QcJc by n0rthf4ce

Submitted by : n0rthf4ce

PokerStars Game #35991117700: Holdem No Limit ($10/$20 USD) - 2009/11/28 22:19:10 ET
Table Geminid III 6-max Seat #1 is the button
Seat 1: nanonoko ($2911 in chips)
Seat 2: DerekJC9954 ($2029 in chips)
Seat 3: veippa ($2935 in chips)
Seat 4: p3achy_keen ($2377 in chips)
Seat 5: imeasy2read ($1970 in chips)
Seat 6: Gith ($2693 in chips)
DerekJC9954: posts small blind $10
veippa: posts big blind $20

Holecards(Odds)
Dealt to p3achy_keen
p3achy_keen: raises $40 to $60
imeasy2read: folds
Gith: folds
nanonoko: calls $60
DerekJC9954: folds
veippa: calls $40

Flop(Odds) (Pot : $190.00)

   
veippa: checks
p3achy_keen: bets $140
nanonoko: calls $140
veippa: folds

Turn(Odds) (Pot : $470.00)

   
p3achy_keen: checks
nanonoko: bets $320
p3achy_keen: calls $320

River (Pot : $1,110.00)

   
p3achy_keen: checks
nanonoko: bets $620
p3achy_keen: calls $620

Showdown
nanonoko: shows (three of a kind, Sevens)
p3achy_keen: mucks hand
nanonoko collected $2347 from pot

Summary
Total pot $2350 | Rake $3
Board  
Seat 1: nanonoko (button) showed and won ($2347) with three of a kind, Sevens
Seat 2: DerekJC9954 (small blind) folded before Flop
Seat 3: veippa (big blind) folded on the Flop
Seat 4: p3achy_keen mucked
Seat 5: imeasy2read folded before Flop (didnt bet)
Seat 6: Gith folded before Flop (didnt bet)

On November 28 2009 23:56 RaSZi wrote: seems like your whole first paragraph is to not make the call look bad. Nanoko spewmonkeys a ton, but not in this spot imo. He seems to view a lot of hands independently and not goes on recent history as much,

well yea, the reason i called was influenced by what i wrote in the 1st paragraph. what you said makes a lot of sense tho, thx

I like to use this hand as a bluffcatcher on turn if we're supposed to have a c/c range there because it's one of very few hands that actually includes a fd which we can have if the river flushes. As for the river I don't play stars so I have no idea about this guy except what I've heard/read but I feel it depends a ton on how much he flat calls pf and with what hands in combination with how he likes to play different kinds of draws on the flop. Assuming that he's not flatting monsters on the flop very often and 3bets JJ+ at least a fair amount of the time his valuerange can't be that big (say 1/3rd of the sets; i:e 2-3 combos, a couple of combos of overpairs, maybe one combo of 76s, 2 of 87s, 2 of T9s and 2-3 of the low straight + all the jacks which is a few). So say around 20-25ish comobs if he has all the suited connectors in his pf range, which I don't know.

The problem is that there's very few missed fd's that makes sense, even if he's conservative with raising the flop and most of the straight draws either hit or picked up a pair so for this to be a call given pot odds he has to continue with his bluffs a very high % of the time on the river with this bet size (which I feel is doubtful, even if the sizeing makes a fair bit of sense considering how neither on of you "should" have a very strong range), turn a lot of stuff into bluffs or float a ton. I don't think the sizeing on the river indicates any of the last two, but that's to player dependant for me to comment on.

So what I'm saying is that unless you've got reason to believe that he plays really weird this is probably a closeish fold just because of how his river bet size isn't really consistent with a bluff that he planned from the flop and forward, but that could of course just be leveling. First time I'd probably call out of confusion and try to develop some kind of feel for him. From this I would conclude that he's probably, and again just a first impression, slightly less concerned about being GTO and that kind of concepts and probably just take a note to make sure that I pay attention to that.

As for the turn I would've bet/called rather then bet/folded if I were to bet but I much prefer the c/c line, since it would fit really good into an overall game plan, unless he did the call flop raise turn fairly light/wide a lot, in which case it would get into my bet/shove range I think.

I don't see what he even CAN be bluffing the river with after calling pre, then flatting the flop 3 way, ATcc? Turning 98s or 99 into a bluff? I dunno he flats a lot preflop but I don't think he's super wide here, and most of his flatting range here is gonna be suited connectors that connected well on this flop and turn combination, and pocket pairs some of which are sets and the others he most likely just checks back the turn with anyway. There are some draws but a lot of the flush draws can be discounted because you have the Q and J, his other flush draws either just made a straight or would've played faster on the flop (98cc) and I especially don't see him bluffing with that river bet size, I mean he almost certainly puts you on some kind of 1 pair hand, would he really bet like 60% pot if he wanted you to fold a top pair type hand? He's a very good player and all and capable of levelling to some degree obviously but when it comes down to it, I think this betsizing is very telling and there isn't even that much he can have at this point that he can bluff with.

Also what raszi and you said in your original post, his preflop antics don't really have anything to do with this spot which obviously you know but disregarded in this spot

I dont like seeing results before analysis i think it biases the replies, that said I agree w what most people say unless he floats a lot u are prolly beat

is it better for nanonoko to flat here with set instead of raise?
if he flats with set, he saying you are high % shit with your cbet. So shouldn't he be reraising your cbet with a wide % bluff range/
shouldn't he have a wide bluff raising range on this flop?

i agree with midian completely. i think the vast majority of the time youre going to see 88, 87, slowplayed set or possibly even 45 or a floated T9. its really hard to imagine a hand you beat besides a very rare occurrence of TT/99/98 turning themselves into a bluff, but in that case i think he would have bet more and really hes checking these hands down almost always.

almost every flush draw is either a combo draw or overcards on the flop and would probably just raise get it in except for some random Axcc combos like ATcc, A8cc, A9cc, A5cc, A4cc, A3cc, A2cc, but theres a chance some of those even raise flop and get it in cause of the power of the nut draw.

really i dont see too much you beat and i take same line as dusty. bet, c/c, c/f. like his reasoning as well cause our checking range on the turn is generally very weak hands and semibluffs we are c/r

I was thinking pretty much c/c and c/f river when you first posted then hand, even though I have never really played with nanonoko I'd feel a player like that would never vbet worse there

The river call combined with the turn c/c doesnt make any sense to me, I think once you take this line and brick out on the river you gotta fold as there really arent make bluff or worse value hands if any.

sweet, looks like a slamdunk fold

Just curious, if the board bricks turn and river, 3s,2s then would you guys still advocate check-folding river?
Also, on this board, are we check folding river with KJcc?,

well raszi everyone does stupid shit every now and then, results speaks for themselves, nanonoko has to be very solid whatsoever...

Nanonoko will ship 86s pf and stuff like that, but he is never making a silly move here on the river, all 2 pair combos are out there, floating everything just connected and he is never valuebetting JT