Interesting spot WSOP

How would you guys play this hand that I had on the first day of the WSOP? I had 17k in chips late in the third level, blinds 150-300. Next level is 150-300 with 25 ante. My table is challenging, with an aggressive kid sitngoer, Antonio Esfandiari and Layne Flack stacked on my left.

I picked up QdQh in the cutoff, and raised to 900. Antonio called in the bb in such a way that i was sure he wasn't slowplaying anything. He had a 60k stack -- he was running hot and dominating the table. The flop came Tc8c6d, and he lead out $1200. I've played with Antonio for years, and i know he's capable of donking into the raiser with the nuts. In fact he's already done it once this tournament.

What to do?

Call, see what he does on turn.

i'd raise to about 3k to get some information

On July 20 2008 12:21 SenSatiOn121 wrote: i'd raise to about 3k to get some information

lol, if we are raising its not for information, its to get allin.

I would call the flop and go from there, prob not folding turn either

Can those of you who prefer flat call please elaborate on your reasoning for me? I find several reasons why flatting may not be optimal:

1) It gives a free card to hands that will fold to a raise.
2) I have approximately 60% equity against his donk/shove range (hands that have me beat, all combo draws, and the good T's).
3) A huge part of the deck is a scare card on this flop, which means that against a strong player like antonio, i will be folding incorrectly a lot on the turn.
4) When I do get a non-scare card turn, i will still be busting most of the time against the made hands that beat me.

I strongly agree that raise/folding is the least preferable play.

On July 21 2008 15:11 whitepanties wrote: 2) I have approximately 60% equity against his donk/shove range (hands that have me beat, all combo draws, and the good T's).

If this is taken for a fact, then what is this discussion about? Are you basically trying to figure out whether it is better to get it in on the flop or on an ok turn?

Or that "fact" is not really a fact?
I dont think you have 60% equity against the range you specified. Did you count all the 2 pair combinations? And what do you consider a "good Ten"? Do you think he is getting it in with worse than KT? Or even with KT?

I have 53% against a very tight donk/shove range, as specified below:

JJ-66,AcJc,ATs,Ac9c,Ac7c,Ac6c,Ac5c,Ac4c,Ac3c,Ac2c,KcQc,
KcJc,KTs,Kc9c,Kc7c,Kc6c,QcJc,Qc9c,Qc7c,Qc6c,J9s+,T7s+,
96s+,86s+,76s,7c5c,7c4c,6c5c,6c4c,5c4c,4c3c,ATo,KTo,J9o,
T8o,97o,86o.

Essentially this is every hand that has me beat already, every reasonable flush, straight and combo draw, JJ, AT and KT. If you think he is unlikely to call the offsuit connector hands preflop, my equity is obviously higher (59%).

This totally discounts the possibility of him donk/shoving worse, which i think is incorrect having played a lot with antonio. It also discounts the possibility of him donk/folding to a raise.

Yes, i 'd like your opinion of whether it is better to raise or call the flop given this analysis.

2) I have approximately 60% equity against his donk/shove range (hands that have me beat, all combo draws, and the good T's).

wtf if you have that much equity how are we not shoving here?

because you're not sure about this point you aren't shoving here right?

if that's the case id flat and reeval turn. if he's the type ot continue barrelling on bluffs/semi-bluffs then i'd much prefer a flat here and shoving a clean turn. if his leading range is more weighted towards made hands i raise/call flop as you said it's possible he's lead/shoving with worse here.

why would we shove !

Well I of course dont know how Antonio plays, buts given what you said, here goes a range I think he can reasonably have and go allin on the flop with:
JJ, TT, 88, 66, AcQc, AcJc, ATs, ATo, Ac9c, Ac7c, Ac5c, Ac4c, Ac3c, Ac2c, KcQc, KcJc, Qc9c, Jc9c, T8s, 97s, 86s, 7c6c

Board: Tc 8c 6d

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 48.327% 47.76% 00.57% 23167 276.50 { QdQh }
Hand 1: 51.673% 51.10% 00.57% 24790 276.50 { JJ-TT, 88, 66, AcQc, AcJc, ATs, Ac9c, Ac7c, Ac5c, Ac4c, Ac3c, Ac2c, KcQc, KcJc, Qc9c, Jc9c, T8s, 97s, 86s, 7c6c, ATo }

You are slightly behind this range. And if you didnt think he was slowplaying a big hand, then I think JJ is way less likely too. If you remove JJ from that range, you are 42.808 : 57.192 undergod.

Of course he will sometimes donk lead w/ hands that will fold to any more action, but tbh I dont see that many such hands. JT, QT, maybe something like 99 too, maybe J9s other than clubs, dunno.

with that stack id def raise / get it in

stacks are good for him to bet/3bet allin on that flop with several combo draw with pair type hands or just nut draws which you have beat, gl

On July 20 2008 11:34 whitepanties wrote: How would you guys play this hand that I had on the first day of the WSOP? I had 17k in chips late in the third level, blinds 150-300. Next level is 150-300 with 25 ante. My table is challenging, with an aggressive kid sitngoer, Antonio Esfandiari and Layne Flack stacked on my left. I picked up QdQh in the cutoff, and raised to 900. Antonio called in the bb in such a way that i was sure he wasn't slowplaying anything. He had a 60k stack -- he was running hot and dominating the table. The flop came Tc8c6d, and he lead out $1200. I've played with Antonio for years, and i know he's capable of donking into the raiser with the nuts. In fact he's already done it once this tournament. What to do?

go for a pee, then call flop

To me flatting is pretty weak, since i am +ev against so much of his range, and there are so many gross cards on the turn. I also think raising for info is weak, since i am +ev (i believe) against his shoving range.

I wound up raising him pot to 5k, and calling his shove. He showed me the 97hh of course. gg. I felt like an idiot during my walk of shame, but the more i think about this spot the more i feel that he just played perfectly, and i might not have had a better play unless i'm able to do a super soul read on the turn.

btw, when i've asked my pro friends about this spot, the cash players all thought my play was terrible, and the tourney players all thought my play was forced.

raise/get it in

stack id def raise / get it in

tough spot due to people at the table, but the raise-get it in sounds right