2nd NFD + gutter oop 4way vs FastEddie

Fasteddie is a pretty loose 5/10 reg that has owned my soul for awhile, mostly at 2/4 and 3/6. I think his range here is all suited connectors and 1 gappers, J9s+ and KJo+.

I'm a little lost on the turn. I think if I c/r allin I end up getting it in bad too often. I can't see him ever bet folding a jack. I'm really not sure how he plays a draw when checked to here, which is probably the key to playing it well. I'm guessing he checks them behind, anticipating a c/r from me. I think he'd bet/call with 9xdd and of course 78.

If i bet 3/4 pot I have to fold to a push, which is pretty gross. By betting I think I fold out most of the draws I dominate, but I probably fold out some weak jacks too.

Board: 5d 6c Jd 9c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 29.601% 29.60% 00.00% 534 0.00 { KdTd }
Hand 1: 70.399% 70.40% 00.00% 1270 0.00 { AKs, AdQd, AJs, AdTd, Ad9d, Ad5d, Ad4d, Ad3d, Ad2d, KJs, QJs, JdTd, J9s, Td9d, Td8d, 9d8d, 9d7d, 87s, 8d6d, 7d6d, 7d5d, 6d5d, 6d4d, 5d4d, AJo, KcJd, KcJh, KcJs, KdJc, KdJh, KdJs, KhJs, KsJh }

Submitted by : Fraser

***** Hand History for Game 34383491834 ***** Poker Stars
$1000.00 USD NL Texas Hold'em - Thursday, October 22, 11:54:38 ET 2009
Table Pherkad X Real Money
Seat 1 is the button
Seat 1: FastEddie267 $1658.25 USD
Seat 2: dc_publius $972.00 USD
Seat 3: viirusss $1331.00 USD
Seat 4: Hero $1159.00 USD
Seat 5: SZBwinS $289.50 USD
Seat 6: nanonoko $3636.75 USD
dc_publius posts small blind [$5.00 USD].
viirusss posts big blind [$10.00 USD].

Holecards
Dealt to Hero [ ]
Hero raises [$40.00 USD]
SZBwinS calls [$40.00 USD]
nanonoko folds
FastEddie267 calls [$40.00 USD]
dc_publius folds
viirusss calls [$30.00 USD]

Flop (Pot : $165.00)

   
viirusss checks
Hero bets [$124.00 USD]
SZBwinS folds
FastEddie267 calls [$124.00 USD]
viirusss folds

Turn (Pot : $413.00)

   

im not sure why c/c is so out of the question

oh sorry i misread. yea i think i c/c here almost always

mm ok, whats your plan for the river?

On October 23 2009 04:01 Fraser wrote: mm ok, whats your plan for the river?

hit an offsuit Q!

in all seriousness though, it all boils down to this: both of you have similar ranges except hes in position. analysis of this hand is too hard without knowing how much he bet and how fast he bet and how many tables hes playing when he bet and how fast he called the flop blah blah etc. all this comes into consideration. to me this is a general question vs a general opponent, so to answer generally I c/c turn then c/r a non-board-pairing diamond river or Q, or c/c turn then c/c a K or board-pairing diamond river. I think we have enough implied odds to c/c as I don't see him checking behind 78 on the river (I don't think he has a set ever but if he does hes not checking behind w/ those either) and I don't see him not stacking off w/ worse flush if it does come. with the added bonus of a K or Q potentially hitting and him bluffing at these cards I think we can profitably c/c no problem.

I definitely bet here sometimes, smaller, bigger, c/r AI sometimes, but vs specific opponents who are not general.

I'm so tired I'm loopy I hope that made sense!

Fasteddie:
[]pretty loose
[X]Standard Tag with moderate to high aggression.


if you bet turn eddy is not folding any draw u dominate since 47 and 43 are probably not in his range, a 2nd barrel might make him fold JQ and less, im guessing your tight so me might pitch it there, however if he flats turn you gotta go with it and shove any river since he is not slowplaying a se there and might only flat there with the straight, and just maybe.

The club turn is a bitch since now a C/R seems so drawy Eddy will feel very very tempted to call with a jack however, since u are the original pf raiser and c-bet 4 way he will probably pot control with all his jacks which is actually a really good line for us.

