What's wrong with my bluff?

Villain is 20/14/2.2 & 5.9% 3bet over 158 hands

Submitted by : tsasaobao

***** Hand History for Game 8235218094 *****
$50.00 USD NL Texas Hold'em - Friday, September 26, 02:43:27 ET 2008
Table Kishner (6 max) (Real Money)
Seat 1 is the button
Seat 1: ju5tnutz ( $52.50 USD )
Seat 2: Vyciune ( $50.25 USD )
Seat 3: eyes7475 ( $71.20 USD )
Seat 4: Siness ( $83.85 USD )
Seat 5: johan313 ( $50.00 USD )
Seat 6: Hero ( $50.50 USD )
Vyciune posts small blind [$0.25 USD].
eyes7475 posts big blind [$0.50 USD].

Holecards
Dealt to Hero
Siness folds
Hero raises [$1.50 USD]
ju5tnutz calls [$1.50 USD]
Vyciune folds
eyes7475 folds

Flop (Pot : $3.75)

   
Hero bets [$2.40 USD]
ju5tnutz calls [$2.40 USD]

Turn (Pot : $8.55)

   
Hero checks
ju5tnutz checks

River (Pot : $8.55)

   
Hero checks
ju5tnutz bets [$8.00 USD]
Hero raises [$25.00 USD]
ju5tnutz raises [$40.60 USD]
Hero folds
ju5tnutz wins $23.60 USD
ju5tnutz wins $55.65 USD from main pot

no, you're wrong. unless you know more about this opponent you're making a ridiculous amount of assumptions.

he'd be capable of checking behind on the turn w/ 66, 99, A9 and any 78 combination. plus, a lot of players are gonna check a 9 behind on this turn. none of that range is folding the river.

a bunch of bad players love to pot the river with hands that they're never folding cuz even bad players are liable to know it looks like a bluff, and they wanna get max value out of a cry call. it's not like the 10 is a huge scare card for him to be bluffing at, which isn't to say it can't be a random bluff but i'd want to have a lot more information before attemping this play since you've gotta win it like 70% of the time

i think just about anyone will look u up in this spot.

why would he bet so big if he thinks you have air(which you appear to)
are you sure just calling isnt better in any case?

yes his line is a bit odd but these big random bets are often some supernut hand which just bets big because it doesnt really expect a call, or is trying to make up for somewhat silly play earlier in the hand

calling is horrible obviously lol

and also i forgot to mention i guess that your bluff represents absolutely nothing since there's nothing in the world you'd check raise on the river

how is a call worse than the raise?
how often is he gonna bluff with better in this spot?
how often is he gonna VB like this with something that will fold to the raise?

FOLD > call

without a note that so and so loves potting behind on the river w/ missed flush draw i don't see how this is ever a call

the raise is obviously even worse

You're playing NL50. People would play AA like this.. fishy players play huge hands so slow sometimes.

I don't think bluffing turn here is good. Nothing has changed for an Ace and river completes no draws beyond 78. Also no one reshoves on the river with air at NL50 unless they are INSANE.

I bet flop then check turn and give up. Pick a better spot to bluff.

problem with your bluff is that you're trying to bluff him off of 87

but saying that his river bet looks like he doesn't want you to call makes no sense whatsoever. he called the flop and checked behind on the turn and he suddenly pots the river. i mean, come on, he doesn't have busted clubs. and that's the only think you're hoping he folds

actually i'm with fox that AA could play this way too.

Nobody gives 3bets any respect anymore. You want to bluff this, gotta be a 4bet shove on the turn

He'd 3bet AA pf with his 3bet % and af I think...and even if he played it this way till the river, he'd only call, not 3bet.

why is that? would he be scared of 99? -_______-

On September 26 2008 15:16 hawking wrote: Nobody gives 3bets any respect anymore. You want to bluff this, gotta be a 4bet shove on the turn

lol wat?

What are you representing here? I'm assuming you're a TAG reg so your standard nuts line is bet bet shove. Bet check check/raise makes no sense. I'd think and 4 bet air there if I were him, hoping you were on missed clubs. That said it's also easily possible that river helped him with the OESD or even something crazy like TT. It's also possible for him to have a monster (a 9 or 66) and check behind turn in the hope that you hit your draw. Position allows him to check turn without losing much value because he knows he's betting/raising whatever happens on the river.
In short, you're not representing much, your line has no credibility and his line of flat flop check turn bet river isn't as weak as you seem to think.