[NL25] Fold overpair?

no stats/notes, got lucky, is this a fold?

Submitted by : k4ir0s

PokerStars Game #19906013055: Hold'em No Limit ($0.10/$0.25) - 2008/08/26 - 02:36:57 (ET)
Table 'Seppina' 9-max Seat #9 is the button
Seat 2: Lachesis85 ($42.95 in chips)
Seat 3: k4ir0s ($25.45 in chips)
Seat 5: trottingkrip ($24.10 in chips)
Seat 6: Dooley2005 ($26.50 in chips)
Seat 7: Orion101 ($13.55 in chips)
Seat 8: k030101 ($24.15 in chips)
Seat 9: O-TiGreTon-O ($25 in chips)
Lachesis85: posts small blind $0.10
k4ir0s : posts big blind $0.25
chase2chase: sits out

Holecards(Odds)
Dealt to k4ir0s
trottingkrip: calls $0.25
Dooley2005: folds
Orion101: calls $0.25
k030101: folds
O-TiGreTon-O: folds
Lachesis85: folds
k4ir0s : raises $1.25 to $1.50
trottingkrip: calls $1.25
Orion101: folds

Flop(Odds) (Pot : $3.35)

   
k4ir0s : bets $2.60
trottingkrip: calls $2.60

Turn(Odds) (Pot : $8.55)

   
k4ir0s : bets $5
trottingkrip: raises $15 to $20 and is all-in
k4ir0s : calls $15

River (Pot : $48.55)

   

Showdown
k4ir0s : shows (a full house, Jacks full of Kings)
trottingkrip: mucks hand
k4ir0s collected $46.15 from pot

Summary
Total pot $48.55 | Rake $2.40
Board  
Seat 2: Lachesis85 (small blind) folded before Flop
Seat 3: k4ir0s (big blind) showed and won ($46.15) with a full house, Jacks full of Kings
Seat 5: trottingkrip mucked
Seat 6: Dooley2005 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 7: Orion101 folded before Flop
Seat 8: k030101 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 9: O-TiGreTon-O (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)

lol obviously a fold and you sucked out on the river.

On August 26 2008 00:08 Exhilarate wrote: lol obviously a fold and you sucked out on the river.

I know I sucked out, I said I got lucky. its not really an obvious fold to me, thats why I posted for help=/

well, think to yourself, what are you beating that calls the flop and shoves the turn?
only bluffs and a flush draw. he pretty much reps Kx, 77, and possibly 66 that didn't believe you hit anything on the flop.

oh yeah the title is wrong too, JJ isn't an overpair on this board, lol

On August 26 2008 00:32 Exhilarate wrote: well, think to yourself, what are you beating that calls the flop and shoves the turn? only bluffs and a flush draw. he pretty much reps Kx, 77, and possibly 66 that didn't believe you hit anything on the flop. oh yeah the title is wrong too, JJ isn't an overpair on this board, lol

we beat bluffs and flush draws...

where do you indicate the probability of him having Kx 77 or 66 vs the probability of him having a bluff or a flush draw? not only this but he might also take similar action with any kind of pair 'valueshoving' believing we ourselves are on a flush draw ie 88 or 99?

you can't just say 'fold' without at least justifying why you exclude the hands we beat and only include the ones that beat us. your 'analysis' sounds extremely results-oriented to me.

here is my analysis:

he limps utg, likely to be a small pocket pair. Unlikely to be AK at all. Possibly KQ KJ or KTs. We hold JJ so that makes KJ less likely in his range of Kx trips.

Usually fish (and I qualify this person as a fish because he's limped utg) slowplay their huge hands, and play passively with 2nd-nuts type hands eg. KT. So I don't think he's shoving turn with KT, he might do this with KQ. If they believe their hand is strong they also try to extract as much value as possible ie. minraising instead of shoving their whole stack in your face.

Now, there are many different breeds of fish, I've already mentioned passive fish but there are also the weird agro fish that spew in retarded spots, such as if he held a "strong" combo-draw such as A6s or 98s, 68s, 45s 56s here. Or as I mentioned in my previous post, "value shoving" a pocket pair because they just automatically put you on a flush draw and assume their hand is good. Or he can just have some random piece of shit bluff or A7, some weird crap.

So this decision is not an "automatic fold" against an unknown fish without any stats. You have to think more carefully about it, I still think it is a fold given that passive fish are more common than agro fish, and agro fish probably move on the flop rather than turn, but it's a lot harder than "lol auto fold, u obv suck out goot"...such thinking screams results orientation to me.

you always have some solid advice, thanks pokerdoc

lol i never said it's an auto fold, of course it depends
against an unknown i'm probably pitching it cause he'll show me Kx so often rather than just a naked fd or combo draw
if it's some half stacked fish doing some spewtastic crap then i'll probably get it in, but eh
not being results oriented at all, just my personal experience