[PLO 50] Deep Draw

JScarne is a regular, knows I'm a thinking player.

First, a few questions before the flop:

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Does JScarne's range include quality AAxx, where xx are 9, T, J, Q, K?
Does JScarne's range include crappy AAxx, where xx is 27, 37, etc?
Or, do most players this deep raise any AAxx?

A few questions on the flop:

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Given his lead into 2 people, how does this effect his range? Should we assume he has JJ, AA, 77 (JJ / 77 being more likely than AA?)? Or, can he do this with similar drawing hands like TQKx? Or can he be doing this w/ AJ?

In this spot, is it best for me to rep AAxx and raise? Does he give up JJ / 77? Or call / call / fold if I miss?

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Any other thoughts on what is optimal?

I played with JScarne and my toughts are:

1. He's tricky and a thinking player too, I guess he's cappable to call with AAxx. Also I have him at 95/60 over +120 hands, so anything its in his range
2. He donkbet pot with a wide range, so raising there is standard
3. If he knows you're a decent player, then he has a big hand there, AAxx or other set with redraws or blockers imo (JJAx, 77AJ, JJKQ, ...), the weaker hand he might have is AJQK. The problem is if you're against AKQT

I play the hand the same way against him, becouse the equity against a set is good enough anyways and by calling you're giving him some information while you dont know if he's doing that with only the ace or J7xx (he did it to me some times).

I really don't like raising on this flop when there isn't any need for you to play the hand that fast. All you do is put yourself into a really deep flip versus the vast majority of his range. Look at the fact that you also have an unlikely nut-completion card in any 8 + a backdoor FD and I think we have a solid argument for flatting especially because you are so deep.

If you flat flop the following might happen:
1. You end up with a nut flush draw + made nut straight on the turn. He ties for the straight with you and you get all-in on a free-roll.
2. You flat and the turn comes a non-straight completing club. You pick up massive outs and get to flat any bet he makes on the turn with impunity and perhaps sometimes your flat on the flop buys you a free river card. You make a runner-runner flush and he doesn't believe you so he pays off.
3. You flat Flop/Turn and pick up an 8 at any point. This is a totally disguised completion card to your draw and he might pay it off simply because he doesn't think its likely that you have xx109.

I don't see why its so good to just toss away all of these possible scenarios to get it all-in on the flop as a flip or worse.

You flopped the nuts, what's the question. Get it in.

In other words: well played.

WTF. I don't understand Omaha at all... how did he flop the nuts there????????

On July 24 2008 21:42 Loco wrote: WTF. I don't understand Omaha at all... how did he flop the nuts there????????

by nuts, he means there is no way i'm going to fold and I have TONS of outs, but def not "the nuts". basically, the nut draw.

I know Bejamin1 plays a "low variance" style of PLO, and in this case doesn't play it fast like I did. And while it is lower variance, it might also be lower equity (my range here vs villains range). Vs certain opponents, like STATIONS, I feel calling, hitting, and extracting value may have higher EV, but I feel you have to be playing against weaker opponents to have it be noticeably higher...

Twisted and Forrest seem to think that it's my job to put it in on the flop. I feel like there is fold equity on the flop with my raise, and if he calls flop I think I can be semi-bluff pushing the turn a decent amount of the time with success. This has the benefit of helping me in future situations against this same opponent when I do actually flop the nuts... like my AAA dominating JJJ on board above and shipping the flop.

Two lines seem appropriate, and I'm still not sure which is better:

1. Call, hit, extract value. (lower variance)
2. Raise (all in vs reraise), semi-bluff push turn. (higher variance)

a flop call from position is optimal

all your draws are gutshots and your flush draw is backdoor

this is the greatest calling spot ever.




and it's not just to reduce variance. calling here is just straight up way more profitable

this is the greatest calling spot ever.

On July 25 2008 17:42 asdf2000 wrote: a flop call from position is optimal all your draws are gutshots and your flush draw is backdoor this is the greatest calling spot ever. and it's not just to reduce variance. calling here is just straight up way more profitable

agreed, his lead screams set, our outs are deceptive and implied odds are good. Trying to rep AA is preety optimistic IMO

also if hes a good smart player he wont reraise AA 250bb deep OOP, it should be in his range, probably even more likley than 77xx since that's a crumy hand to defend OOP