NL50 - Was I too much of a nit here?

Of course this is a spew either way by folding river, since if I was going to fold, I should have done it on the turn probably?

Anyways I STRONGLY suspected he had a set. He is pretty nitty - 16/13 and he has 9.0 aggression on the flop, 2.0 on turn, inf on river.

At best I am chopping with him imo, but isn't this kind of player 3betting AK OOP? Plus, is he playing it this strong when slightly deep? Perhaps I did have the better hand (I think this is unlikely) and he sensed weakness in my turn bet? IDK

I actually wanted to check behind on the turn, because I STRONGLY dislike playing bloated pots while deep with TPTK type hands. Because it gets me into shitty spots so often. Problem is, as played I think I need to be calling the river because of how small the bet is in relation to the pot? I'm thoroughly disgusted by how I played this.

Submitted by : lazymej

PokerStars Game #21046749234: Hold'em No Limit ($0.25/$0.50) - 2008/10/09 2:12:08 ET
Table 'Medon IV' 6-max Seat #2 is the button
Seat 1: turbo08 ($36.50 in chips)
Seat 2: cityburke ($49.25 in chips)
Seat 3: Outer Rim ($65.65 in chips)
Seat 4: Enter PIN ($61.20 in chips)
Seat 5: Hero ($110.30 in chips)
Seat 6: BetzieSue ($65.10 in chips)
Outer Rim: posts small blind $0.25
Enter PIN: posts big blind $0.50

Holecards
Dealt to Hero
Hero : raises $1.50 to $2
BetzieSue: folds
turbo08: folds
cityburke: folds
Outer Rim: calls $1.75
Enter PIN: calls $1.50

Flop (Pot : $6.00)

   
Outer Rim: checks
Enter PIN: checks
Hero : bets $4.50
Outer Rim: folds
Enter PIN: calls $4.50

Turn (Pot : $15.00)

   
Enter PIN: checks
Hero : bets $9
Enter PIN: raises $13 to $22
Hero : calls $13

River (Pot : $59.00)

   
Enter PIN: bets $32.70 and is all-in
Hero : folds
Uncalled bet ($32.70) returned to Enter PIN
Enter PIN collected $56.10 from pot
Enter PIN: doesn't show hand

Summary
Total pot $59 | Rake $2.90
Board  
Seat 1: turbo08 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 2: cityburke (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 3: Outer Rim (small blind) folded on the Flop
Seat 4: Enter PIN (big blind) collected ($56.10)
Seat 5: Hero folded on the River
Seat 6: BetzieSue folded before Flop (didn't bet)

looks fine to me

even though I'm getting exceptional odds to call the river?

You need to beat ~25 % of his range on the river and it seems you're beating only a bluff, fold is pretty fine.

fold turn

gotta fold the turn against this guy I guess but I'd bet more on turn

I would say definite fold on turn unless you have a pretty good read on him that he is going to bluff this way. I feel like if you are going to call the turn then you should call river too to completely own his bluffs when you have that read, and calling turn to fold river is just losing the max, imo.

I'd bet $11 on turn so you can put him awwwwwwin on a good river
also agree with the fold to turn raise folks.

you both are not deep, he has like $61. So just keep value betting normally. I agree with JoeDeertay's post. Why did you call the turn raise? Is it because you think your hand is better, then the river is an auto call.

Calling and hoping people check is not a good feeling.

fold turn because few people are gonna bluff raise turn and give up, so theres no point in calling it to begin with.

I agree with DooMeR, but I would bet turn bigger (probably about $12) as more value is always nice and it sets up a nicer river shove if we choose to take that route.

Maybe I misread but I thought you said he's a sick nit so I don't understand how people want to bet turn bigger to get it in on a blank river or whatever, I even doubt you are getting paid off by AQ, I'd rather check the turn to keep in the occassional AQ and ATs and shit like that and bet for value on a good river for value. Not much draws out to protect yourself from (at least, not any draws he is playing, this guy is folding any gutshot so basically draws would just be combodraws for this dude) and why bloat a pot when you probably won't get value from worse anyways from this guy, at least not by betting all streets...

Please, can somebody tell me if I'm being a huge nit for checking the turn here or not ??