I think eddie is the type of player that would just raise the flop with NFD,pair+fd and combodraws and call with Jx and weak draws, but even if he does call with the nfd we still have a profitable turn bet imo since he is folding that and maybe Jx too since you have bet rly big into 4 people on THIS flop and now firing a second barrel with probably the weakest hand in your range that would bet here. Now you also have extremely clean 12 outs and maybe the K also to add to your fold equity. The if he just flats again you can just jam virtually any river and get snapped by worse flushes when you hit or put him in a sick spot when you miss and he has Jx, a FD that turned a 9 or whatever else he can have. Obviously you arent thrilled when he jams on you but with stacks like this you will be needing about 30% equity and you have more or less 26ish ¿? So you rly need him to fold like 1 out of a bazhillion times to make this good.
I dont rly like c/c because like what do we expect to happen? he checks back some of the time and we hit and only get paid by another flush, or we miss and fold or its checked back and we still lose, maybe hit a K and its checked back and we win, or we c/c and miss and fold the river or we c/c and hit and he only bets his flushes and checks back all the rest but maybe 67s or some weird 2p.Also unless you have some image you probably arent gonna be able to c/r the river with a flush and get called by anything thats not a flush anyways.

Evilsky you're saying i should bet call even though i'm not getting quite the right price?

We are talking about 3-4% off, gamboool a little man :D

Also I think the metagame implications of him seeing you b/f are worse than b/c.

just your stove for his range is fucked up coz you have Kd and Td in his range too which is bullshit

if his range is that skewed towards draws why cant we c/c then c/c any blank riv w/ K high? unless you think his range is primarily Jx and betting turn, shoving river will fold this, I don't see bet/call turn, or bet turn, shove river to be the MOST +EV line. granted I think its +EV but I also think vs some ppl c/c turn is a much better line.

Well I think that even those weak draws will often have a pair and check back, or just check back in general and then we got a hard river spot if they decide to bet when making their hand, or when they dont make their hand and bluff third pair we cant really call with K high I dont think. Plus the fact he prolly has as much Jx as weak draws if not more and we dont really want to c/c vs that dont we ?
I think basically you are saying his range is really strong here I guess? so we should c/c because of implied odds and I say his range is probably weak enough to make barreling good and plus our 12 outs to add to our FE.
Another thing I want to ask is what other hands would you play here like this? besides like 9dXd, what other hand you c/c here ?

On October 23 2009 22:36 N3CR0S wrote: just your stove for his range is fucked up coz you have Kd and Td in his range too which is bullshit

someone told me pstove automatically accounts for that.

On October 24 2009 02:41 n0rthf4ce wrote: if his range is that skewed towards draws why cant we c/c then c/c any blank riv w/ K high? unless you think his range is primarily Jx and betting turn, shoving river will fold this, I don't see bet/call turn, or bet turn, shove river to be the MOST +EV line. granted I think its +EV but I also think vs some ppl c/c turn is a much better line.

Looking at it again, Baal is right, every single draw in his range is either ace-high, paired the 9, had already paired the 6, or turned a straight. The only possible exception is like 34dd or Q8dd. So I don't think we can ever c/c a blank river.


Board: 5d 6c Jd 9c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 29.691% 29.69% 00.00% 614 0.00 { KdTd }
Hand 1: 70.309% 70.31% 00.00% 1454 0.00 { AdQd, AJs, Ad9d, Ad4d, Ad3d, Ad2d, KJs, QJs, JTs, 9d8d, 9d7d, 87s, AJo, KJo, QJo }

I'm also thinking that there are too many ace-high draws in his range to make a c/c for the implied odds profitable. Which makes me think that betting the turn is probably the only way to play this profitably? We need the F/E don't we?

Edit:
Hands he will bet river with when flush hits and we check to him:
AdQd, Ad9d, Ad4d, Ad3d, Ad2d (and fairly often A8dd, A7dd, A6dd)
vs
9d8d, 9d7d, 87dd, 87ss, 87hh, 87cc (and maybe 68dd,67dd,64dd but rarely I think?)

So it doesn't seem like we'd be making any money even when we hit our flush.

i would always bet the turn vs eddie and expect him to just fold a lot

I dont like a check/call or a check/shove cuz he's just going to have a plain jack too often that just checks back the turn. He's more stationy than ur average reg, but i think u still gotta make a standard semi-bluff here to move him off the weaker jacks. I think a 2/3 pot bet is adequate and I wouldnt feel the need to just call off a shove bad for whatever game theory reasons. Mostly give up on river, except bluff some of the scary clubs.

don't see how b/c is good here with this money behind with 12 outs (120bb deep)
so bet 280 and fold to a rr
only vs 78s is good to c/c
but 87s is small % of his range on this flop
it'll be interesting if you bet like 280 he calls and the riv is Kh
shove riv or c/f?

Results - I bet 310, he shoved, i folded.