UFC 100

Main card:

Brock Lesnar vs. Frank Mir
Georges St. Pierre vs. Thiago Alves
Dan Henderson vs. Michael Bisping
Jon Fitch vs. Paulo Thiago
Yoshihiro Akiyama vs. Alan Belcher

Under card:

Stephan Bonnar vs. Mark Coleman
Jim Miller vs. Mac Danzig
Dong Hyun Kim vs. T.J. Grant
Jon Jones vs. Jake O’Brien
CB Dollaway vs. Tom Lawlor
Matt Grice vs. Shannon Gugerty



Mir vs Lesnar

I have a hard time understanding anyones predictions on Mir vs Lesnar. Mir rapidly improved his striking which was showcased vs Nogueira, but even that fight doesn't prove a whole lot because it was more Nog looking bad than Mir looking good. Mir has a history of looking good and looking bad randomly but even though he has been in the UFC forever there are always so many unknown factors regarding his fights. He's a liability at all times. A mental case of not preparing. I have never seen Mir go to distance without gassing. New and improved Mir has won a bunch of quick fights so who knows.

Who's to say how fast Lesnar improves, too.We have no clue about his sub defense at this point and you really gotta be in his training camp to say something about this. He has had two years to learn it but that is not nearly enough to grapple with Mir. It's not going to be a grappling match though two years might also be easily be enough given Lesnars wrestling positioning and gnp. It's just all up in the air. Pretty random match I'm not even too excited about it since I have a strong dislike for both guys. If I dislike a fighter I can look forward to his fights in order to see him get his ass kicked but since I dislike both I can't even do that.

GSP vs Alves

This is easily going to be GSPs biggest test. I'm usually an avid bettor on GSP but definitely shying away from this one on either side. Alves has a style that is great versus anyone in the world as has been displayed by Crocop throughout most of his career but especially in 2006. If you have amazing takedown defense and amazing standup you can almost completely do without grappling and takedowns, until you meet a superior striker no matter how little MMA skills this striker has you will have a lot of trouble. As is displayed by Hunt vs Mirko and Kongo vs Mirko. Mirko is easily at all times a better MMartist than both these guys however matches up very poorly against them. Alves is a lot like this and can definitely give GSP trouble. GSP has been able to take down almost anyone at all but Alves tdd is at a whole new level for 170. Again definitely not betting on this one either. Alves might have the right style to beat GSP but at the same time might simply not be good enough at it. GSP has shown heart, conditioning, gameplanning, all skills Alves has yet to show us. GSP clearly is the favorite here but that is what the betting lines say as well. I would think Alves has a chance in the first few rounds and after that he will have to show us how much is in his gas tank.

Fitch vs Thiago

Thiago is _not_ good. If you may ever speak of a fluke KO it would be his fight against Koscheck. He does not have good boxing, he does not have much power. The stars aligned and everything worked out for him once but that will not happen against Fitch. Fitch is near unupsettable due to his wellrounded skills, heart and cardio. GL with that Paulo.



$500 (max) on Fitch at -365 to win $137

Coleman vs Bonnar

This is just a joke. Anyone with cardio should be a -1000 favorite over Coleman. Bonnar does have cardio and will obliterate him in rounds 2 and 3. Bonnar is very tough so it will also be hard to fluke upset him with a KO or sub (lol).

$1425 on Bonnar at -347.50 to win $404

Henderson vs Bisping

This is going to be interesting. When the lines were released Henderson was a -500 favorite and by now the lines have gone all the way to -225. Thinking about a bet on him now. I don't think Bisping is at the level Henderson and Franklin are at. Not in striking, heart, subs, wrestling. Cardio especially at 185 he will be ahead of Henderson in all likelyhood. That is the only thing what should keep you from betting as Hendo has historically shown terrible cardio (and skill with it) at 185. A loss vs Misaki and a few weird split decisions against Kondo/Bustamante and a bunch of wins in which he did not look good. Lately however he looked alright vs Anderson and pretty good against Palhares. I might put a small bet on him after all.

