My hand sucks, turn it into a bluff?

Submitted by : DustySwedeDude

** Hand # 2095376638 starting - 2008-07-16 15:52:06
** Arnoid 2 [Hold 'em] (3.00|6.00 NL - Cash Game) Real Money
Sacre sitting in seat 1 with €606.00
flipius88 sitting in seat 2 with €917.30[Dealer]
Jokinho sitting in seat 3 with €1116.75
Dustylove sitting in seat 5 with €1054.65
Higer sitting in seat 6 with €600.00[Sitting out]
Jokinho posted the small blind - €3.00
Dustylove posted the big blind - €6.00
** Dealing cards to Dustylove :,
Sacre folded
flipius88 folded
Jokinho raised to €21.00
Dustylove called - €21.00
** Dealing the flop:,,
Jokinho bet - €24.00
Dustylove called - €24.00

Turn (Pot : $0.00)


Jokinho bet - €66.00
Dustylove called - €66.00

River (Pot : $0.00)


Jokinho bet - €111.00
Dustylove ???

Problem is, there should be a decent percentage of club draws in his 2 barrel range, its also difficult to rep clubs, since the queen is a club and there are few draws with which you could call flop. The Ac makes it even less likely you backdoored him (A2-AJcc all of which reasonable flop floats are now dead). Reping a rivered 2 pair is also unbelievable. So we're repping a slowplayed hand basically, which isnt that great when we're trying to push people off a hand.

So we have a situation in which hes almost never 2-3 barreling with complete air, if he barreled turn with a draw it got there, hes more likely to have hit the clubs than we are, and we can rep very little. I'd say this is a very easy fold and I can't imagine why you decided its a good spot to make a move.

I figured he was from finland so he's dubble barreling like 100% and unless I've seen it I don't give people credit for hand reading and since I don't have any history with him I don't know if I think that he thinks I can turn a made hand into a bluff or call down really light. Thus I feel that he needs a rrflush, AQ or some kind of set to valuebet this river and call and if he decides to 2nd barrel (somewhat likely since it's bvb and everything) I think that's the perfect card to 3-barrel.

Fancy play syndrome?

Hm, well in my opinion, people will very rarely bluff at this turn card with no draw at all. And even if they do, theres not much reason to overplay your hand.

Well, this is a quite an assumption youre making --> I suspect hes from Finland --> He probably 3 barrels everything here. I think you should think it trough. And also, even if it was true - should you change your strategy and how exactly?

Let him bluff and tarp him Phil Hellmuth style?

problem is i don't think he finds a fold with anything aces up or better here because you could be raising all of that.

i dunno whether i'd rather call or raise but this is a fold.

yea there's no way he's folding AQ here but if he can have any other Aces up I figured he could have pretty much anything. Thanks for the opinions guys.

On July 16 2008 08:07 DustySwedeDude wrote: I figured he was from finland so he's dubble barreling like 100%

Hahahahahahaha nice. I don't have much to contribute since I'm a newb but those are some sick analyses. Love the logic behind it

he could just have nothing and the ace is a good 3-barrel card, just bluffcatch him

Against a random I would just assume his range is polarized here, and as such there is no reason to turn your hand into a bluff. Since there's no reason to assume hes firing bare Ax on the turn and there's no reason to assume he fires KQ for value on the river, I like calling/folding much better than turning out hand into a bluff (since he can have 46/clubs/aces up, all of which aren't folding). If you had a slightly better read that perhaps he barrels the turn to get you off 5x or 88, then the river is a call, otherwise its a fold IMO.

On July 16 2008 17:55 n0rthf4ce wrote: Against a random I would just assume his range is polarized here, and as such there is no reason to turn your hand into a bluff. Since there's no reason to assume hes firing bare Ax on the turn and there's no reason to assume he fires KQ for value on the river, I like calling/folding much better than turning out hand into a bluff (since he can have 46/clubs/aces up, all of which aren't folding). If you had a slightly better read that perhaps he barrels the turn to get you off 5x or 88, then the river is a call, otherwise its a fold IMO.

Very nice analysis! Have my babies sir!

Ok, I can live with that. Thanks a lot. Also, make more vids.

lol how in hell does jokin ho sound finnish to u

Jokhinjo or something could be some hockey player or whatever?

The name sounds like he's from Finland so my best guess is that he's a slightly aggro TAG who can't handread.

:D you are my hero!

only flaw in the thoughtprocess - that itself is most magnificent - is that jokinho is not a finnish sounding name and definately not icehockey player.

great to contribute to high stakes section too btw, i feel like the elite of lpnet now that iam actually able to bring importnant insight to highstakes analysis

Obv I read it wrong in the heat of battle and I'm very sorry if I've given the impression that I look down on the great nation of Finland (I don't, objectively speaking it's a cooler country then Sweden and I think I read somewhere that you guys have more blond chicks). I did however get something out of this topic, which is that just because you feel that you're hand looks pretty stupid and you figure that the river is a card the opponent can bluff a lot and maybe valuebet somewhat thin (I'd valuebet like A2/A4/whatever here if I don't know that the opponent is tricky) you can't just raise them and hope they fold.

A couple of straights also hit so I figured he might do a stupid fold if he feels like he's "on top of his game" or whatever stupid shit people do (hey, I am up a lot at these stakes this summer and I suck, so they must be retarded). As for results he tanked for like 15 seconds or so and folded when I raised to 333 which I feel indicated that he actually folded a real hand, but it might've been posturing or a "OMG I SO WANT TO SHOVE"-tank.

I looked at it afterwards and didn't really feel good about the play so I posted it.

if you can beat only a bluff (let's say you have Ace high and your opponent has absolutely nothing) and your opponent bluffs only about 10% of the time