[NL25]AK on AQT board

Villian is 29/11/1, 80% cbet.
The question here is i guess is does he have AJ/KQ enough for me to justify this call? Unless there is something else im missing.

Submitted by : SfydjkLm

PokerStars Game #19735993238: Hold'em No Limit ($0.10/$0.25) - 2008/08/19 - 12:16:57 (ET)
Table 'Freia' 6-max Seat #4 is the button
Seat 1: misterdklw ($25.10 in chips)
Seat 2: S1cKL1FE ($26.45 in chips)
Seat 3: mellee85 ($16.80 in chips)
Seat 4: peiscottster ($35.05 in chips)
Seat 5: PPPP77 ($25.40 in chips)
Seat 6: dandaman1108 ($11.70 in chips)
PPPP77 : posts small blind $0.10
dandaman1108: posts big blind $0.25

Holecards(Odds)
Dealt to PPPP77
misterdklw: folds
S1cKL1FE: folds
mellee85: folds
peiscottster: raises $0.50 to $0.75
PPPP77 : raises $1.25 to $2
dandaman1108: folds
peiscottster: calls $1.25

Flop(Odds) (Pot : $4.25)

   
PPPP77 : checks
peiscottster: bets $1.75
PPPP77 : calls $1.75

Turn(Odds) (Pot : $7.75)

   
PPPP77 : checks
peiscottster: bets $3.25
PPPP77 : raises $3.25 to $6.50
peiscottster: raises $24.80 to $31.30 and is all-in
PPPP77 said, "whoo!"
mellee85 said, "whoo"
mellee85 said, "héhé"
mellee85 said, "lets do it"
mellee85 said, "come on !!"
PPPP77 : calls $15.15 and is all-in
Uncalled bet ($9.65) returned to peiscottster
mellee85 said, "go go go go"

River (Pot : $51.05)

   

Showdown
PPPP77 : shows (two pair, Aces and Eights)
peiscottster: shows (two pair, Aces and Queens)
peiscottster collected $48.55 from pot

Summary
Total pot $51.05 | Rake $2.50
Board  
Seat 1: misterdklw folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 2: S1cKL1FE folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 3: mellee85 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 4: peiscottster (button) showed and won ($48.55) with two pair, Aces and Queens
Seat 5: PPPP77 (small blind) showed and lost with two pair, Aces and Eights
Seat 6: dandaman1108 (big blind) folded before Flop

Here's my line of thought,
his range is something like mid pp- QQ,AJ-AK.
I should have tested his bet on flop.
However on turn it was like 17 dollar pot w 15 behind, when he shoved i figured its most likely AQ/AK, AQ ill be 27% dog, but i figured in the end i have to put 15 in pot to win 32ish, and i figured he might very well be a journey man w AJ/KQ hoping to complete his straight, perhaps even KQ of dimonds there enough % of the time for me to justify that call. I figure the times he gets set of 8s/Ts/Qs is somewhat offset by the times he misses with something like 9s or Js and tries to bluff me out of pot, representing the straight.

FOLD
THE
TURN
you are rarely ahead here. what's his call 3bet %?

On August 19 2008 11:23 killThemDonks wrote: FOLD THE TURN you are rarely ahead here. what's his call 3bet %?

only 33.
editerr thats fold 3bet, so 67 call 3bet).

sorry..should rephrase that...i mean call PF 3bet%?
just curious.

On August 19 2008 11:40 killThemDonks wrote: sorry..should rephrase that...i mean call PF 3bet%? just curious.

yea thats what i meant actually he calls PF 3bet 67% of the time

cool. so about 7% of hands he calls 3bets with. He can show up with KQ+ type hands here often. I would lead the flop since you have initiative. and b/f the turn.

Also..u are oop..raise more preflop, at least 3$ to go. AK is on average beating his pf 3bet calling range alot. as played definitely fold the turn.

dont post results next time either. opinions may be biased.

hmmm..on second thought. this may not be a great board to cbet on.
flop: c/c
turn: b/f (?)

Heres what FA had to say, maybe it'll help someone else out too.

