[25NL] - Semibluff went wrong, or did it ? - Page 2

On August 26 2008 07:05 killThemDonks wrote: ye, though c/f isnt bad. just calling is a big no no though.

Break it down for me, why is calling a big no no in that situation?

On August 27 2008 07:51 Shakedown88 wrote: Show nested quote + On August 26 2008 07:05 killThemDonks wrote: ye, though c/f isnt bad. just calling is a big no no though. Break it down for me, why is calling a big no no in that situation?

Pretty easy, give me, let's say, give me about 10 possible river cards you do NOT hate seeing...

Ofcourse you still hate most when you got money in on turn but you are almost never going to be able to play the river profitably, it basically allows him to play perfect checking his missed rivers and bet when he basically knows when he is ahead.

I have to say - great post - certainly got a lot of people thinking!

IMO - calling pf isn't bad - I am never folding here - probably calling 50% and 3betting 50%. I really don't think this is a spew as long as you are 100BB deep and you don't play fit or fold poker.

Love the c/shove turn - I need to do more of that.......he could easily show up here with an over pair or combo draw.

You have to fold on the flop your hand is completely shitty. any time you hit your straight outs there will be a four straight, which will be scary to your opponent, not to mention if an 8 falls he has you beat with any 9x hands. your two outs to a set are also bad for the same reason. after all this if he happens to have a flush draw that kills 2 of your already bad 10 outs. this hand is just going to be very hard to play profitably.

i agree with the flop fold over c/r for sure.

Turn CRAI you've got a $16.50 pot and if you wanted to shove, you've got $6.50 you'd be calling, and an additional $14 that you'd be shoving giving your opponent like 37:14 to call. Getting like 2.75:1 I don't know if your opponent folds overpairs/flush draws. he probably isn't folding them 100% of the time. you're risking like $20.50 in making this shove though, with an EV of .x%[1(16.50) when he folds] + .x[t .12(51) calls w/ oveset] + .x[.23(51) calls w/ straight] +.x[.74-.87(51) combodraw or weaker]. so a turn c/crai is either very profitable if he overvalues overpair / overplays flush draw or combodraw or very spewy if he's always showing you a straight or overpair. if you don't have any information about this sort of question, i don't think many NL25 players bet a draw or overpair on this turn, so it's a fold. if he is a ridiculous aggro monkey postflop who is firing a second barrel without a straight/overset then this is a shove.

b/f seems like a bad deal because you probably fold everything you beat and pretty much nothing that you don't. your EV here can never be much better than neutral at best if you're b/f'ing while if you c/f it down (vbetting a proper river) then your EV is positive, probably like $3 or something