[25NL] - Semibluff went wrong, or did it ?

dont listen to emerce please

What the hell is going on in this thread.

You need 5:1 to call this if you're sure he has the straight. If you count his stack + the pot with your dead money, you're at 5:1 exactly, pretty much.

You can call here, barely... sometimes he doesn't have a str8, either.

Hm. More viewpoints plz.

Fold as played. Folding 44 OOP vs a steal is normal for the reasons emerce wrote. It's OK to 3bet 44 sometimes too in this situation.

errr, sorry but 100bb deep, im calling a standard open from ANY position in ANY position... if ONLY for set odds

On August 24 2008 16:56 goodguysm wrote: You're totally overanalyzing this. Call and hit a boat ship ship

the problem with calling 44 oop only 100 deep is that he will rarely pay you off if you hit your set because his cutoff range is wide. you need him to stack off about half the time to make this profitable. if you continue on calling that pf and check fold every flop you miss this is going to be a spew.

On August 25 2008 02:21 emerce wrote: the problem with calling 44 oop only 100 deep is that he will rarely pay you off if you hit your set because his cutoff range is wide. you need him to stack off about half the time to make this profitable. if you continue on calling that pf and check fold every flop you miss this is going to be a spew.

That's why I don't just c/f whenever I miss but this time this even went wrong as well. Even then I am kind of thinking that I misplayed the turn which bothers me. I probably should have folded this preflop but as explained, I thought his range was tighter than it turned out to be.

Btw, after I played the hand I did think I could have 3-bet this preflop as a semi-bluff idea, I can catch a 4 for the best hand and got good fold equity since I later noticed he actually was stealing with a pretty wide range.

warning: this may be the worse advice you ever read.

I actually don't think calling here is good. Imo, on the turn, b/f or c/shoving or c/f are better options

Tons of other hands are calling the flop other than an 8, and actually I expect most 8 X (offsuit) to fold the flop to the 3bet since realistically they will be folding the turn around 80%(?) of the time.

I think TP + flush draws/TP/combo draws/two pair are mostly calling there, with two pair and combo draws being less likely candidates since these holdings in an aggro's hand are shoving that flop alot. (also sets are definitely not in his range imo)

Consider the line you took, and what your opponent most likely thinks you have because of it:
c/r, c looks a bit too much like a busted FD or bottom pair + FD, in a passive players hand imo. Considering that, I think the villains betting range on the turn is much wider than just an 8; especially if he is aggressive. Your hand just picked up a ton of equity but you basically just told him "I give up on the hand, you bet... I fold".

I'm not on my laptop now and dont have pokerstove here, so this is just a rough guesstimation of how we stand against his range if you c/shove the turn (actually...i did it backwards, its how his range stands against our hand). I put him holding an 8 55% of the time.




3betting this pre isn't a bad idea as well. but as played I'm betting, c/f or c/shoving the turn, depending on how spewy I feel

Wow, I like how you worked yourself there KTD, but I am quite interested, if you are bet/calling (and even c/shoving, I like c/shoving better because it widenes his betting range), what do you expect a call from... I am not sure... Maybe I just give way too much credit, I am not sure...

On August 25 2008 16:26 Kilay wrote: Wow, I like how you worked yourself there KTD, but I am quite interested, if you are bet/Folding (and even c/shoving, I like c/shoving better because it widenes his betting range), what do you expect a call from... I am not sure... Maybe I just give way too much credit, I am not sure...

fyp.
i expect him to fold to c/shove alot of the time. i do like the c/shove as well, since as u said...it gives him room to bluff with worse

dont tell me you folded that one...

if he's halfdecent TAG he would reraise flop with set
and the only 8X hands that he has are 88 98 and maybe T8

How does he not have 2 pair here at least as often as an 8? Aren't at least some percent of overpairs in his range here, especially if he can think you have a FD? There's no way I can fold this for $6.50 more.

Ok, I think I suck and probably should have c/shoved here... I think that's the best alternative to c/f'ing for earlier given reasons.

ye, though c/f isnt bad.
just calling is a big no no though.

On August 26 2008 07:05 killThemDonks wrote: ye, though c/f isnt bad. just calling is a big no no though.

Break it down for me, why is calling a big no no in that situation?

On August 27 2008 07:51 Shakedown88 wrote: Show nested quote + On August 26 2008 07:05 killThemDonks wrote: ye, though c/f isnt bad. just calling is a big no no though. Break it down for me, why is calling a big no no in that situation?

Pretty easy, give me, let's say, give me about 10 possible river cards you do NOT hate seeing...

Ofcourse you still hate most when you got money in on turn but you are almost never going to be able to play the river profitably, it basically allows him to play perfect checking his missed rivers and bet when he basically knows when he is ahead.

I have to say - great post - certainly got a lot of people thinking!

IMO - calling pf isn't bad - I am never folding here - probably calling 50% and 3betting 50%. I really don't think this is a spew as long as you are 100BB deep and you don't play fit or fold poker.

Love the c/shove turn - I need to do more of that.......he could easily show up here with an over pair or combo draw.

You have to fold on the flop your hand is completely shitty. any time you hit your straight outs there will be a four straight, which will be scary to your opponent, not to mention if an 8 falls he has you beat with any 9x hands. your two outs to a set are also bad for the same reason. after all this if he happens to have a flush draw that kills 2 of your already bad 10 outs. this hand is just going to be very hard to play profitably.

i agree with the flop fold over c/r for sure.

Turn CRAI you've got a $16.50 pot and if you wanted to shove, you've got $6.50 you'd be calling, and an additional $14 that you'd be shoving giving your opponent like 37:14 to call. Getting like 2.75:1 I don't know if your opponent folds overpairs/flush draws. he probably isn't folding them 100% of the time. you're risking like $20.50 in making this shove though, with an EV of .x%[1(16.50) when he folds] + .x[t .12(51) calls w/ oveset] + .x[.23(51) calls w/ straight] +.x[.74-.87(51) combodraw or weaker]. so a turn c/crai is either very profitable if he overvalues overpair / overplays flush draw or combodraw or very spewy if he's always showing you a straight or overpair. if you don't have any information about this sort of question, i don't think many NL25 players bet a draw or overpair on this turn, so it's a fold. if he is a ridiculous aggro monkey postflop who is firing a second barrel without a straight/overset then this is a shove.

b/f seems like a bad deal because you probably fold everything you beat and pretty much nothing that you don't. your EV here can never be much better than neutral at best if you're b/f'ing while if you c/f it down (vbetting a proper river) then your EV is positive, probably like $3 or something