Your odds are sweet but your hand sucks. You have a marginal hi and a second nut lo-draw (With 4 outs to nutlo)
Few things to consider:
1. Theoretically, they shouldn't have lots of T7, T6 or any Tx for that matter in their hand since it's hi/lo and those cards quickly turn hands into crap. Especially T7.
1.1. Expanding on that concept and taking into account the stakes. Most players on that level have entered the SNG by accident, thinking it's going to be Hold'em and aren't aware of the rules or basics of the game, thus making these boaty hands more likely (and in the otherhands, nutlo draws less likely).
1.2. Hands such as A2-crap-crap are severely ovarvelued by donks, the chance of them having two bigger spades is slim but possible. The thing is, you could be drawing dead or dead to a split here - either way it's not really desireable result.
2. Which cards can you valuebet on the river? Deuces? Just wondering. If you're indeed drawing to half pot, but can't valuebet any hand and/or will end up paying another bet on the river, you really have to consider your line here and what you think he has. To me it really looks like a flush, but it could be a number of things, a straight, a boat, or random four cards.
Those things being said, I think this turn is still a call - a raise would be HORRIBLE. I actually think that the fact that this is no limit makes this decision a lot harder. In pot limit, you'd know that by calling you would be losing total of 400 chips maximum. Here you can't really know how big of a bet you will end up paying off on the river, which is why I'd probably call but not feel too happy about it.
If you shoved this, you shouldn't quit your dayjob just yet. It makes absolutely no sense whatsoever. And no, you don't habve foldign equity. Never ever ever. Just think about: Which better hands do you expect to fold out? |
Contact Users: 640 Active, 0 Logged in - Time: 09:45
!
,
,
,
,