[14:56] Sergei~Freelance: yo^_^
[14:56] FA.: hoi
[14:57] Sergei~Freelance: i wanna ask you something^_^
[14:57] FA.: go ahead
[14:57] Sergei~Freelance: http://www.liquidpoker.net/poker-forum/542279/_NL25_AK_on_AQT_board.html
[14:57] Sergei~Freelance: ^_^
[14:57] Sergei~Freelance: whaddoya think
[14:57] Sergei~Freelance: xd
[14:58] FA.: bet flop or
[14:58] FA.: check fold flop 
[14:58] FA.: then you wont be in this spot on the turn
[14:58] FA.: or if you call flop
[14:58] FA.: you should call turn
[14:58] FA.: not raise it
[14:58] FA.: if he's bluffing
[14:58] FA.: he's going ot fold
[14:59] FA.: and like very few hands that you beat can call you
[14:59] FA.: like
[14:59] FA.: AJ.. maybe JJ
[14:59] FA.: but
[14:59] FA.: JJ doesnt bet
[14:59] FA.: I would probably bet fold flop or c/f flop
[15:00] Sergei~Freelance: but if you would by some weird coincidence get yourself in a situation like this when u face a shove would u call?
[15:00] FA.: hrm
[15:00] FA.: our turn minraise is extremely gay
[15:00] FA.: so maybe I'd be like "well I've induced it!!!!"
[15:00] FA.: I dunno, I think you played the hand really weird ;P
[15:01] FA.: the turn should only be raised
[15:01] FA.: if you think he's going to bluff raise
[15:01] FA.: or if he's going to call with a lot worse but never go allin wtih worse so you can easily fold I guess
[15:04] Sergei~Freelance: well i dunno might be cos i had a guy call my shove w bottom pair a few hands earlier that i played it like that
[15:04] Sergei~Freelance: but i really felt that taking into account pot odds and ranges its a coinflip
[15:04] FA.: I think most people
[15:04] FA.: will just call you on the turn with
[15:04] FA.: AJ, QJ, JJ, KQ
[15:04] FA.: and in fact
[15:04] FA.: they probalby wont even bet it
[15:08] Sergei~Freelance: well my line looked a lot like chasing the straight imo w limping flop, and raising turn, but ofc KJ isnt in my 3bet range so i figured that my minraise would indeed be shove inducing and that most of the time he has AK here too
[15:08] FA.: why most of the time
[15:08] FA.: if he's calling 3bets so wide
[15:09] FA.: and if you think he has AK
[15:09] FA.: the minraise doesnt make much sense either unless you want him to fold it
[15:09] FA.: 
[15:09] FA.: which he wont
[15:09] FA.: like raising that turn
[15:09] FA.: you get action mostly from better
[15:09] Sergei~Freelance: well yes i do realise that the hand was played awfully up to the turn
[15:09] FA.: calling you continue to get action from his
[15:09] FA.: weaker hands and bluffs
[15:09] FA.: and dont lose a lot vs his better hands
[15:09] FA.: also you shouldnt give randoms at nl25 credit for thinking about what your hand looks like
[15:09] Sergei~Freelance: im mostly interested if the ranges would justify the call
[15:10] Sergei~Freelance: which i guess they wouldnt
[15:12] Sergei~Freelance: so one move back, just peel the river?
[15:12] FA.: yeah fors ure
[15:12] FA.: on the turn after his shove
[15:13] Sergei~Freelance: alright well thanks gotta run to run now then^^
[15:13] FA.: you can probably call
[15:13] FA.: but
[15:13] Sergei~Freelance: i have a judo tournament in sept 20th 
[15:13] Sergei~Freelance: getting ready^_^
[15:13] FA.: I mean it depends, if hecan have
[15:13] FA.: T8, QT, type hands
[15:13] FA.: if he raises those
[15:13] FA.: and if he plays them this way
[15:14] FA.: if he does I think you get something like the right odds to call..
[15:14] FA.: but you shouldnt be in thsi spot 
[15:14] FA.: ok gl =)
[15:14] Sergei~Freelance: mind if i post this convo on lp, maybe itll help someone else out too?
[15:14] FA.: also, he probably he probably has less of the 8Ts type hands than
[15:14] FA.: AQ
[15:14] FA.: like less often
[15:14] FA.: no I dont mind

he's right. Though I think you are getting ok odds to call the flop, you are c/f most turns and any non-J (A,K) turn puts you in a tough spot alot of times against this guy.

i don't think 8T, or QT type hands are in his (raising + calling 3bet) range tho.

I really need to kill this voice in my head that tells me "TPTK SHOVE, DONT EVEN THINK!"

It's really stopping me from progressing... I mean, I can't even force myself to really try to understand the problematics behind this hand... fuck.

On August 19 2008 17:05 NiTE wrote: I really need to kill this voice in my head that tells me "TPTK SHOVE, DONT EVEN THINK!" It's really stopping me from progressing... I mean, I can't even force myself to really try to understand the problematics behind this hand... fuck.

well i have a different kind of problem i fold top pair top kicker way too much=P
trying to fix that now, but as you can see it went terribly wrong this time!

your pf raise is way too small to me. im sure by 67% you mean he called 2 out of 3 and thats the extent of the sample. In any case i usuaully raise $1 opens to $3.50+ and $0.75 opens to $3.25+

no loose-ish player is going to fold to $1.25 more in position. Also the bigger 3bet makes your range look stronger to these players, little 3bets always look like random broadway shit and midpairs to them

in answering your question typical villain has AJ KQ here id guess about 0% after shoving. if AJ bets it almost certainly flats the minraise

well actually its a 200 hand sample. Not too much but i doubt it was only 3 hands that he got 3betted
ps: thx for advice.