.00
Joeik4 sitting in seat 2 with €2831.00
kriga sitting in seat 3 with €2000.00
Gannic92 sitting in seat 4 with €658.10
CoolieHigh sitting in seat 5 with €1970.00[Dealer]
lu_cky sitting in seat 6 with €2378.00
lu_cky posted the small blind - €10.00
linmao posted the big blind - €20.00

Holecards
   
Joeik4 raised to €60.00
kriga folded
Gannic92 folded
CoolieHigh called - €60.00
lu_cky folded
linmao folded

Flop (Pot : $150.00)

   
Joeik4 checked
CoolieHigh checked

Turn (Pot : $150.00)

   
Joeik4 bet - €110.00
CoolieHigh raised to €480.00

what's your image at the table ?
Did he seem sticky postflop in some other hands he was involved in before ?

I sadly did not notice any big hands of him.
My image is quite aggro, I have been playing about 26/22/8 pf at that table so far and already got caught bluffing postflop a few times.

What the hell is your plan on the flop? check/call, check/raise, what?

You seem like the type of guy who is just going to c/f these flops. So if he wanted to bluff he would have just bet the flop. Therefore he has some hand with value it in I would guess these are limited to 2s, 3s and A2s. I can't really see any other hand that would check back flop and not bet for value/protection/bluff and raise turn. If my first assumption is wrong and you like to c/r a decent amount here then it's possible he has 54s, spades or some random junk like 66 turned into a bluff but he might just flat spades and fold his junk so I think even in this case you are still looking at mostly value hands which beat AK.

On December 13 2009 18:07 Twisted wrote: What the hell is your plan on the flop? check/call, check/raise, what?

check/raise, but thats not what i want to discuss.

On December 13 2009 18:10 Joe wrote: Show nested quote + On December 13 2009 18:07 Twisted wrote: What the hell is your plan on the flop? check/call, check/raise, what? check/raise, but thats not what i want to discuss.

Ok, because I would think check/call or check/fold would be horrendous on this board.

Anyway, your hand is face-up (i.e. you have an ace). I think it's really FPS to try to get you off one because no-one likes to fold in this spot. That said if he does raise here with a good balanced range and knows you're in a shit spot I don't think I could fold.

This all depends on history between you and him. It's impossible for us to give him a range because we don't play with the guy. If he's valueraising you beat nothing. If you have no history it's safe to assume that he's strong and you should fold imo.

Or look at it this way. If he is raising junk here like 66, why wouldn't he want to go to war on the flop with it instead of on the turn when the ace strengthens your range.

Since we don't know much about his tendencies, its hard to know how much of his range hes value-betting/protecting/semi-bluffing/bluffing on this flop. This makes it hard to deduce how much of his range he can still have on the turn. I would guess it is still quite wide. Due to the nature of the stakes and given stats, he is likely very capable of semi-bluffing/bluffing the turn, especially after you checked a fairly dry flop oop with the initiative.


22,33,TT (9 combos), 45s (4 combos), and A2s/A3s (3 combos) are all we're behind right now, and A2/A3s and 45s are speculative, as well as him checking back sets on the flop (although he probably will do this, no idea how often though), and not 3betting TT pf.

The worst hands I could see him raising for value are like AQ (6 combos), maybe AsJs(1 combo), and like As5s or As4s (2 combos).

For his value range, disregarding speculation, hes going to have ~25 combos he could value raise with. I would assume its much less.

Given the little specific information we have regarding his postflop game, I think we can assume his range is still quite wide here going into the turn.

Not entirely sure what to think about his timing. I do feel he may be bluffing a bit more in response to you're timing. His sizing on the turn seems fairly standard given stacks, no?

P.S., I apologize for posting here since I don't play high stakes, but I think my assumptions are sound. Interested to hear what you have to say!

I am trying to figure out what kind of pf calling range villain could have here. Certainly lots of small/mid pairs, maybe some suited connectors, dunno about suited broadways.

Did you notice any kind of dynamic from the blinds that may influence his pf calling range? i.e, light 3betting blinds, or a fish in the blinds

On December 13 2009 17:06 Joe wrote: I sadly did not notice any big hands of him. My image is quite aggro, I have been playing about 26/22/8 pf at that table so far and already got caught bluffing postflop a few times.

8 of aggro factor, or 3bet% ?
with your image, i'd fast-fold the turn raise, without history.
(I'm just a 2/4 player, so take it from what it's worth).

His value range is just so narrow here, and I really don't feel like this is the type of spot "he's never bluffing" in. Shouldn't we assume villain could be doing this because he expects Joe to cb a % of his missed Ax hands, making it a bit less likely he has an ace. There are very few hands in Joe's range that could withstand a turn raise, especially with him being oop. If he knows this, wouldn't this a good spot to either raise turn or call turn/bluff river?

On December 13 2009 19:20 sooon2b wrote: His value range is just so narrow here, and I really don't feel like this is the type of spot "he's never bluffing" in. Shouldn't we assume villain could be doing this because he expects Joe to cb a % of his missed Ax hands, making it a bit less likely he has an ace. There are very few hands in Joe's range that could withstand a turn raise, especially with him being oop. If he knows this, wouldn't this a good spot to either raise turn or call turn/bluff river?

But why making an auto-raise then ?
Seems to me he would have thought a little bit, had he put Joe on some hand ranges and stuff.

when things make very little sense like this you should probably tend to click the call button

His raise is almost 5x, that seems a bit much just to get some value out of a made hand... Maybe your hand is really face-up and he wants to shit on you?

On December 13 2009 18:09 LazyFisH wrote: You seem like the type of guy who is just going to c/f these flops. So if he wanted to bluff he would have just bet the flop. Therefore he has some hand with value it in I would guess these are limited to 2s, 3s and A2s. I can't really see any other hand that would check back flop and not bet for value/protection/bluff and raise turn. If my first assumption is wrong and you like to c/r a decent amount here then it's possible he has 54s, spades or some random junk like 66 turned into a bluff but he might just flat spades and fold his junk so I think even in this case you are still looking at mostly value hands which beat AK.

best advice imo.

there were easier ways to bluff in this hand this is by far the most FPS. Though possible, if hes knows what level you'd think on and is exploiting that however I dont see him not just betting the flop

that's A3s or A2s so often lol

btw fwiw if i knew the player was good i think this could be a nice bluff spot but the only hands i could find myself bluffing with are like 44 or 55 that im turning into bluffs that i didn't just bet to protect myself in the first place. i doubt many people have a hand in this spot to even bluff with most of the time

On December 14 2009 02:20 Fayth wrote: that's A3s or A2s so often lol

Only 3 combos of it... :-