nfd + pair in a rred pot oop

Submitted by : Joe

***** Hand History for Game 2199522225 *****
$600.00 USD NL Texas Hold'em - Tuesday, September 30, 06:45:57 ET 2008
Table Juliote Real Money
Seat 1 is the button
Seat 1: URDoneSon $1424.95 USD
Seat 2: Joeik4 $1885.88 USD
Seat 3: OMGUSUCK $1340.75 USD
Seat 4: niraB $615.00 USD
Seat 5: yikes $703.00 USD
Joeik4 posts small blind [$3.00 USD].
OMGUSUCK posts big blind [$6.00 USD].
Dealt to Joeik4 [ ]
niraB folds
yikes folds
URDoneSon folds
Joeik4 raises [$18.00 USD]
OMGUSUCK raises [$66.00 USD]
Joeik4 calls [$51.00 USD]
** Dealing Flop ** [, ]
Joeik4 checks
OMGUSUCK bets [$96.00 USD]
Joeik4 ?

OMGUSUCK is a decent regular who plays kinda laggy, about 29/25 and 3-bets almost 10% pf.
We played a few 3-bet hands before in this session but they either ended on the flop or went to a cheap showdown.


What do you guys think is my best move here?
Is it better to just call here or go for a raise? And if you say raise, how much and how do you proceed in case he calls?

Edit: note that its about 220bb deep.

Joeik4 raises [$167.00 USD]

you're oop and there are 2 other comboclubs you have clusterfucked, that's enough to make it a trivial c/r for me
if he calls, am probably bet/calling most Turns but it would be nice to have more of a read of his post-Flop play particularly in 3-bet pots

Also, for what I know, villain is almost never folding anything that has me beat here unless I c/r sick big. The only thing that he might fold to a normal c/r would be QQ but even that is not for sure.

I mean, he likes to peel one more street with kinda wide range, so in case he has a marginal hand that has me beat (KQ, KT or basicaly any KX), I would have to continue the betting on turn with a rather solid bet I think.

call and when you don't hit a club proceed just like you would with AsJs, when you hit a club proceed appropriately

On September 30 2008 12:46 [vital]Myth wrote: call and when you don't hit a club proceed just like you would with AsJs, when you hit a club proceed appropriately

so play ur hand face up?

Its definately not playing ur hand faceup, I could as well have KQ there and calling and possibly a set/2-pair hand too, waiting for a good turn to c/r and get it in (i rarely play it that way but i might and some people often do).

well if u check/call to the river it's going to look like a medium-strength hand, and if u wait until the flush fills and bet out it's going to look like a flush

not saying that isn't the best way to play it


But I think i'd prefer soah's line

I think we've got a really big equity edge over his bet/"getting more money in somehow range" and we need to make sure to use that. Dunno if he views you like an assclown though so vs you he might fold like 78 of spades. That sucks but we won't get so much value out of that anyway.

I'm with soah. The only way we're not getting it in supergood vs his range or stacking him is by convincing him that we've got a clubdraw and that we hit it. That way he might not stack less then a decent K.

I am still kinda behind vs a range he is likely to get it in with me on the flop imo.

See this pokerstove result:

Board: Kc Jh 8c
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 42.393% 42.22% 00.17% 10031 41.50 { AcJc }
Hand 1: 57.607% 57.43% 00.17% 13646 41.50 { KK, JJ, 88, AKs, KJs, QcTc, Tc9c, AKo, KJo }

I only have 42% against this range. Given its ~220bb deep the pot is still too small to give us proper odds for that I think.

Also if he doesnt reraise back and just calls and turn comes some random blank, then my equity vs the same range is only 28%. And adding weaker kings to his range wont improve my equity much, still only about 30%:
Board: Kc Jh 8c 2h
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 30.000% 30.00% 00.00% 792 0.00 { AcJc }
Hand 1: 70.000% 70.00% 00.00% 1848 0.00 { KK, JJ, 88, AKs, K9s+, QcTc, Tc9c, AKo, K9o+ }

On September 30 2008 14:50 Joe wrote: I am still kinda behind vs a range he is likely to get it in with me on the flop imo. See this pokerstove result: Board: Kc Jh 8c equity win tie pots won pots tied Hand 0: 42.393% 42.22% 00.17% 10031 41.50 { AcJc } Hand 1: 57.607% 57.43% 00.17% 13646 41.50 { KK, JJ, 88, AKs, KJs, QcTc, Tc9c, AKo, KJo } I only have 42% against this range. Given its ~220bb deep the pot is still too small to give us proper odds for that I think.

it seems very unlikely that will happen. facing a large checkraise, I am sure the most likely thing that will happen is he will fold.

worst case scenario is he raises the turn bet.

