NL400 64s rivered flush facing shove

Villain is a reg. On the one hand, a set makes no sense since he played it too passively on a very drawy board and neither does a flush because who check-calls 75% pot bet on turn with FD. But then this line seems like it's never a bluff. Villain is a reg and I don't have much history on him at all. Doesn't seem to get out of line too much tho.

EDIT: also who likes/dislikes the turn bet?

Submitted by : phexac

PokerStars Game #22184435101: Hold'em No Limit ($2/$4) - 2008/11/19 16:21:31 ET
Table 'Ottegebe' 6-max Seat #1 is the button
Seat 1: Hero ($400 in chips)
Seat 2: the_main ($491.10 in chips)
Seat 3: myke11 ($430.30 in chips)
Seat 4: JayBizzle8 ($394 in chips)
Seat 5: ssurfer1231 ($534.40 in chips)
Seat 6: JonnyCosMo ($611.10 in chips)
the_main: posts small blind $2
myke11: posts big blind $4

Holecards
Dealt to Hero
JayBizzle8: folds
ssurfer1231: folds
JonnyCosMo: folds
Hero : raises $8 to $12
the_main: folds
myke11: calls $8

Flop (Pot : $26.00)

   
myke11: checks
Hero : bets $18
myke11: raises $38 to $56
Hero : calls $38

Turn (Pot : $138.00)

   
myke11: checks
Hero : bets $100
myke11: calls $100

River (Pot : $338.00)

   
myke11: bets $262.30 and is all-in
Hero

al;ksdfjalsfkjasl;dkfjad;fj

snap

call/celebrate

9T?

what hands u bet that turn with, and call the reraise on the flop with?
AJ QJ KJ JT J9,
do u 4bet J8 33 83 J3 T9d Axd 88?
you bet the turn cause u think hes too weak to bet, he must be too weak to call?

he can reasonably have
33 = 3 combos
88 = 3 combos
99? = 1 combo
T9s = 2 combos
Q9s = 2 combos
97s = 2 combos

i don't think he can have TXdd, because those are more likely to either barrel or check/shove the turn
I do think he can have 8Xdd expecting to have a chance to showdown cheaply sometimes = 6 combos

so you can't beat 6+3+3+1 = 13 of his hands, but you can beat 6 of his hands and a small % of bluffs or other random crap like LOL QT, LOL AA, so i'd say you are gonna win like 35-40% when you call? and you need like 44% to win

i think it's a close fold then. he can have 98 and J9 a bit. looks sick but i'd prob fold without some kind of really strong read that he specifically wouldn't play 33 this way. with a stronger flush i think it's a close call

i guess some really weird AXdd are in his range too which makes it an even more compelling fold

On November 20 2008 01:36 [vital]Myth wrote: he can reasonably have 33 = 3 combos 88 = 3 combos 99? = 1 combo T9s = 2 combos Q9s = 2 combos 97s = 2 combos i don't think he can have TXdd, because those are more likely to either barrel or check/shove the turn I do think he can have 8Xdd expecting to have a chance to showdown cheaply sometimes = 6 combos so you can't beat 6+3+3+1 = 13 of his hands, but you can beat 6 of his hands and a small % of bluffs or other random crap like LOL QT, LOL AA, so i'd say you are gonna win like 35-40% when you call? and you need like 44% to win i think it's a close fold then. he can have 98 and J9 a bit. looks sick but i'd prob fold without some kind of really strong read that he specifically wouldn't play 33 this way. with a stronger flush i think it's a close call

Don't think the sets and 2 pair are all that likely since they'd probably bet the turn. At the very least reduce the combinations since he's not 100% ch-caing them.

snap this as fast as you can, i dont think he plays his flush draw like this, he probably c/r on turn or lead out but c/cing is never a fd imo. 89/j9 is possible but that is only hadn i see you losing too.
you beat t9/q9.

you also beat tq/t7 str8,