Faruk - if you find a fish that folds a K on the flop, even given the 3bet, I salute you. The simple fact is that a random K is still 100% in his range here, and he will often stack off on the turn without even a diamond purely due to a feeling of commitment due to the amount that went in on the flop/he is just in general bad and not capable of folding top pair. He may even hold some random 5 or something like 88, with or without a diamond. We are just ahead of his range a crazy % of the time on the turn, and thus need to valuebet/get it in to protect against random crap with a diamond so they either make a bad call on the turn, or fold out their equity, which is substantial here in the long run with a single diamond.
Every time we check behind the turn here we're burning money. You already said we're commited, if we check behind turn and he pots river on some random blank, can we fold? In my opinion, not versus virtually anyone, ever. Thus, if he wants the money going in, its going to go in. All we can do is make sure it goes in while we're ahead and not after we've let him catch up with some random 8h8d.
If we bet turn for $42 I expect to get c/raised by a flush, yes. But also by a random K, random 5 with a diamond sometimes, 88 with a diamond, 67 with a diamond sometimes (or something equivalent) because hes crap, etc.
If he has a flush or a terribly slowplayed 55 or 33, fine, we lose a buyin. |
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