Pretty solid card overall. I don't think it is UFC 100 worthy mostly due to my lack of interest in Mir vs Lesnar, but a good card nonetheless. Excited to see Jon Jones back again. At the speed he improved last time we may expect a lot from him. Miller vs Danzig is a very good fight. I think Danzig is really good but should probably fight at 145. Neer just towered over him. Who isn't waiting to see Akiyama perform in the octagon. Miller Danzig, Akiyama Belcher, Jones Obrien are all fights I would like to see.

MiR > Lesnar plz 1 time leeeeeeeeeeeeeeee !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

well, 2 times actually

holy shit the bonnar vs coleman fight is free money...

Sexyama for the win

Thanks for the write up its a damn good main event card. My favorites being Lesnar, GSP, and Henderson.

I'm not sure GSP can lose a match. He's scary.

On July 01 2009 11:44 DustySwedeDude wrote: I'm not sure GSP can lose a match. He's scary.

Matt Serra?

seen a sparring vid with frank today. looking in best muscular shape ive ever seen him in easily. i was actually a lesnar fan for him risking trying to become an mma guy and hes a hard worker etc. then hated him after the whole cowboy riding heath herring thing and the attitude hes shown. go mir by uh.... guillotine?

dunno why but i always root against gsp except against hughes. goooo alves.

id be careful on the coleman fight. hes been training at extreme couture. hes really hard to sub and will take stephan down with ease. if he gets in shape at EC and the weight cut goes better for him he could easily take this.

really excited for danzig vs miller, akiyama vs belcher and obviously gsp vs alves. other fights i am intrigued by, but not really pumped for.



gsp vs alves has some interesting implications for the future of both 170 and 185 divisions. if gsp wins then who gets a title shot next? nobody is ready yet. fitch got obliterated and winning 2 fights vs gono and thiago doesnt earn him another shot. koscheck just lost. hughes cant compete with gsp anymore. serra just lost. kampmann needs another fight or two. swick needs another fight or two. diego moved down to 155.

basically i think if gsp beats alves, kampmann vs swick needs to happen to create the next title shot. while that is happening gsp should move up to middleweight and get in a warmup fight before he tries to get in there with anderson. someone he would do well against that isnt bad like a ricardo almeida or nate quarry or kendall grove (play off the hawaii fued). gsp would really really struggle against some people at mw like henderson, akiyama, guys that are bigger/stronger than him with really good wrestling/judo and good standup.

but what gsp has is the perfect style to possibly beat anderson which really really sets up a superfight in the next 12-18 months if both guys keep winning over everyone. but gsp should definitely have a warmup fight at 185 first to get used to both putting on more weight and fighting bigger opponents, then move back to 170 to defend his title vs swick/kampmann winner, then back to 185 to fight anderson if he wins that.


if thiago does beat gsp, i think gsp should get an immediate rematch for a few reasons. for one, gsp is basically the face of the sport and is the most popular fighter in the ufc, he should be fighting in big title fights, not rebound fights where he will destroy someone. for two nobody else in the division is ready and who wants to ice a champion to wait for other matches to happen so he can defend his title, and for three it would just be a massive massive ppv event because it wouldnt be looked at as a complete fluke like the serra fight.



the mir/lesnar fight i am pulling for brock. as victor said mir is really spacey and i dont think he has nearly as high a ceiling in the sport as brock does. also if brock wins it would set up some really interesting future matchups in the ufc while i think mir would just get dominated by a lot of other guys who are better strikers/have tdd or are good enough grapplers to hold their own and not get subbed. anyway im really curious to see how far brock has come along, and i hope the fight goes at least 5-10 minutes so each fighter can showcase their skills a bit.



akiyama is so so so good. not only does he fight out of japan and get that market into the ufc, but he has korean heritage so he gets almost all of the asian fighting market tuned in. hes a really classy, well dressed, likeable guy that has insane skills. the guy has better judo than karo with good striking, pretty damn good subs and a good head to go with it. he seems like a really intelligent guy too, so learning and adapting comes easier to him than others.

