NL10 - TP2K, flop decision?

Villian is 4/4 over 30 hands...

Submitted by : Into Infinity

Full Tilt Poker Game #8429613303: Table Swimmer (6 max) - $0.05/$0.10 - No Limit Hold'em - 13:18:59 ET - 2008/10/10
Seat 1: overtoaster ($7.65)
Seat 2: Into Infinity ($19.10)
Seat 3: manmah00 ($16.75)
Seat 4: akira893 ($11.15)
Seat 5: UnleashrOm ($10)
Seat 6: Mukcep ($5.05)
akira893 posts the small blind of $0.05
UnleashrOm posts the big blind of $0.10
The button is in seat #3

Holecards
Dealt to Into Infinity
Mukcep folds
overtoaster folds
Into Infinity raises to $0.35
manmah00 folds
UnleashrOm adds $0.10
akira893 calls $0.30
UnleashrOm folds

Flop (Pot : $0.80)

   
akira893 checks
Into Infinity has 15 seconds left to act
Into Infinity bets $0.60
akira893 has 15 seconds left to act
akira893 raises to $1.80
Into Infinity has 15 seconds left to act

unless you know he's a retard I like calling here and re-evaluating on the turn.
he could also do this with an FD

yeah the sample size isn't too big yet so you really can't peg him as an uber nit just yetm but over 30 hands that is still pretty tight. yeah he could have 44 99 and AQ here, but like lazy said he can have a lot of draws as well. Raising is suicide imo, but you can flat here IP and hope for a safe turn card and reeval there. I'd imagine that he would start playing pretty straightforward for the rest of the hand if you call, so it makes decisions for the rest of the hand a little easier.

edit: wooooooo 1000th post!

i think i'm folding this all day against a villain who is 4/4 (even if it's just over 30). probably much better at these levels just to give apparently tight unknowns respect rather than commit a lot of money in this spot. gonna reduce variance significantly and PROBABLY be a money-saving fold in the long run. i know a lot of people subscribe to the philosophy that you should always be working to maximize your EV, but IF continuing here is +EV, then it's very marginally so, and honestly there's no shame in just letting it go. look for places you can feel more comfortable about. unless i vastly underestimate the number of guys who are performing STRONG check raises w/ flush draws and straight bluffs at NL10, then I think this is a good time to let go of your hand. if you continue you're basically bluff catching and trying to take advantage of busted draws, and you're hating ANY turn lead. if you're willing to call a turn bet then he's easily putting you in for a BI when he wants to and your hand is pretty much face up (if he's moderately thinking), so that's a bad thing.

On October 10 2008 12:52 failsafe wrote: i think i'm folding this all day against a villain who is 4/4 (even if it's just over 30). probably much better at these levels just to give apparently tight unknowns respect rather than commit a lot of money in this spot. gonna reduce variance significantly and PROBABLY be a money-saving fold in the long run. i know a lot of people subscribe to the philosophy that you should always be working to maximize your EV, but IF continuing here is +EV, then it's very marginally so, and honestly there's no shame in just letting it go. look for places you can feel more comfortable about. unless i vastly underestimate the number of guys who are performing STRONG check raises w/ flush draws and straight bluffs at NL10, then I think this is a good time to let go of your hand. if you continue you're basically bluff catching and trying to take advantage of busted draws, and you're hating ANY turn lead. if you're willing to call a turn bet then he's easily putting you in for a BI when he wants to and your hand is pretty much face up (if he's moderately thinking), so that's a bad thing.

This is a good point about it being only marginal if it is in fact +EV, but it is still an edge and I feel like you should push your edges, no matter how small. This obviously applies if you are confident in that edge, though, so i can see what you mean about folding anyway if your aren't really sure where you stand. The only thing is that his valuetowning range is so narrow that he doesn't need to have THAT many draws for this to be +EV assuming he tries to take a free card on the turn with them.

folding is bad. call and look what he does on the turn

he's not good enough to raise draws. fold fold

pitch it,lacking info.

shove all in take note gg

2options.

B/f flop
or..... call reeval turn

c/r is like a set every time at small stakes, or he thinks you're just throwing a standard cbet and is trying to bluff you out.
probably try and get a cheap showdown if possible.

don't shove flop

call and take a turn maybe but don't get too attached

adn what turn is going to be good? a K?

Fold 100%. What is a nit raising you from the small blind? The only thing you beat is JJ, maybe TT and AK. There's better spots to put in your money.

either 4bet the flop to 4.2.5-5 which i do here vs lag players, call vs unknowns and play turn passively or fold vs nits

On October 13 2008 01:33 gymnast wrote: adn what turn is going to be good? a K?

any non-spade/ace + any card that pairs the board?

I didn't realize that you said he was 4/4. Either way I'm still inclined to call, see a turn and proceed with caution. Folding is fine as well if you really feel he is a sick nit and only playing the nuts. 30 hands isn't shit.

one hand over 30 isn't shit?

if you call the flop, you have to think JT and flush draw are a big part of his range.
-so are we calling another 2/3>pot bet on a non spade/non K/8 turn? if so we fold to another strong bet on the river?
-are we checking behind the turn and calling a river bet?

also its quite possible at nl10 that a player can just get bored... even playing 4/4... ive seen some weird shit where they must just get tired of not being dealt monsters