Ooooh btw, as played I definitly fold the turn, he is never bluffing you here, or at least not nearly enough and if he is, he's not giving up on the river enough...

the thing is I don't know enough about the villain. I've seen some people take this line with AK as well and TPTK. They call flop, raise turn, and get it in.

Anyways I think it's a leak here by me because if I'm calling the turn I need to be calling the river. Otherwise just fold the turn.

I have this problem with TPTK type hands because sometimes I don't know where I'm at when facing returned aggression. I'm either slightly ahead or far behind.

Kilay, I really hate checking turn. It just lets him take the action away with so many hands, and you have no clue where you stand when he raises turn.

Co-incidently, I like his line as a bluff 8D

On October 10 2008 06:52 Artanis[Xp] wrote: Kilay, I really hate checking turn. It just lets him take the action away with so many hands, and you have no clue where you stand when he raises turn.

He can't c/r the turn if you aren't betting it...

check the turn imo

edit: there aren't many 16/13 6-max players giving you 3 streets here. the only hand you beat is AQ and he's ahead of you with 66/JJ/AJ/AA and splitting with AK. he's probably folding AQ a lot of the time against either a turn bet or a third barrel on the river, so just content yourself to get a 2nd street on the river.

his range is probably dominated by 66/JJ/AQ with some AA AK AJ depending on his pf tendencies. if you could eliminate the possibility of AJ/JJ/AK/AA based on his pf tendencies and also be sure that he went 3 streets w/ AQ then betting the turn has a lot of merit. but i think that these things are very often untrue of 16/13 NL50 players

I would have thought an NL50 regular/nit would be far more predictable than one at midstakes.

Therefore I believe we can eliminate the possibility of AA and JJ a very large % of the time. They will be in there sometimes, but not enough to really include in your range. AA only has 1 combo anyway, even before we discount the possibility of him 3betting it preflop. JJ will still be in there, but probably only a combo-combo and a half at a guess. It is a good spot to flat with JJ, but does a random NL50 nit recognise that? His 16/13 stats imply that he is raising preflop if he is getting involved at all.

So really, given the flop, the only possible hands we're beaten by with any kind of frequency are 66 and AJ (will he even call preflop with AJo in the BB after your UTG raise? His stats suggest he wont. AJs perhaps is likely.) He will also likely play this range rather predictably by either check/raising flop or check/raising turn. Nits do not in general slowplay hands on 3 streets. Therefore if we bet flop and bet turn and do not get check/raised, there is a very decent chance we are still ahead and beating a random AQ/ATs/JTs/QJs, etc. Unless we have specifically noticed that this player either a) will fold AQ on this board for a shove on river, which obviously means we're never getting paid by worse, or b) can slowplay sets/two pair 3 streets, there is at least some chance we're going to get paid on the river and its going to be +EV. Betting flop+turn and not being check/raised leaves us in a situation where against this player, we are either winning or splitting like 95%+ of the time. He only needs to call with a very small amount of worse stuff to make a river shove +EV. We could also not shove but instead bet half pot or so if we think that will be more +EV, and a bigger turn bet makes a river half pot bet bigger too.

It is the pure nature of the board that makes going for maximum value here so strong. Once the flop comes down, given his preflop range, we are winning an insane % of the time. Once he calls a flop bet, we are still winning or splitting an insane % of the time. If the flop was A98r it would be very different.

Also I think overestimating peoples postflop-folding ability based purely off of their 16/13 preflop stats is a rather large leak. Folding AQo to lazymej's turn bet is nigh on impossible on that turn card unless he has a pretty sick read. Having a final bet thrown at you on a random blank river is not the nicest spot to be in either, do not discount the possibility of being called. You may not call turn/call river with AQo here (I likely wouldn't call river either), but that is not important. Will a random 50NL regular call? We don't know unless we bet .

Edit: I am not saying we should stack off here given his turn raise - we should fold. My argument was for valuebetting turn+most rivers if called due to the very small # of combos that beat us and not ruling out the fact that AQo (or even worse, everybody gets suspicious) will pay turn+river. Once he check/raises turn however, his range is normally narrowed to precisely the stuff that beats us and what would be a VERY strange bluff on this board (what did he call with on flop?).

