Did I outthink myself?

OK, here's the deal. Villain is a 23/17 pretty bad player. A few hands later he called pre with AJ, called a c-bet on a all-rags flop, checked behind on the turn and called a river bet when an A hit the river. I had air and was trying to represent an ace T_T. Anyway, I figured out that he can't have a straight here, cause his flop call would make no sense. No flopped/turned set either, cause why the hell check on the turn? No ace as well (maybe except A7, which I doubt he'd call with in the first place), because raising here for value with a naked ace is pretty stupid. So my guess here is air or 77. The odds are almost 3:1 - tempting. So, is it +EV to make that call here or should I just give him credit for a badly played/rivered set and muck my hand?

My plan on the turn was to check/call and check/re-evaluate river or go for a free river, v-bet and hopefully get a call from a PP or a 9. Betting turn doesn't make sense IMO, cause all worse hands will fold.

Submitted by : Kapol

POKERSTARS GAME #22445885910: HOLD'EM NO LIMIT ($0.50/$1.00) - 2008/11/28 16:52:15 ET
Table 'Mandeville V' 6-max Seat #6 is the button
Seat 2: Kapol ($100 in chips)
Seat 3: OSUGreg1983 ($139.35 in chips)
Seat 4: yellodot ($118.50 in chips)
Seat 5: D Amiri ($120.30 in chips)
Seat 6: c0secant ($105.50 in chips)
Kapol : posts small blind $0.50
OSUGreg1983: posts big blind $1

Holecards
Dealt to Kapol
yellodot: folds
D Amiri: folds
c0secant: folds
Kapol : raises $3 to $4
OSUGreg1983: calls $3

Flop (Pot : $8.00)

   
Kapol : bets $5
OSUGreg1983: calls $5

Turn (Pot : $18.00)

   
Kapol : checks
OSUGreg1983: checks

River (Pot : $18.00)

   
Kapol : bets $9
OSUGreg1983: raises $19 to $28
Kapol :

OSUGreg is a passive fish from my stats on him, i'd fold everything but 99,TT,AA, and J8 here. I don't think he is ever bluffing a river if my stats on him are correct. He probably rivered two pair or a set. Against more aggro players this would be a tempting call but not against someone with an AF of 1

i think despite the odds ur gettin a fold is the best option .... he has 97 47 A7 or some retarded random shit that has u beat too often here

yeah from what I remember of osugreg I don't think this is ever bluff.

your river bet size is preety gross
but yes def fold your hand looks like a value bet i doubt hes turning anything into a bluff here

an important thing to ask yourself here is
would a random nitty (prob 10+ tabling) regular float you on a mega dry board just to bluffraise you on the river?

i didnt bother reading that large pharagraph you wrote you are probably out leveling yourself

Sooo... the player is bad because he floated the flop in position with the best hand, and called ur bluff on the river with... the best hand. Then this hand proceeds to happen. Wat? Massive levelling going on here. I'm lost.

On November 28 2008 19:19 JonnyCosMo wrote: Sooo... the player is bad because he floated the flop in position with the best hand, and called ur bluff on the river with... the best hand. Then this hand proceeds to happen. Wat? Massive levelling going on here. I'm lost.

Most of us arn't calling him bad based off of this hand, we are calling him bad/nitty based of other hands we've had w/ him. In the 1k hands i've played w/ him he is yet to raise a street w/o having at least top two pair. Because of the previous hands we've had w/ him we are calling this one a ridiculously easy fold.

EDIT: To answer the general question, yes you out think yourself. Rarely will 100nl require anywhere near as much thinking as you put into this hand.

i fold

^^^^^^^^

I called (duh) and he had 77 obv .

if you gaybet like that you have to call anything

bad bet, worse call

On November 28 2008 19:14 TalentedTom wrote: an important thing to ask yourself here is would a random nitty (prob 10+ tabling) regular float you on a mega dry board just to bluffraise you on the river?

+1

I would fold. Also, I would prefer ch/flop bet/turn bet/fold river.

On November 28 2008 19:14 TalentedTom wrote: an important thing to ask yourself here is would a random nitty (prob 10+ tabling) regular float you on a mega dry board just to bluffraise you on the river?

This.

that would be a very very bad call

I guess you can level yourself into calling when you bet halfpot on the river

Obv self ownage ..... Terrible bluff spot so how the hell do you call