Bottom Set FR

zoni_toni is a half stack 37/9 opening utg. Keli flats from Utg+1 (17/15) Millar flats MP (21/12). Im trying to think of Kelis calling range vs a half stacker utg open. And all that comes to my mind is 88/JJ.

I dont see him calling with any suited connectors, since his odds are pretty busted with those. And my range has to look strong since i 3bet before he put any money in. Since we can maybe attribute AQss as well as 88/JJ and since we have 120 invested, is this a standard stack off?

Of course if keli called from Mp to the button this is a fairly easy stackoff imo, but his range from utg+1 looks heavily weighted to a narrow range, Opinions?

Submitted by : handbanana21

$600.00 USD NL Texas Hold'em - Sunday, June 28, 02:10:00 ET 2009
Table Eunike V Real Money
Seat 1 is the button
Seat 1: wobbly_au $921.00 USD
Seat 2: BedfontKid $576.00 USD
Seat 3: Hero $609.00 USD
Seat 4: zoni_toni $334.90 USD
Seat 5: Kelisitaan $1701.00 USD
Seat 6: mustanggino $560.65 USD
Seat 7: alih99999 $618.00 USD
Seat 8: millardg $600.00 USD
Seat 9: IntenseDawg $600.00 USD
BedfontKid posts small blind [$3.00 USD].
Hero posts big blind [$6.00 USD].

Holecards
Dealt to Hero
zoni_toni raises [$18.00 USD]
Kelisitaan calls [$18.00 USD]
mustanggino folds
alih99999 folds
millardg calls [$18.00 USD]
IntenseDawg folds
wobbly_au folds
BedfontKid folds
Hero calls [$12.00 USD]

Flop (Pot : $75.00)

   
Hero checks
zoni_toni checks
Kelisitaan bets [$18.00 USD]
millardg raises [$60.00 USD]
Hero raises [$120.00 USD]
zoni_toni folds
Kelisitaan raises [$222.00 USD]
millardg folds
Hero

omg a FR post !!!

hmmm really gay spot his bet sizing almost screams i have 88 JJ i think its a fold because i dont think a good player like kelisitan will flat 8J , 58 a FD or 67 on utg2 vs a ep open also his 4bet 120 to 222 looks too strong i dont think he will do that with a draw

On June 29 2009 09:49 Darki wrote: omg a FR post !!! hmmm really gay spot his bet sizing almost screams i have 88 JJ i think its a fold because i dont think a good player like kelisitan will flat 8J , 58 a FD or 67 on utg2 vs a ep open also his 4bet 120 to 222 looks too strong i dont think he will do that with a draw

wouldnt he be 3betting JJ vs halfstack? sry for bumping this but i would like to see some comments

his range is JJ/88 all day here, never a draw
esp in such a multiway pot, it's an easy pitch with bottom set
keli in this spot would fold bottom set against a reg as well, guy almost never spews.

On June 29 2009 14:12 dogmeat wrote: wouldnt he be 3betting JJ vs halfstack? sry for bumping this but i would like to see some comments

nah he doesn't need to, he has such a huge postflop edge against others and he can handread very well
and if he 3bets JJ he's just folding everything out except QQ+ maybe AK, if he gets 4bet he gets put in an awkward spot.
and this is FR

On June 29 2009 16:02 Exhilarate wrote: Show nested quote + On June 29 2009 14:12 dogmeat wrote: wouldnt he be 3betting JJ vs halfstack? sry for bumping this but i would like to see some comments nah he doesn't need to, he has such a huge postflop edge against others and he can handread very well and if he 3bets JJ he's just folding everything out except QQ+ maybe AK, if he gets 4bet he gets put in an awkward spot. and this is FR

'zoni_toni is a half stack 37/9 opening utg'

anyway thx for comment

why would he want to be gambling vs a halfstack when he can just play postflop?
don't really have to 3bet every hand

he almost never spews unless it's with 102 against u exhilarate.

On June 29 2009 16:55 Fox wrote: he almost never spews unless it's with 102 against u exhilarate.

That was also a hu 3bet pot. This is a lil dif

keli also does these gay bets in 4-5way pots, or hu pots, repping mid/top set.
he's just never going crazy with a draw here esp after you go over the top of millerdg.

Id much rather flat or even fold then cold4b and then doubt stacking off there. And his calling range preflop is not 88/JJ only r u srs? He probably wouldnt be doing this with a naked FD but there are so many combo draws on this board I am shipping it in.

imo i think someone with such a high winrate has to know that calling with scs in that position vs a half stack 37/9 is a leak. Of course i wasnt planning on folding until i saw kelis 3bet size, I understand the combo draws, but what range can we really assign keli here that would make sense evil? Not trying to justify myself, thats why i posted the hand. Just curious what you think we can range him on that he would call knowing he has about 5 squeeze happy regs behind him, and knowing that he cant really outplay a fish postflop with sc's and etc.

I dont know man, I think he can have A8s,67s,9Ts,89s. And why he cant outplay some fish postflop? hes fucking keli ffs
To be clear im not saying fist pump ship it in but ugh I just dont like 4b folding here.

meh, his hand is pretty faced up after he clicks it back in this spot
it seems like such spew to be doing this with zero fold equity(scs, Axs) when handbanana shows so much strength
i still think fold is best here.

obv he has some fold equity if handbanana is thinking about folding bottom set ;-)

setmining and then folding sets is kinda yucky tbh

this is fr i dont like folding sets too but this is a spot where you can fold and feel good about it