i think its possible he could have the best chance of anyone to beat anderson at 185 because of his judo, striking, grappling combination. hes only been defeated once, and that was his first fight vs k1 legend jerome lebanner who had like a 60-70 pound advantage on akiyama and it still wasnt an easy victory. hopefully he gets a few wins so he can getinto the title mix at 185 along with maia/marquardt/hendo. maybe an akiyama vs hendo fight down the road at like ufc 106 if both guys win to set up a title shot after maia/marquardt.



hmm, not much to say on bisping vs hendo or the other fights.

unrelated but theres a rumor going around kimbo lost his first fight in tuf 10 house lmao

christ machida is -500 to rape Rua. Is there any fighter at LHW that machia isn't be an enormous favorate over?
It's dynasty time IMO

On July 01 2009 13:26 TalentedTom wrote: christ machida is -500 to rape Rua. Is there any fighter at LHW that machia isn't be an enormous favorate over? It's dynasty time IMO

bet the house on shogun son. macheetah is going down.

On July 01 2009 13:19 Daut wrote: unrelated but theres a rumor going around kimbo lost his first fight in tuf 10 house lmao

sucks. feel bad for the guy. shoulda went to japan and made tons of money.

nice spoiler daut

On July 01 2009 15:25 Stim_Abuser wrote: Show nested quote + On July 01 2009 13:26 TalentedTom wrote: christ machida is -500 to rape Rua. Is there any fighter at LHW that machia isn't be an enormous favorate over? It's dynasty time IMO bet the house on shogun son. macheetah is going down.

he has to get hit before that happens, which is unlikley

On July 01 2009 11:47 Baal wrote: Show nested quote + On July 01 2009 11:44 DustySwedeDude wrote: I'm not sure GSP can lose a match. He's scary. Matt Serra?

Yea, but I heard Jesus got his ass kicked a few time before he got into this I'm 3-dudes-at-the-same-time-thingy and such too so like, that's in the past, now he's like The Fallen without stupid plot twists and sick Hidden Random Luck.

GSP is overall better than Alves

However Alves can knockout anyone at 170 with his Muay Thai skills.
+ Alves is one of the very few guys at 170 who is the same size GSP is

On July 01 2009 12:13 Stim_Abuser wrote: seen a sparring vid with frank today. looking in best muscular shape ive ever seen him in easily. i was actually a lesnar fan for him risking trying to become an mma guy and hes a hard worker etc. then hated him after the whole cowboy riding heath herring thing and the attitude hes shown. go mir by uh.... guillotine? dunno why but i always root against gsp except against hughes. goooo alves. id be careful on the coleman fight. hes been training at extreme couture. hes really hard to sub and will take stephan down with ease. if he gets in shape at EC and the weight cut goes better for him he could easily take this.

wat? Coleman even on steroids couldnt last longer than 1 round, he will get murdered

On July 01 2009 18:55 Baal wrote: Show nested quote + On July 01 2009 12:13 Stim_Abuser wrote: seen a sparring vid with frank today. looking in best muscular shape ive ever seen him in easily. i was actually a lesnar fan for him risking trying to become an mma guy and hes a hard worker etc. then hated him after the whole cowboy riding heath herring thing and the attitude hes shown. go mir by uh.... guillotine? dunno why but i always root against gsp except against hughes. goooo alves. id be careful on the coleman fight. hes been training at extreme couture. hes really hard to sub and will take stephan down with ease. if he gets in shape at EC and the weight cut goes better for him he could easily take this. wat? Coleman even on steroids couldnt last longer than 1 round, he will get murdered

thats because he was always at a very very shitty camp. EC might get him into decent shape. not to mention bonnar couldnt finish a childrens book. not saying coleman will win. just saying with those shitty odds dunno if its worth it.