HU SnG Math Check

Hey all,

Trying to figure out the math for whether or not HUSnGs are more profitable than the shootouts, and I'm stuck. Perhaps a few of you have done this a long time ago or can help me out.

Basically, this is the EV calculation for a HUDS that I did awhile back. I think it's off, because I might be counting my "risk" twice, by subtracting it from the "to win" even though I'm already calculating my risk/ probability of cashing out of the money.

HUDS:
Buy in: 22+2
1st Prize: 114.4
2nd Prize: 61.6

Must Win 3 Games For 1st: 55/100 * 55/100 * 55/100 = .16375
Win 2 Games for 2nd: 55/100 * 55/100 * 45/100 = .136125
Out of the money: 1 - .16375 - .136125 = .70

Rounded Numbers:
1st: 16%
2nd: 14%
Oom: 70%


Risk EV:
$24 (.7) = $-16.8

To Win EV:
($114.4 - 24) * (.16) = $14.4
($61.6 - 24) * (.14) = $5.264
= $19.728
______
Net EV: 19.728-16.8 = $2.928 (for three games)

Is that right? Or should I be calculating simply the raw "win" numbers?
The way I see it, the .7 is the "chance I end up down", and the .3 is the "chance I end up, up", so I should be subtracting the buy in? So confused.

basically, if the above calculation was right, then HUDSs are less profitable with a 55% ITM, since the EV of two 22s is something like $3.75.