[25NL] - Semibluff went wrong, or did it ?

Submitted by : Kilay

***** Hand History for Game 19867394372 *****
$25.00 USD NL Texas Hold'em - Sunday, August 24, 04:17:47 ET 2008
Table Mufrid II (Real Money)
Seat 6 is the button
Seat 1: Kilay7 ( $32.45 USD )
Seat 2: pedro41 ( $25.80 USD )
Seat 3: spartacus999 ( $21.15 USD )
Seat 4: hok_DK ( $34.65 USD )
Seat 5: MercuriusAA ( $25.25 USD )
Seat 6: shalnark ( $26.50 USD )
Kilay7 posts small blind [$0.10 USD].
pedro41 posts big blind [$0.25 USD].

Holecards
Dealt to Kilay7
spartacus999 folds
hok_DK folds
MercuriusAA raises [$0.85 USD]
shalnark folds
Kilay7 calls [$0.75 USD]
pedro41 folds

Flop (Pot : $1.95)

   
Kilay7 checks
MercuriusAA bets [$1.25 USD]
Kilay7 raises [$4.00 USD]
MercuriusAA calls [$2.75 USD]

Turn (Pot : $9.95)

   
Kilay7 checks
MercuriusAA bets [$6.50 USD]
Kilay7 folds
MercuriusAA wins $9.50 USD from main pot
MercuriusAA wins $6.50 USD from main pot

You're totally overanalyzing this.
Call and hit a boat ship ship

fold pf - out of position no set implied odds.
but as played:

turn - why put him on eights? i think you still have to get it in. he will raise flop with sets. he will bet flush draws all day. you hit your man on the turn. ship the money in the middle

???
Since when did we fold low pp's against standard raises?

since 44 is a marginal holding and plays bad out of position

dont listen to emerce please

What the hell is going on in this thread.

You need 5:1 to call this if you're sure he has the straight. If you count his stack + the pot with your dead money, you're at 5:1 exactly, pretty much.

You can call here, barely... sometimes he doesn't have a str8, either.

Hm. More viewpoints plz.

Fold as played. Folding 44 OOP vs a steal is normal for the reasons emerce wrote. It's OK to 3bet 44 sometimes too in this situation.

errr, sorry but 100bb deep, im calling a standard open from ANY position in ANY position... if ONLY for set odds

On August 24 2008 16:56 goodguysm wrote: You're totally overanalyzing this. Call and hit a boat ship ship

the problem with calling 44 oop only 100 deep is that he will rarely pay you off if you hit your set because his cutoff range is wide. you need him to stack off about half the time to make this profitable. if you continue on calling that pf and check fold every flop you miss this is going to be a spew.

On August 25 2008 02:21 emerce wrote: the problem with calling 44 oop only 100 deep is that he will rarely pay you off if you hit your set because his cutoff range is wide. you need him to stack off about half the time to make this profitable. if you continue on calling that pf and check fold every flop you miss this is going to be a spew.

That's why I don't just c/f whenever I miss but this time this even went wrong as well. Even then I am kind of thinking that I misplayed the turn which bothers me. I probably should have folded this preflop but as explained, I thought his range was tighter than it turned out to be.

Btw, after I played the hand I did think I could have 3-bet this preflop as a semi-bluff idea, I can catch a 4 for the best hand and got good fold equity since I later noticed he actually was stealing with a pretty wide range.

warning: this may be the worse advice you ever read.

I actually don't think calling here is good. Imo, on the turn, b/f or c/shoving or c/f are better options

Tons of other hands are calling the flop other than an 8, and actually I expect most 8 X (offsuit) to fold the flop to the 3bet since realistically they will be folding the turn around 80%(?) of the time.

I think TP + flush draws/TP/combo draws/two pair are mostly calling there, with two pair and combo draws being less likely candidates since these holdings in an aggro's hand are shoving that flop alot. (also sets are definitely not in his range imo)

Consider the line you took, and what your opponent most likely thinks you have because of it:
c/r, c looks a bit too much like a busted FD or bottom pair + FD, in a passive players hand imo. Considering that, I think the villains betting range on the turn is much wider than just an 8; especially if he is aggressive. Your hand just picked up a ton of equity but you basically just told him "I give up on the hand, you bet... I fold".

I'm not on my laptop now and dont have pokerstove here, so this is just a rough guesstimation of how we stand against his range if you c/shove the turn (actually...i did it backwards, its how his range stands against our hand). I put him holding an 8 55% of the time.




3betting this pre isn't a bad idea as well. but as played I'm betting, c/f or c/shoving the turn, depending on how spewy I feel

Wow, I like how you worked yourself there KTD, but I am quite interested, if you are bet/calling (and even c/shoving, I like c/shoving better because it widenes his betting range), what do you expect a call from... I am not sure... Maybe I just give way too much credit, I am not sure...

On August 25 2008 16:26 Kilay wrote: Wow, I like how you worked yourself there KTD, but I am quite interested, if you are bet/Folding (and even c/shoving, I like c/shoving better because it widenes his betting range), what do you expect a call from... I am not sure... Maybe I just give way too much credit, I am not sure...

fyp.
i expect him to fold to c/shove alot of the time. i do like the c/shove as well, since as u said...it gives him room to bluff with worse

dont tell me you folded that one...

if he's halfdecent TAG he would reraise flop with set
and the only 8X hands that he has are 88 98 and maybe T8

How does he not have 2 pair here at least as often as an 8? Aren't at least some percent of overpairs in his range here, especially if he can think you have a FD? There's no way I can fold this for $6.50 more.

Ok, I think I suck and probably should have c/shoved here... I think that's the best alternative to c/f'ing for earlier given reasons.

ye, though c/f isnt bad.
just calling is a big no no though.