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Did I outthink myself?

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Kapol   Poland. Nov 28 2008 18:27. Posts 4696

OK, here's the deal. Villain is a 23/17 pretty bad player. A few hands later he called pre with AJ, called a c-bet on a all-rags flop, checked behind on the turn and called a river bet when an A hit the river. I had air and was trying to represent an ace T_T. Anyway, I figured out that he can't have a straight here, cause his flop call would make no sense. No flopped/turned set either, cause why the hell check on the turn? No ace as well (maybe except A7, which I doubt he'd call with in the first place), because raising here for value with a naked ace is pretty stupid. So my guess here is air or 77. The odds are almost 3:1 - tempting. So, is it +EV to make that call here or should I just give him credit for a badly played/rivered set and muck my hand?

My plan on the turn was to check/call and check/re-evaluate river or go for a free river, v-bet and hopefully get a call from a PP or a 9. Betting turn doesn't make sense IMO, cause all worse hands will fold.

Submitted by : Kapol

POKERSTARS GAME #22445885910: HOLD'EM NO LIMIT ($0.50/$1.00) - 2008/11/28 16:52:15 ET
Table 'Mandeville V' 6-max Seat #6 is the button
Seat 2: Kapol ($100 in chips)
Seat 3: OSUGreg1983 ($139.35 in chips)
Seat 4: yellodot ($118.50 in chips)
Seat 5: D Amiri ($120.30 in chips)
Seat 6: c0secant ($105.50 in chips)
Kapol : posts small blind $0.50
OSUGreg1983: posts big blind $1

Holecards
Dealt to Kapol 3cAc
yellodot: folds
D Amiri: folds
c0secant: folds
Kapol : raises $3 to $4
OSUGreg1983: calls $3

Flop (Pot : $8.00)

   As9d4h
Kapol : bets $5
OSUGreg1983: calls $5

Turn (Pot : $18.00)

   As9d4hTh
Kapol : checks
OSUGreg1983: checks

River (Pot : $18.00)

   As9d4hTh7s
Kapol : bets $9
OSUGreg1983: raises $19 to $28
Kapol :

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BIBLE (Basic Instructions Before Leaving Earth)Last edit: 28/11/2008 18:32

palak   United States. Nov 28 2008 18:57. Posts 4601

OSUGreg is a passive fish from my stats on him, i'd fold everything but 99,TT,AA, and J8 here. I don't think he is ever bluffing a river if my stats on him are correct. He probably rivered two pair or a set. Against more aggro players this would be a tempting call but not against someone with an AF of 1

dont tap the glass...im about ready to take a fucking hammer to the aquarium 

Svetoslav   Bulgaria. Nov 28 2008 18:59. Posts 1376

i think despite the odds ur gettin a fold is the best option .... he has 97 47 A7 or some retarded random shit that has u beat too often here

lets hug it out bitch 

matdon460   United States. Nov 28 2008 20:04. Posts 1089

yeah from what I remember of osugreg I don't think this is ever bluff.

Of course it was a good shove, I won 

TalentedTom    Canada. Nov 28 2008 20:12. Posts 20070

your river bet size is preety gross
but yes def fold your hand looks like a value bet i doubt hes turning anything into a bluff here

Our deepest fear is not that we are inadequate. Our deepest fear is that we are powerful beyond measure. It is our light not our darkness that most frightens us and as we let our own lights shine we unconsciously give other people permision to do the same 

TalentedTom    Canada. Nov 28 2008 20:14. Posts 20070

an important thing to ask yourself here is
would a random nitty (prob 10+ tabling) regular float you on a mega dry board just to bluffraise you on the river?

Our deepest fear is not that we are inadequate. Our deepest fear is that we are powerful beyond measure. It is our light not our darkness that most frightens us and as we let our own lights shine we unconsciously give other people permision to do the same 

TalentedTom    Canada. Nov 28 2008 20:15. Posts 20070

i didnt bother reading that large pharagraph you wrote you are probably out leveling yourself

Our deepest fear is not that we are inadequate. Our deepest fear is that we are powerful beyond measure. It is our light not our darkness that most frightens us and as we let our own lights shine we unconsciously give other people permision to do the same 

JonnyCosMo   United States. Nov 28 2008 20:19. Posts 7292

Sooo... the player is bad because he floated the flop in position with the best hand, and called ur bluff on the river with... the best hand. Then this hand proceeds to happen. Wat? Massive levelling going on here. I'm lost.

Everyone needs to see that you are king of the castle - PoorUser 

palak   United States. Nov 28 2008 20:36. Posts 4601


  On November 28 2008 19:19 JonnyCosMo wrote:
Sooo... the player is bad because he floated the flop in position with the best hand, and called ur bluff on the river with... the best hand. Then this hand proceeds to happen. Wat? Massive levelling going on here. I'm lost.



Most of us arn't calling him bad based off of this hand, we are calling him bad/nitty based of other hands we've had w/ him. In the 1k hands i've played w/ him he is yet to raise a street w/o having at least top two pair. Because of the previous hands we've had w/ him we are calling this one a ridiculously easy fold.

EDIT: To answer the general question, yes you out think yourself. Rarely will 100nl require anywhere near as much thinking as you put into this hand.

dont tap the glass...im about ready to take a fucking hammer to the aquariumLast edit: 28/11/2008 21:02

caie   United States. Nov 28 2008 20:55. Posts 13

i fold


BrocheN   United States. Nov 28 2008 21:48. Posts 932

^^^^^^^^


Kapol   Poland. Nov 28 2008 22:51. Posts 4696

I called (duh) and he had 77 obv .

BIBLE (Basic Instructions Before Leaving Earth)Last edit: 28/11/2008 22:51

ChromaX   Bulgaria. Nov 28 2008 22:56. Posts 392

if you gaybet like that you have to call anything

AA is only a pair MUPPET - the guy who cracked my AA calling AI pf with QJ 

X sawseech   Canada. Nov 29 2008 13:26. Posts 3182

bad bet, worse call

lets go fucking mental la la la la lets go fucking mental lets go fucking mental lala la la 

Trey   United States. Nov 29 2008 14:30. Posts 5616


  On November 28 2008 19:14 TalentedTom wrote:
an important thing to ask yourself here is
would a random nitty (prob 10+ tabling) regular float you on a mega dry board just to bluffraise you on the river?



+1


the cleaner   Germany. Nov 29 2008 14:56. Posts 3014

I would fold. Also, I would prefer ch/flop bet/turn bet/fold river.

there are no facts only interpretations 

VENOM   United States. Nov 29 2008 15:55. Posts 1383


  On November 28 2008 19:14 TalentedTom wrote:
an important thing to ask yourself here is
would a random nitty (prob 10+ tabling) regular float you on a mega dry board just to bluffraise you on the river?



This.

daylight keeps the shadows falling behind - Kenna / YadadaMeEn21 

Fayth    Canada. Nov 29 2008 17:41. Posts 10085

that would be a very very bad call

Im not sure what to do tomorrow when I see her, should I shake her hand?? -Floofy 

lebowski   Greece. Nov 29 2008 19:19. Posts 9205

I guess you can level yourself into calling when you bet halfpot on the river

new shit has come to light... a-and... shit! man... 

GirlsRVicious   United States. Nov 29 2008 21:14. Posts 1094

Obv self ownage ..... Terrible bluff spot so how the hell do you call

LOL Live Pokerz 

 
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