42% is fantastic when trying to abuse fold equity.

and does he really get it in with AKo?

Also if he doesnt reraise back and just calls and turn comes some random blank, then my equity vs the same range is only 28%. And adding weaker kings to his range wont improve my equity much, still only about 30%: Board: Kc Jh 8c 2h equity win tie pots won pots tied Hand 0: 30.000% 30.00% 00.00% 792 0.00 { AcJc } Hand 1: 70.000% 70.00% 00.00% 1848 0.00 { KK, JJ, 88, AKs, K9s+, QcTc, Tc9c, AKo, K9o+ }

he will fold the weaker kings on the turn (i'd assume).

if he has air - pretty big % of his range, check/calling is better than check/raising, allows him to give us more money when he decides to keep bluffing, esp since some of the cards he will bluff are the cards that improve our hand

if he has a combo draw - a very small % of his range, check/raising is solidly better than check/calling. when we call and he hits a club, we're getting the money in anyway. but we also give him a chance to hit 6-9 outs in the chance that he has, say, QTcc or 9Tcc. we also give him a chance to just check/fold out when all his draws miss, but sometimes he'll keep firing his combo draws on the turn as well and we'll be recovering some of the value we missed by not raising the flop. so, for two reasons, i don't think check/raising just to bloat the pot vs a combo draw is a good enough reason to check/raise - 1. there are such a tiny % of combo draws relative to other hands in his range, and 2. we aren't gaining a huge amount of value against a combo draw by raising as opposed to calling anyway.

if he has any better hand than ours (except QQ) - a fair % of his range, check/calling is clearly better than check/raising

if he has a worse made hand than ours - a pretty small % of his range, check/calling is slightly better than check/raising


state your disagreements and let's continue, because i honestly don't think it's even close here and i am surprised that people are focusing on the combo draws in his range as the basis for their arguments

and, about abusing fold equity........that's only relevant if we can't already beat the hands that we are trying to make him fold....................and we have AJ on KJ8......what better hands are we trying to fold out? it's worth spewing 220 BBs vs. AK+ just for the opportunity to make him fold QQ?

i definitely think check/raising is +EV and that's not a question at all, but i think check/calling is far more +EV (just for clarity)

Yea I am with Myth on this, really, by playing the hand aggresively we allow him to lose very little with hands we have crushed and only get the big money in with a range that is probably slightly ahead of our hand. Oppossed to if just call him down on the flop he is prob. gonna put some more money in with a wider range on the turn (bluffs etc.).

Only problem is that if we miss and he fires 3 barels we probably have to fold on the river and he might occassionally have airball there.

so I guess the difference between our views is that I think villain is likely to fold QQ/AK/AA

with a hefty flop C/R and a turn allin, there is no way for villain to put us on flush draw

Corrrrrrrwin I didn't mean for that to be my sole point, being oop without a particularly good read on villain's post-Flop play was my sole point to c-ring and decreasing the pot-size to stack ratio while OOP.

It's pretty much stylistic thing imo - I mean, I will develop a dynamic with some regs where I'm c-cing here but usually I'm c-r or c-f. Like, Joe (no offence at all, dunno how much you've changed your game since we played on Stars or Microgaming ) but if I see you c-c this Flop it's like OK THREE BARREL TIME CAUSE HE AINT GOT MORE THAN WEAK TOP PURR NOM SAYIN?

!!! EDIT !!! - ok wtf for some reason when I read the OP I thought it was 5/10 LOL

sigh

ok wow I am just sooo much more for c/cing now I've seen it's like over 200bb deep, I can imagine I would also lead like 1/3 pot on a lot of Turns or something like that