set of 3s deep ,dry board weird action

Submitted by : lebowski

PokerStars Game #19011456427: Hold'em No Limit ($0.50/$1.00) - 2008/07/22 - 09:31:16 (ET)
Table 'Skadi' 6-max Seat #1 is the button
Seat 1: dretje1971 ($226.10 in chips)
Seat 3: lebowskiguy ($300.55 in chips)
Seat 4: Stuifje ($107 in chips)
Seat 5: rocsnirp ($101 in chips)
Seat 6: steylo ($102.55 in chips)
lebowskiguy : posts small blind $0.50
Stuifje: posts big blind $1

Holecards
Dealt to lebowskiguy
rocsnirp: raises $2 to $3
steylo: folds
dretje1971: calls $3
lebowskiguy : calls $2.50
Stuifje: folds

Flop (Pot : $10.00)

   
lebowskiguy : checks
rocsnirp: bets $6.75
NoTitleDoc joins the table at seat #2
dretje1971: calls $6.75
lebowskiguy : raises $15.25 to $22
rocsnirp: calls $15.25
dretje1971: raises $29 to $51
lebowskiguy : calls $29
rocsnirp: raises $47 to $98 and is all-in
dretje1971: raises $125.10 to $223.10 and is all-in
lebowskiguy said, "**** me"

One of the few times you can fold a set. You should have really folded to dretje's $29 raise.

Original raiser seems to have solid stats, so let's assume once you flat the raise to 51$, he won't overplay AK A3 as your check raise on the flop is very strong on an A high dry board. We can give him a range of AT, AA, TT. The key in the hand imho is that the side pot is almost as much as the main, and the fact that UTG raiser has a very narrow range here makes you a sick favourite for the side pot as his range blocks the donks potential hands / outs.

Scenario 1: I used these ranges:

Hand 0: 47.259% 47.26% 00.00% 30726 0.00 { 3c3h }
Hand 1: 37.652% 35.41% 02.24% 23022 1458.00 { AA, TT, ATs, ATo }
Hand 2: 15.089% 12.85% 02.24% 8352 1458.00 { TT, ATs, ATo }

Scenario 2: the donk doesn't 3bet EVER, highly unlikely imho:

Hand 0: 38.715% 38.72% 00.00% 31464 0.00 { 3c3h }
Hand 1: 30.642% 28.85% 01.79% 23445 1458.00 { AA, TT, ATs, ATo }
Hand 2: 30.642% 28.85% 01.79% 23445 1458.00 { AA, TT, ATs, ATo }

You are still looking good for the side pot ( 57.3% to win it) as well as the main.

Now to make things really complicated, let's say that despite the laggy stats of the UTG raiser, he only shows up with AA / TT here, since he gets huge action from both you and the donk.

After flatting the 29$ more, you have to call 47$ to win the main pot of 304$ and 125.1$ to win the side pot of 250.2$.

Hand 0: 04.577% 04.58% 00.00% 1116 0.00 { 3c3h }
Hand 1: 90.513% 90.51% 00.00% 22068 0.00 { AA, TT }
Hand 2: 04.910% 04.91% 00.00% 1197 0.00 { TT, ATs, ATo }

You pay 172.1$ to win 304$*0.04577 + 250.2$*0.04577/(0.04577+0.0491) = 134.6$ so now your equity is really bad.

However, I think we can include AT in the showing range of UTG raiser in which case you can get it the money in as per the first 2 ranges I listed.

tbh I found the donks line scary because he is so freaking passive its unbelievable

I dunno, I wouldn't give the original raiser that much respect that he wouldn't ship it in with AK here. They could also have like AT both. It's still 100NL

200bb deep makes it hard but when you beat the donks' range it's not that bad to ship it in because the side pot is bigger than the main pot. I'd have a hard time folding. The chance the donk has AT or A3 is bigger than TT I think (dunno with the combinations and stuff, w/e).

i'd say ship

results?

results may vary

i think i'd call 6.75$ on flop

i'd fold after dretje1971: raises $29, it looks like he has to have TT O.o

fold

dretje1971: raises $29 to $51 lebowskiguy : folds

fyp

i would fold to dretje raise for sure

Pfft nits.

On July 23 2008 15:48 [vital]Myth wrote: Show nested quote + dretje1971: raises $29 to $51 lebowskiguy : folds fyp

well the way I saw it the fish thought he had the nuts but that could mean he had A10/A3
then the utg raiser shoves and I'm thinking he can't have tp if he's not retarded so it's either A10/1010/AA/mayyyybe A3 for him
so if I won the side pot from the fish I'd still be about 50$ down,which is what I had already invested.
Then the fish instashoves another buy in on top of that so I'm pretty sure he doesn't have A3 now

one of the first hands ive seen where i'd fold a set on a non straight flush board

I bet hero folded and both of them had AT and the 3's would have held.

they made it incredibly easy for you to fold
although i'd probably tank down to last second and fold then deciding i made a horrible fold until they table TT

On July 24 2008 03:43 Twisted wrote: Pfft nits.

If we should be results oriented you'd be 100% winner Twisted
I fold, "solid tag stats" guy from utg is an amazing idiot having AK, donk has A10

I hate my life then realize turn was an ace lol
obv stars will reward the wrong decision amirite?

I think the fold was probably good though because I had no read that the utg guy was so retarded,vs the passive donk alone I'd prob would have just folded on the shitty turn or get it in on a brick one

Playing this limit myself I would never fold here. I agree with Twisted. The chances of the players having AK/AT/A3 are way higher than an overset. I think it is a leak to ever fold a set at 100nl because the players ranges are way wider than a rational thinking person would ever give credit for.

The only time I feel this is a clear fold is if its a player like house_advantage or some other 14/9/3 reg.

stats don't really show if someone is retarded and the utg raiser had decent ones