On October 10 2008 12:13 FC wrote: I would have thought an NL50 regular/nit would be far more predictable than one at midstakes. Therefore I believe we can eliminate the possibility of AA and JJ a very large % of the time. They will be in there sometimes, but not enough to really include in your range. AA only has 1 combo anyway, even before we discount the possibility of him 3betting it preflop. JJ will still be in there, but probably only a combo-combo and a half at a guess. It is a good spot to flat with JJ, but does a random NL50 nit recognise that? His 16/13 stats imply that he is raising preflop if he is getting involved at all. So really, given the flop, the only possible hands we're beaten by with any kind of frequency are 66 and AJ (will he even call preflop with AJo in the BB after your UTG raise? His stats suggest he wont. AJs perhaps is likely.) He will also likely play this range rather predictably by either check/raising flop or check/raising turn. Nits do not in general slowplay hands on 3 streets. Therefore if we bet flop and bet turn and do not get check/raised, there is a very decent chance we are still ahead and beating a random AQ/ATs/JTs/QJs, etc. Unless we have specifically noticed that this player either a) will fold AQ on this board for a shove on river, which obviously means we're never getting paid by worse, or b) can slowplay sets/two pair 3 streets, there is at least some chance we're going to get paid on the river and its going to be +EV. Betting flop+turn and not being check/raised leaves us in a situation where against this player, we are either winning or splitting like 95%+ of the time. He only needs to call with a very small amount of worse stuff to make a river shove +EV. We could also not shove but instead bet half pot or so if we think that will be more +EV, and a bigger turn bet makes a river half pot bet bigger too. It is the pure nature of the board that makes going for maximum value here so strong. Once the flop comes down, given his preflop range, we are winning an insane % of the time. Once he calls a flop bet, we are still winning or splitting an insane % of the time. If the flop was A98r it would be very different. Also I think overestimating peoples postflop-folding ability based purely off of their 16/13 preflop stats is a rather large leak. Folding AQo to lazymej's turn bet is nigh on impossible on that turn card unless he has a pretty sick read. Having a final bet thrown at you on a random blank river is not the nicest spot to be in either, do not discount the possibility of being called. You may not call turn/call river with AQo here (I likely wouldn't call river either), but that is not important. Will a random 50NL regular call? We don't know unless we bet . Edit: I am not saying we should stack off here given his turn raise - we should fold. My argument was for valuebetting turn+most rivers if called due to the very small # of combos that beat us and not ruling out the fact that AQo (or even worse, everybody gets suspicious) will pay turn+river. Once he check/raises turn however, his range is normally narrowed to precisely the stuff that beats us and what would be a VERY strange bluff on this board (what did he call with on flop?).

awesome post. i'm so happy to see someone elaborate so fully on their thoughts.

i think we've all gotta agree that folding the turn is the only way to proceed after he raises us, but a way more interesting question for me is whether we should v-bet the turn against a player with these stats on this board. we're PROBABLY cbetting the flop with 100% of our range, but how we play the turn is very sensitive imo. i agree we're way ahead of his range even if he is a 16/13 (would be great to see his 3bet %) and but his range for continuing on the flop is probably, as you said, JTs, JQs, AQ, ATs (that we're ahead of) He's not always 3betting JJ here imo (unless we know more about his 3bet % i think it's safe to assume that many NL50 TAGs who err on the side of being more tight are gonna prefer to flat JJ here). so his range we're LIKELY behind is probably JJ, 66, and of course if we're including ATs in the range we're ahead of we have to include AT LEAST AJs in the range we're behind.

ahead: JTs, JQs, AQ, ATs.
behind: 66, JJ, AJs, possibly AA (probably 3betted pf)
split: AK (probably 3betted pf though)

with those ranges a turn vbet is probably folding JTs, JQs and most of the time ATs. it MAY fold AQ because depending on our stats and whether or not the tight TAG is a thinking player, b/c would you be betting the turn w/ anything less than AJ/AK/AA/JJ/AQ/66 against this guy? he's gotta feel he's at the VERY bottom of your range with AQ. so if he's continuing with AQ, ESPECIALLY for 3 streets it's a cry call and not happening 100% of the time in a vacuum. thus i really don't see us extracting a lot of value with a turn bet that we couldn't get from a river bet, and by extension we probably get value out of nothing with a river bet if we bet the turn (because the only remaining hand is AQ and that's seriously an unthinking player or a major cry call)

so instead doesn't it make more sense to check the turn and extract maximum value from JTs/JQs/ATs/AQ by checking the turn and calling or betting the river?